And the winner is...

Some quick thoughts about this NBA Finals match up before I give you my breakdown and prediction.

-The Mavericks have home court advantage in the series, but the real winner in that aspect of the Finals is Dave Russell, the director of advertising for American Airlines. I’m guessing that in 2000, when AA decided to sponsor the Miami Heat’s new arena, and a year later when they put their name on the new facility in Dallas, that they never imagined that all seven games of the NBA Finals would either be played in the America Airlines Center (in Dallas) or the American Airlines Arena (In Miami).

-There is not one person who can honestly say that before the season began, or even before the playoffs began, they thought that neither Detroit nor San Antonio would be in the Finals. It would be like filling out your bracket this year and not having UConn, Villanova or Duke in the Final Four.

-Neither team should be complaining about fatigue, rust or tired legs. Both squads have played 99 games so far this season, with the Mavericks having a record of 72-27 and the Heat coming in with a 54-35 mark. Each team is 12-5 in the playoffs.

Every basketball writer in the country will be coming out with one of those tale-of-the-tape breakdowns where they compare everything from who has the better small forward to whose trainer’s heal injuries faster to whose Gatorade is at a cooler temperature. Instead of doing that, I’ll give you three reasons why the Heat can win, three reasons why the Mavericks can win, and then finally, my prediction.

THREE REASONS WHY THE MIAMI HEAT WILL WIN THE NBA TITLE

Pat Riley
I’m not taking anything away from Avery Johnson, who deserved Coach of the Year and has handled his team at a Joe Torre/Bill Belicheck level. But in his entire coaching career, AJ has won a total of 94 games. Here is Miami’s biggest advantage. Coach Riley has won 73 more games then that, and that’s only if you count Pat’s playoff victories. Sure it’s easy to win in the post-season when you have Kareem and Magic, Shaq and Wade. But this man took the Knicks to the brink of an NBA title with his number two scorer being John ‘2-for-18 from the field, including 0-for-11 from three-point range in game seven of the NBA Finals’ Starks. You know the Heat are going to bring it defensively, and that all comes from Riley.

Experience
Some people say experience is overrated. You know what kind of people those folks are? The ones with no experience. Sure, you have to do something first to gain experience, but that first time can be your downfall. Shaq lost his Finals virginity in 1995 by being dominated by Hakeem Olajuwon, but a few years later, he was leading his Lakers past Reggie Miller (who was in his first and only Finals) and the Pacers. The Heat have a total ten Finals appearances between them (half of those being Shaq), but compare that to the two (Keith Van Horn's Nets lost to Shaq in '02 and Darell Armstrong played with Shaq in their 95 loss) from Dallas, and the experience edge lies with Miami.

Motivation
Yes, both teams will be motivated like T.I. to win their franchise’s first ever NBA title. But here is why the Heat hold the mental edge: The Mavericks dominated them in the regular season, winning both of the games by an average of 24.5 points, and shooting more then 50% better then Miami from three point range. (Dallas was 19-31, Miami was 2-20) The Heat are out to prove that they are a different squad then the one that was last on the floor with the Mavs. Shaq is motivated to silence the haters who said the Lakers made the correct choice in keeping Kobe. Flash Wade is attempting to get a leg up on LeBron in the battle to become best player in the next 10 years. And Jason Williams, Gary Payton, and Antoine Walker are out to show that they can be team players as well as the winners that the national media doubted that all three would ever be.

THREE REASONS WHY THE DALLAS MAVERICKS WILL WIN THE NBA TITLE

Dirk

With apologies to O’Neal and Wade, Dirk Nowitzki is the best, most unstoppable and most fun to watch player in this series. Hell, other then LeBron and Kobe, Dirk is the best, most unstoppable and most fun player in the entire league. Miami has nobody that has any chance of being able to stop the seven-foot German. Put a big guy on him and he’ll step back and shoot right over them. Put a three on him and he’ll set up near the free-throw line and either shoot that silky smooth jumper or just drive to the basket. And unlike Miami’s big fella, Dirk actually makes his free throws, shooting around 90% from the line in both the regular season and playoffs.

The Bench
I expect Adrian Griffin to start for Dallas, since he matches up better with Dwayne Wade then Devin Harris does. This means that when Avery Johnson needs to give his starting five a rest, he can bring in Jerry Stackhouse, an excellent scorer, Harris, an above average scorer and passer, Keith Van Horn, a good outside shooter, Eric Dampier, a big man who can block shots and rebound, as wells as Marquis Daniels, a top notch perimeter defender. Miami, who is the older team, does not have this many bodies to run out there every night, which could be dangerous if Wade isn’t 100% or Shaq gets in foul trouble.

Home Court
Though I feel that the 2-3-2 format of the Finals gives an unfair edge to the road squad, I would still much rather have home court advantage. Unlike baseball, every home court in the NBA is the same. And unlike college football or hoops, there are no marching bands to distract road teams. But being at home means not having to adjust to a new time zone, being able to have a usual routine and just basic familiarity with everything. As I write this, I realize that the Mavericks have won all three of their playoff series’ on the road while the Heat have won two of three away from South Beach. Regardless, having more home games can never be a bad thing.


So after all of this, who am I picking? On April 22, on this very blog, I picked Mark Cuban and his Mavericks to be hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy. Now, only four wins away, I can’t change my pick, though Miami has been playing very well recently.
Dallas in seven MVP-Josh Howard