Mid-season report

Now that we’ve seen the NL choke again and we know that an American League team will have home field advantage in the World Series, lets take a look back at those beginning of the year picks and see how they are doing. (See blog posts on 3/31 and 4/1 for original picks)

American League
East:
What I said then--
“The Yankees may have signed Damon away from their rivals, but I don't know how much longer this team made up of older players can keep it going.”

What I’m saying now--
Back in March, I picked the Blue Jays to win the division and the Red Sox to come in second and win the Wild Card. Though a little bit off, I still like both teams, especially the Sox, but because of the emergence of Detroit, it seems highly unlikely that the Wild Card will come out of the East. It will come down to whom, among these two and of course the Yankees, makes the biggest acquisitions at the trade deadline. I’m putting my money on Boston, because they have the most complete team right now, and they have the best GM in the division. I expect the Blue Jays and Yankees to stay close until the end, because all three are very good teams. But I was correct that Toronto made some great acquisitions, that the Yankees were too old, and that Baltimore and Tampa Bay sucked.

Division MVP---David Ortiz (Boston)
Division Cy Young---Jonathan Papelbon (Boston)

Central:
What I said then--
“I felt the {White} Sox downgraded when they traded Aaron Rowand for Jim Thome, and rookie Brian Anderson is still a big question mark”

What I’m saying now--
Well, at least I was half-right back in March. Anderson, with his .192 average, is one of the worst everyday starters in all of baseball. And Rowand has played tremendous for Philadelphia. But Thome has been 500% better then I thought he would be. If you told me that he would hit 30 home runs and drive in 77, I would have been surprised. But if you told me he’d put up those numbers by the All-Star break, I may have been tempted to slap you like Rick James. As for the rest of the division, I was dead wrong on Detroit, who has been the best team in the entire Major Leagues this season. Unless one of these two teams falls apart like Kerry Wood’s shoulder, they should both be playing in October. The Twins have also been a pleasant surprise, but they are unfortunately in this division instead of the any of the other five, where they would be no worse then six games back instead of the 11.5 they currently are.

Division MVP---Jim Thome (Chicago)
Division Cy Young---Francisco Liriano (Minnesota)

West:
What I said then--
“While I love Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero, I don't trust Garret Anderson, Casey Kotchman or Dallas McPherson to drive them in”

What I’m saying now--
I picked Oakland at the beginning of the year, but once again, they have been first half disappointments. The A’s are currently two games above .500, and are tied with the Texas Rangers for first place. Anaheim and Seattle are also right there, with the entire division within 2.5 games of each other. I’m going to stick with the A’s, because they usually do much better in the second half of the season then the first. I also like the fact that they are in first place with Jay Payton leading the team in hitting and having Rich Harden only start six games. Texas is a good team, but still is pitching short. Same with the Angels, except that they lack hitting. Seattle is the wild card in this division because they have what I feel is the most complete team in the West, but other then Ichiro, none of their key players are in their prime. If the old guys can keep it up and the young’ins can step up their game, the Mariners could be a surprise division winner.

Division MVP---Ichiro (Seattle)
Division Cy Young---John Lackey (Anaheim)

National League
East:
What I said then--
“Bobby Cox is still running the show in the Dirty South, and as long as he can put on the uniform, I'm gonna pick the Braves to win the division.”

What I’m saying now--
When I wrote that quote in April, maybe I was just trying to say that it’s time for Bobby to hang it up. Because under his leadership this year, the Braves are 13 games back and nine games under .500. The Mets on the other hand, the team I said would finish third, are clearly the best team in the National League. Everyone on their team, from young guys like Jose Reyes (23 years old) to the old folks like Julio Franco (who will be 48 in August), is performing at a high level. If New York stays healthy, they should be considered favorites to go to the World Series from the National League. As for the other teams in the division, they might as well start playing for 07. (Florida was doing that from day one, so there already a step ahead) The Phillies have been playing at a David Terrell level inconsistency all season (Meaning they showed flashes of brilliance, but mostly they’ve been disappointments), the Nationals just don’t have the pitching, and Florida has been doing better then expected.

Division MVP---David Wright (Mets)/ Alfonso Soriano (Nationals)
Division Cy Young---Tom Glavine (Mets)

Central:
What I said then--
“If Prior and Wood can combine for 40 quality, pain-free starts, the Cubs should be around in September.”

What I’m saying now--
Wow, I thought that new ‘Chappelle’s Show’ was funny. But compared to me, that was nothing. 40 starts? Considering we are midway through the season, by my count, these two should have 20 starts combined. And since each of them has four, that means we are only 12 starts short of an already low standard. Never again will I put down any sort of prediction on these two players. Anyways, the rest of the Central has been a disappointment, not at the Prior/Wood level, but a disappointment nonetheless. The Cardinals are just playing well enough to be four games up, but there nowhere close to being the squad they’ve been the past two seasons. Cincinnati was a nice early-season surprise, but they have no pitching after Bronson ‘Two night hangover’ Arroyo. Houston has the pitching, but no hitting. And Milwaukee is missing a bullpen. The Cubs and Pirates are still trying to get their winning percentage over .400.

Division MVP---Albert Puljos (Cardinals)
Division Cy Young---Carlos Zambrano (Cubs) *homer pick*

West:
What I said then--
“This division actually improved over the winter, which is quite sad, because it still is really bad.”

What I’m saying now--
While there are no great teams in the NL West, I was wrong to say the division is really bad. Because all five teams actually are still in contention, with the first place Padres and last place Diamondbacks only five games apart. San Diego has gotten some clutch hitting from Mike Piazza, while the Giants have been pretty good even without any production from that jacked up left fielder that should be in jail. (Yes I know his name, but I promised I would never write his it, along with the Dallas WR whose initials stand for Time Out) LA has gotten some great play from Nomar Garcaiparra, who of course found his hitting stroke the day he left Wrigley Field. And the D-Backs and Rockies are both still in contention, despite the fact that 3/4 of the baseball watching world has never heard of most of their players and have no clue who their managers are.

Division MVP---Nomar Garciaparra (Dodgers)
Division Cy Young---Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks)


Some random thoughts

-Not to go overboard on this, because I know I wrote about this last time (twice) and the time before, but I just don’t like the Ben Wallace signing at all. I tried to get myself excited for it and I just can’t. Two more reasons why this won’t work. One, all of the NBA rule changes over the past few years have focused on increasing perimeter play and cutting down on big men in the paint controlling the game. And as we saw in the playoffs this season, it has worked. Wallace will be less of a factor then he’s been with Detroit because the rules will no longer allow him to intimidate opponents with his physical play and aggressive rebounding. And the second reason is because, this is hard to believe, Big Ben is a worse offensive player the Tyson Chandler was. The Bulls’ problems the past few years have been to get consistent scoring, not defense. Wallace can’t put points on the board, and he can’t play in the fourth quarter, because he shoots worse from the line then Shaq does. For a team that has young guys at every position, how does it make sense to add a slower, older player who gets four more rebounds then Chandler did for seven million more a year?

-Nice job of Phil Garner doing his best Dusty impression last night as he watched his bullpen blow the All-Star game. Keeping your best fielder’s (Rolen and A.Jones) on the bench while Cabrera and Beltan have both played over five innings each makes a lot of sense.

-Was it just me, or did David Eckstein look like Mini-Me next to Scott Rolen during the pre-game intros?

-‘If it’s in the game, it’s in the game’….Sorry, I’m just really pumped for NCAA Football 2007. Six days.

-My friend Jake said it best. Like the guy who quit his job because he felt he was being made fun of, the dude who got in a fight because someone said hi to his girlfriend at a party and the woman who hated when people were “playing with her phone”, Zinedine Zidane’s head butt on Sunday was an example of ‘When keepin it real goes wrong’. But it sure as hell was an awesome way to leave a game.