The big game and week 11

I know, I know, this is the space is usually saved for discussing the NFL. This week I could ramble on about the chances of Indianapolis finishing 16-0, break down the big game between the Chargers and Broncos or brag about my beloved Bears tying an NFL record that another Bear set only a year ago. But I’m not going to do any of that. That is because the biggest game of the weekend won’t be played on Sunday or Monday. None of the players will be paid. And there will be more talent on the field then there is during the Detroit-Arizona game the next day.

The game I’m previewing is obviously number one Ohio State versus number two Michigan. As much hype as a regular season college football game can get, this one is getting twice that. First off, you have the biggest rivalry in the sport. Then you have the two best teams in the country competing for one sport in the national title game. (Some are saying the may both be in that, but let’s hope not) There’s the Heisman favorite, a speedster at wide receiver and a tremendously fast and aggressive defense wearing scarlet and grey. There’s a back that doesn’t fumble, a group of future first round NLF’ers and a much criticized head coach rocking the maze and blue. The crowd, all 106,000 of them, will be going crazy on every play. It’s Ohio State-Michigan. It’s Buckeyes-Wolverines. It’s red state-blue state. So who is going to win? I see three big questions looming over this classic match up.

1---Can the Michigan D contain Troy Smith?
During his sophomore and junior seasons, Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith was kind of like a poor-mans Vince Yong. He was a solid passing quarterback that had a tremendous set of wheels, a guy who could take off and run at any moment. In fact, he often chose to show off his wide set of skills against Michigan. In 2004, Smith threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns while running for 145 yards and another score. Last season he did more with his arm, throwing for an even 300 yards and a touchdown and also running for another six points. Ohio State won both games.

This season, Smith hasn’t been as much of a runner. But don’t confuse that for not being efficient. He is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy. He has thrown for over 2,100 yards, as well as 26 touchdowns and only four picks. So an obvious key for the Wolverine defense will be stopping him. I expect UM to try to put tremendous amounts of pressure on Smith, forcing him to make quick decisions and giving him little time to find his receivers. Michigan’s front seven is better then any other unit in the country, but they will need a big effort out of their secondary, who must cover the OSU backs and wideouts effectively to make sure Smith stays contained.

2---Who will win the turnover battle?
When a great team is facing a mediocre one, turnovers become less of a factor. Against Northwestern last week, Ohio State lost a fumble and threw an interception, and still won 54-10. But when a great team faces another great team, those offensive opportunities lost have huge effects on the game. That is why holding onto the football will be a major key in this game. In his last two games versus Michigan, Troy Smith has yet to turn it over. Meanwhile in those same two games, UM quarterback Chad Heane has thrown two interceptions. Both Ohio State and Michigan have good defenses, but not good enough to stop the opposing offense when they have a short field. For the record, Michigan’s turnover differential is an impressive plus 12 (22 takeaways, 10 giveaways), which is eighth in the country. Ohio State is even better at plus 14 (27 takeaways, 14 giveaways), second best in the nation. Whoever holds on to the ball the best has a great chance of leaving Ohio Stadium with the W.

3---Is Mario Manningham at 100%?
Super Mario used to be a video game plumber. Then it became a famous Pittsburgh hockey player. Now he is a wide receiver for Michigan. Yes, Mario Manningham is a super player, but he can really only help out his team in this game if he is healthy enough to make plays. Because when at full strength, there are only a few receivers better then Manningham in the entire country. This season, in which he only played seven games, Super Mario has caught 26 passes, nine of which have gone for touchdowns. In UM’s two biggest games thus far this season, at Notre Dame and versus Wisconsin, Manningham has a total of 11 receptions, 250 yards and five touchdowns. The team scored no fewer then 27 points in the games Manningham has started in. But on October 7 versus Michigan State, M.M. tore something in his knee and was forced to mix the next four games. After that, the Wolverines offense went from explosive to dormant. They scored only 20 against Iowa and only 17 versus Penn State and Northwestern. The team struggled to beat Ball State.

Luckily for Big Blue, Super Mario is back. He played last week at Indiana, though it was obvious he wasn’t back to where he was pre-injury. (Two catches, 11 yards, no TD’s) But if Michigan wants to be able to stretch the field and open up running lanes for tailback Michael Hart, they will need Manningham to be all the way healthy. If he can’t cut quickly, can’t run 20 plus yards routes, can’t go over the middle, Michigan’s offense may become one-dimensional and predictable. And that will be trouble.

Prediction: I have gone back and forth on this all weekend. Part of me thinks that there are too many questions surrounding Michigan. Is Manningham healthy? Can QB Chad Heane win the big game? Will Lloyd Carr let his team play? Will the passing of legendary coach Bo Schembechler the day before the game distract them? These are questions that can’t be answered until the game kicks off. So that has me leaning towards OSU. But they are far from perfect in my eyes. How will Smith perform against a dominant front seven? Can this young defense step up in the biggest of settings? Has this team been tested enough this season to be prepared for a close game? Again, more questions that I will have to wait and see on. But since I have to make a prediction before the game, I will have to create my own answers. I think Troy Smith will play well, not Heisman level, but well enough where he gives OSU a chance. I think Manningham isn’t 100% yet, and that will hurt Michigan. I think Jim Tressel is one of the top coaches in football and will find a way to get speedy wide receiver Ted Gin the ball in the open field. And I think that the Wolverines will be a bit off due to Schembechler’s death. It pains me to say this, because I will be rooting for Big Blue, but I think it will be OSU 21 Michigan 17

Even though college will dominate this weekend, I still need to give my NFL picks. Last week I went 11-5, my first double-digit win total since week five. But the downside of that was that my survival pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars, failed me as they lost to the Texans. So after ten weeks, I am done. Anyways, here go the picks for week 11.

My pick in bold

St. Louis at Carolina

New England at Green Bay

Atlanta at Baltimore

Oakland at Kansas City

Buffalo at Houston

Minnesota at Miami

Cincinnati at New Orleans

Chicago at New York Jets

Tennessee at Philadelphia

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Washington at Tampa Bay

Detroit at Arizona

Seattle at San Francisco

Indianapolis at Dallas

San Diego at Denver

New York Giants at Jacksonville


Next week, due to the Thanksgiving games, I will be posting my NFL picks and doing some random thoughts on Wednesday, but not posting later in the week.