Friday, November 03, 2006

A big question to answer in Week Nine

Will the Democrats take control of Congress next Tuesday?

Is the Borat movie too offensive for American audiences?

When is the American military going to get out of the Middle East?

All of these are intelligent, interesting, thought provoking questions. People much smarter then I could discuss them all at length. But none of these are the most difficult question to answer right now. Because unlike those three tough questions, this one actually comes with a correct response.

Who is the best quarterback in the NFL, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady?

OK, so maybe the answer isn’t so easy to figure out. And after watching both of them last week, it would be rather easy to say that it’s a complete tie. I mean all Manning did at Denver, the defense some considered the best in the league, was throw for 345 yards and three touchdowns. Add in an under two minute drive to put the Colts in to field goal range at the end of the game while not throwing any interceptions and it would seem that Peyton would be an easy choice. But the next night, in front of a national audience against a good Minnesota D, Golden Boy Brady one-upped the two time MVP, throwing for 372 yards and four TD’s. So whose performance was better? Who would you want under center with two minutes left in a big game? Good thing for us, we don’t have to just speculate. We’ll get to see the real thing.

I don’t have any clue how this happened, or why God is rewarding us, but for what seems like the tenth time in past five years, we will get to witness Indianapolis face off against New England. Last year the game kind of lost its luster, because the Patriots were banged up at the time and the Colts were on such a huge roll. But this season, this looks like it has the makings of the biggest regular season game of the year. (Unless of course the Pats win and they happen to face a 10-0 Bears team on November 26) It’s Manning and the 7-0 Colts vs Brady and the 6-1 Patriots. Lets break it down, as Bill Simmons says, Dr. Jack style:

Colts offense versus Patriots defense: After having some trouble early in the season, the Colts running game has finally awaken. Rookie Joseph Addai and veteran Dominic Rhodes are doing well splitting the carries, with each of them averaging over 40 yards per game. While that may not seem like much, it’s enough to give Peyton the option of using play-action to burn defenses. And when Peyton has that option, that’s trouble for the defense. New England is solid on that side of the ball, considering they still have Teddy Bruschi, Rich Seymour, and Rodney Harrison. But I’m not sure they can contain the Colts high-powered attack. Advantage---Colts

Patriots offense versus Colts defense: After the Vikings game, somebody asked Pats coach Bill Belichick which receiver he thought would become Brady’s go-to-guy. His response, “the one that’s open.” That shows exactly what New England wants to do. They may not have the Pro Bowlers that the Colts do on the offensive side of the ball, but they know how to use the weapons they do have. Against Minnesota, who is poor against the pass, Brady dropped back and threw 43 times to ten different receivers. This week they will switch it up when they face a horrible Indy run defense, so look for Cory Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney pound the rock. Advantage---Patriots

Special teams: This is one of the most interesting sub-plots of the entire game, because as you may know, the kicker for the Colts used to kick for New England. Not just regular kicks, but two Super Bowl game winners and the most famous kick in Patriots history (No, they are no the same thing. A 30-yard field goal in a dome is one thing. A 45 yarder in a howling snowstorm is another.
But because the Patriots feel that nobody is irreplaceable, they allowed Adam Vinatieri to leave the Northeast and go to their biggest AFC rival. Because of this, I have more faith in Indianapolis if the game comes down to a big kick. Advantage---Colts

Coaching: Unless he was facing off against Vince Lombardi, John Wooden or Joe Torre, there is pretty much nobody in sports history that Pats coach Bill Belichick wouldn’t get the check mark over. He may be a bit stubborn to shell out big buck to players, and he definitely dresses like a high paid hobo, but boy, he is one hell of a coach. Tony Dungy isn’t bad either, but considering he isn’t on the Mount Rushmore of coaches, he can’t touch Belichick. Advantage---Patriots

Intangibles: For all the offensive firepower of the Colts and the defensive wizardry of the Patriots, the game will come down to this. Does Indy have enough D to at least contain Brady’s bunch to allow their offense to get the job done? I think that the Colts are a team on a mission this year, for many reasons. All the people saying they are perennial playoff chokers, that they miss Edgerin James, that Manning is the second coming of Dan Marino. (Great passer, no Super Bowls) And I can guarantee you that the Colts do not want to take another trip to Foxboro this season. They want to stay at their Dome for their entire playoff run. Advantage---Colts

Prediction: Colts 31 Patriots 27

Now on to my other picks for Week Nine. My picks in bold.

Houston at New York Giants

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Green Bay at Buffalo

Dallas at Washington

Miami at Chicago

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Atlanta at Detroit

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Kansas City at St. Louis

Denver at Pittsburgh

Cleveland at San Diego

Indianapolis at New England

Oakland at Seattle

For my survival pick, I doubt I can be more successful then I was a week ago, when my Bears had a 41-point lead at half time. But I will try by choosing the San Diego Chargers to defeat the Browns of Cleveland.

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