While I could make a prediction on the game, I don’t think that anyone who knows me could actually take it serious, because I am such a big Florida fan. But as someone who has watched a lot of Gator and Buckeye football this year, I can provide some insights on the two teams, as well as profile one player on each squad who could make a huge impact on the game. (Oh, what the hell. I’ll make a prediction anyways)
Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, Big Ten Champions)Even as recently as 2003, the year of the Bucks last title, they were considered a power football team. Sure, they had some speed in Mike Doss, Chris Gamble and Michael Jenkins, but they mostly won because they were bigger, stronger, and smarter then everyone else. Four years later, that has all changed. Sure, some Buckeyes are still big, strong and smart, but as OSU showed against Texas and Michigan, they are fast. Really fast. Ted Ginn Jr. may be the nations quickest wideout (Florida’s Percy Harvin may be his main competition for that title), Troy Smith is a smaller version of Vince Young, and linebacker James Laurinaitis reminded me of Brian Urlacher this season. So the theory that the Gators are going to shock Ohio State with their SEC-class speed is insane. Yes, Florida may be faster across the board, but not enough to make much of a difference. The big advantage that Ohio State does have is experience. For example Smith, a red-shirt senior who won this years Heisman Trophy, has been to four BCS bowls in his five years in scarlet and grey, along with starting in three games versus Michigan and two versus Texas. He plays every week in front of a crowd bigger then 100,000 people. So I doubt that the pressure of playing for a national title is going to rattle him too much. Same goes with the rest of the team. They know what they are doing, and it is going to have to be the Gators, not the massive hoards of media or the bright lights, to try and stop them.
Key Player
Florida is going to throw the ball. A lot. The Gators have four top of the line receivers, two good quarterbacks, and no real running game. Because of this, OSU cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, who is usually matched up against the opponent’s number one WR, is especially important. Michigan went right at Jenkins on November 18, and their top pass-catcher, Mario Manningham, finished with a less then impressive six catches for only 86 yards and no scores. Jenkins is fast, athletic, and can play both the man and the ball, as evidenced by his four interceptions this season. And at six-one, he is not going to be pushed around big receivers like Dallas Baker and Andre Caldwell. His coverage will be key, because if he is letting up big plays, it is likely that the Buckeye secondary will have no chance of stopping the Gator attack.
Florida Gators (12-1, South Eastern Conference Champions)The Gators faced the nations toughest schedule, led the SEC in penalties with an average of almost eight per game and only converted four field goals throughout the entire season. Yet they finished 12-1. What does that mean? That this team has a tremendous amount of talent to overcome all of those obstacles. When he has a little bit of time, Chris Leak is as good as any QB in the country. His backup, freshmen Tim Tebow, is a running machine, almost an automatic first down every time he touches the ball. The receiving core of Dallas Baker, Andre Caldwell, Jemalle Cornelius, Percy Harvin and tight end Cornelius Ingram are dangerous all over the field. The defensive line, anchored by tackle Ray McDonald and ends Derrick Harvey and Jarvis Moss, is arguably the best in the country. Linebackers Earl Everett and Brandon Siler can make plays from sideline to sideline. Cornerback Ryan Smith led the SEC with eight interceptions. And safety Reggie Nelson, AKA the Eraser, is a heavy hitter with a nose for the football. But even more then talent, the thing that will drive the Gators the most in this game is the fact the pretty much nobody in the national media feels that they should be in this game. All season long, writers and TV analysts said that Florida wasn’t efficient enough on offense, that they made too many mistakes and they weren’t on the level of Ohio State, Michigan and USC. They absolutely ignored the fact that the Gators played four teams that ended the year ranked among the top 13 in the country, and would have been undefeated if it hadn’t been for a bogus fumble call in the Auburn game. I expect coach Urban Meyer will remind his team that many people thought it was ridiculous that Florida is in this game instead of Michigan, and that the majority of so-called experts are saying that OSU will win in a blow out. Meyer is 6-0 versus Florida’s three biggest rivals (Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State) and 4-0 all-time in bowl or championship games. If he can motivate his team properly, it will be tough for the Buckeyes to stop them.
Key Player
In the Gators most important game of the season to date, December 2 versus Arkansas in the SEC Championship game, Urban Meyer attempted to create some offensive balance. According to the Associated Press box score, the Gators had a total of 31 pass attempts and 30 rushes, a balanced effort to say the least. But take a closer look at the numbers. Of those 30 rushes, 11 were by QB Chris Leak on either designed draws or plays were there was no receiver open, eight were by backup QB Tim Tebow on short-yardage plays and six were by receiver Percy Harvin, who often lines up in the backfield on option plays. And then there’s starting running back DeShawn Wynn, who finished the game with a grand total of one carry for zero yards. Not exactly the kind of performance you want out of a back in a big game. Good thing Wynn gets another chance to prove himself in a big game. The senior from Cincinnati (I smell a revenge game for the in-state school) has had a disappointing UF career, mainly because of health issues and a lack of motivation. But if he plays well on Monday night, Wynn has the chance to become a Gator legend.
Prediction
Before I give a score, I just want to mention a few things about this game.
1-Make sure you have the TiVo working on Monday night, because this game is going to be a classic. Many people are taking the Buckeyes, but a lot of that I feel has to do with an ESPN bias. (The Big 10 has a contract with ABC/ESPN, meaning OSU is on the Worldwide Leader and their family of networks all the time. The SEC on the other hand is broadcast by CBS, meaning they don’t get the pub they should from the Gameday crew and other ESPN voices) I have a different sort of bias, but I am also looking at this rationally. The Gators have beaten one of the nations top running teams (Arkansas), top passing teams (Tennessee), and one of the best defenses (LSU). They have talent all across the field and one of the country’s best coaches. They have been off for enough time to get completely healthy without being rusty. So they won’t get blown out. The game may end up being a touchdown or two difference in the end, but the fourth quarter will start with the winner yet to be decided.
2-While I admit that Ohio State is a great team, let us not forget that they really haven’t tested too much this season. The Big 10 was in an obvious down year, and that could end up costing the Buckeyes. With the exception of the Texas and Michigan games, Ohio State was never really tested this season. Yes, I know, that’s two games against the nations number two teams that OSU won, but over four months, I’m guessing Jim Tressel would have liked his team to be challenged more then twice. If the Buckeyes come out sleepy like they did against a couple of conference foes (Penn State, Illinois), they could be in for a real dogfight.
3-It sounds cliché, but this game is going to come down to turnovers and field position. Ohio State could have put their foot to Michigan’s neck in the middle of the third quarter and killed them off when they played, but Troy Smith turned the ball over and gave the Wolverines new life. The Gators could have beaten Auburn but punter Eric Wilbur made a dumb play and Chris Leak threw an interception at the end of the game when he had a wide open receiver to get the ball to. So these two squads know the importance of controlling the pigskin. Both QB’s will try to not put their team in danger, but they have to be careful, because both the Buckeyes and Gators have some big-time defensive players. Whichever team wins the turnover battle will have great chance of wining the game.
In the end, I think the Buckeyes are the better team. Troy Smith has been great all season, is 7-1 in his career against top-10 teams and Jim Tressel has finished three of his last four seasons with victories in Arizona. But the thing is, Ohio State doesn’t match up with Florida very well. The Buckeyes won versus Michigan because they had depth at the receiver position and could spread UM out and attack the middle of the field. But against the Gators, that won’t happen, because middle linebacker Brandon Siler and safety Reggie Nelson will be waiting to make some big plays. Instead OSU will have to try and pound the ball, and that’s where Florida’s great D-Line will come to play. Sure, Smith and Co. will make some plays. But I just don’t think that the OSU will be able to do too much when they have the ball.
On the other side of the ball, I’m expecting Urban Meyer to use all sorts of trick plays, counters and options to confuse the Ohio State defense. In the Big Ten, you don’t see many teams run plays where the ball can either be thrown to a big play receiver, pitched to a speedy back or held on to by a bruising QB. But Florida does have those options. Look for Tim Tebow to get 10-20 snaps, and not all of them will be draws to the left. Instead I expect some play actions where the safeties are drawn in and then Tebow goes deep to one of UF’s many big play pass catchers. Chris Leak will have to play well, but I think Tebow will be the difference.
Final score:
Ohio State Buckeyes 31
Florida Gators 35
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