Super Week: Day 4

Part two of the Big Game Breakdown looks at when the Bears have the ball. There aren’t any SI cover boys or big name superstars in this matchup, but I believe this is where the game will be decided. I’m going to follow that up by listing some bets you gambling freaks should be taking advantage of.


As I’ve mentioned a couple of times recently, I’m getting really sick of critics hating on Rex Grossman. Sure he’s been inconsistent, but the last time he played poorly in a game that had any type of importance was December 3 versus Minnesota. By Super Bowl Sunday, that will be over two months since Bad Rex has shown his face. His games versus Seattle and New Orleans haven’t been pretty, but the NFL Playoffs aren’t a beauty pageant. It’s all about being efficient and mistake free, and there is no denying that Rex has done that. He hasn’t killed the Bears at all, and I would even argue that he was key in winning the Seahawks game.

The strange thing with all the criticism is that it’s mostly meaningless. Rex can play poorly and the Bears will still have a good chance of winning. (As long as poorly means incompletions and not interceptions.) Because if Thomas Jones, Cederic Benson and the Bears offensive line keep running like they have the past two weeks, Rex won’t have to complete a single pass. Just look at the size of the Bears line compared to the Colts defense. Tait, Brown, Kruetz, Garza and Miller average around 305 pounds compared to the Indy D-line, which averages out at around 271 pounds. Add in big blockers Jason McKee and Desmond Clark and I think the Bears running game will have a big advantage.

When Rex does drop back to pass, he’ll have to make sure to make that he gets rid of the ball quickly. Ends Dwight Freeny and Robert Mathis are pure speed rushers and can get to the quarterback before he has a chance to find any receivers. Rex has to make sure he either finds an open man or just takes a sack, because against a Cover-2 defense, a QB can’t afford to just throw one up to a wide receiver. If he does get time, Grossman should be able to find Moose Muhammad on crossing routes or Bernard Berrian on posts, because the Colts defensive backs aren’t great in pass coverage.


2 Things to Watch:
II--It will be interesting to see who gets most of the carries in the first half, Jones or Benson. For most of the year Jones wore down the defense and then Benson finished them off. But against the Saints, Benson came in early, pounding it against the small N.O. line before Jones came in with fresh legs to run right by them.

I--A lot has been made about the return of Colts safety Bob Sanders in Indy’s improvement on defense. And while he has obviously helped, the most important reason for the Colts’ playoff success has been their opponents’ refusal to play smart football. Against Kansas City the Colts got to face a banged up quarterback (Trent Green) who wasn’t allowed to throw downfield. This let Tony Dungy’s crew to focus completely on Larry Johnson and that shut the Chiefs offense down. The next week in Baltimore, it was all Steve McNair. Unfortunately for the Ravens, he didn’t have his best game and since they refused to give the ball to Jamal Lewis, Freeny and Co could rush the QB without ever even worrying about the run. And in the AFC Championship against the league’s best coach, Patriots head man Bill Bellicheck, the Colts lucked out again. Even with a 21-6 halftime lead, Bellicheck refused to run the ball. This gave Indy more time to comeback, and they eventually took the lead with a minute left. If the Bears are balanced in the Super Bowl, it will be the first team that has been so the Colts have faced since December.


Advantage: Bears
I really think the Bears running game, especially on the outside of the offensive line, will be a huge key to a Chicago victory. If Benson and Jones are able to run 35 or more times it will be a major relief for all of the fans out there that are afraid to see Rex Grossman take the ball with the game on the line. But as I mentioned in the last paragraph, the Bears have to stay balanced and keep the Colts defense honest. Rex needs to complete some big passes to Berrian or Rashied Davis at the start of the game and allow the running games to open up. Freeny and Mathis may get a sack here or there, but I think the Bears blocking will be too much for them.




This is going to be a unique Super Bowl for me because for the first time in my 19 years, I will have a strong rooting interest in the game. That means a serious change from my normal Super Sunday routine. No more avoiding the excessive pre-game shows, since now they will be discussing my team. I can’t be bothered by all the commercials, which are usually good fun during the game. This time I’m going to be so nervous for the play on the field that any interruption is going to be a major hassle. And most of all, I won’t be gambling this year. Usually I put down a few bucks on a team I like. But of course with my team in it this year, I am already emotionally invested enough where my wallet can stay in my pocket. Still, I am willing to give all of you out there a few bets I would be placing some money on if I was doing that type of thing. These are just some of the over/unders I would look at.


***All odds, lines and spreads are coming from the website http://www.bodog.com***


Peyton Manning Total TD Passes + Interceptions in the game 3

I would take the over on this. The Bears defense focuses on turnovers and Peyton has been mistake-prone during the playoffs. I expect Peyton to toss two TD’s and two picks.


How many times will Peyton Manning be sacked during the game? 1 1/2

Again, go with the over. Manning doesn’t get sacked too much, but the Bears are pretty good at rushing the passer. I’d say they’ll bring him down twice.


Dallas Clark Longest Reception in the game 22 1/2

Definitely the under. The Bears defense don’t let up too many big plays, especially to tight ends. If anyone’s going to go deep, it will be a wide receiver.

Thomas Jones Total Rushing Attempts in the game 18

I think the Bears are going to try to run the ball hard during this game, so I would take the over.

Robbie Gould Total Points in the game 7

Definitely the over. Super Bowls are often field goal affairs, and Gould doesn’t miss. He’ll get at least two three-pointers and a minimum of two extra points.

Total number of Pass Interceptions by both teams 2 1/2

This one is tough, but since I already said Manning would throw two, I’ve go to take the over on this. I pray every night that Rex is smart with the ball, but my head says he’ll make one mistake.



Finally the last and most important bet of the game is who will win. The Colts are favored by seven points…But you are going to have to wait until Friday to see my prediction on that one.