Marching to March

I just spent my entire weekend devoted to college basketball. On Saturday, I went to two games (Purdue at Northwestern and Illionis-Chicago at Loyola), watched antoher full one on TV (Illinois at Penn State) and saw the highlights of the rest of the top 25. On Sunday I watched all of Wisconsin at Ohio State and the second half of North Carolina at Maryland, as well again seeing the highlights from the other top 25 games. (Plus I watched all of the Bulls at Pistons. Yes, I have no life outside of sports.)

And even with all that watching, I am even more clueless at who is going to win the NCAA title then I was before the weekend started. None of the teams I watched were very impressive, with the exception of the Illini. But since they were playing Penn State, that doesn’t really count. So with only a few weeks before the tournament begins, now is the time to bunker down and start studying the teams that are going to make a deep run in the tournament. At the start of the season, I listen the top eight squads in the country. In the three months since then, lots of things have changed. So now I have come up with a new list eight teams that have a real chance to win it all. In fact, I’m willing to guarantee that one of these eight will be cutting down the nets in the Georgia Dome on April 2.


UCLA---At the start of the season, I said that the Bruin to watch was point guard Darren Collison (See the November 16 post). Replacing last years Final 4 hero Jordan Farmar, Collison has done a great job leading the UCLA attack. He scores (12.9 points per game, third on the team), he dishes (160 assists), and plays great defense. And he is also the reason that the Bruins are on this list. If UCLA gets into a game against a team that likes to run, Collison will make sure that the Bruin offense keeps moving while the UCLA defense locks down. (Like last year’s Elite Eight game versus Memphis) In a game against a slow-down, defensive team, they can push the tempo with Collison and there other talented wing players, Aaron Afflalo and Josh Shipp. (Like the Texas A&M game earlier this season.) The only problem I see this team having is if they run into a team with some good big men, since their post defense is poor.

Texas---A rule that I learned following the Bulls during the 1990’s is that it is idiotic to pick against the best player in the game. Even when certain teams (Like the ’98 Utah Jazz) are more talented, one player can make such a huge difference that when two teams are close enough, it’s usually the smart choice to take the team that has the best individual player. That rule will make it tough to pick against the Longhorns this March. Kevin Durant is a beast that college ball hasn’t seen since Carmello Anthony left Syracuse four years ago, an obvious choice for national player of the year. Just look at his numbers. This kid (I can call him a kid because he’s younger then I am) is putting up around 25 points and 11 rebounds a game, both of which place him in the top ten nationally. (He’s the only player in the nation to be in the top ten of both those categories.) If Durant gets on a roll, he could follow ‘Mello as a one and done national champ. A concern that I see when analyzing the ‘Horns is that they are lead by a freshmen point guard, which usually is not a good thing come tourney time. (They aren’t the only team with a frosh. PG, as shown bellow.)

Ohio State----The Buckeyes are not only lead by a freshmen point guard, but also a freshmen center. Mike Conley Jr. is a terrific young guard who can both score and pass very well. Center Greg Oden is a monster defensively, and when given the opportunity is very good on the offensive end. But the key to OSU’s March success isn’t these two diaper dandies. Instead, fellow freshmen Daequan Cook, the Buckeye’s sixth man, is going to play the biggest role. Cook has struggled in Big 10 play, but is still the team’s second leading scorer at 11.8 points a game. In NCAA tournament games, it is very helpful to a team’s success to get solid play off of the bench, and nobody provides a spark off the bench like Cook. The weakness with this team is also its strength, which is its reliance on freshmen. In the elite 8, with the game on the line, do Buckeye fans really want the play to be run by a bunch of guys who were getting ready for prom a year ago?

Kansas---Right now, the only thing working against KU is history. Two years ago, as a number three seed, the Jayhawks lost to Bucknell 64-63 in the tourney’s opening round. Last season, Kansas was again a top seed, this time a number four. And again, they lost in round one, to Bradley 77-73. So just getting into the round of 32 may be an accomplishment for Bill Self’s crew. But really, if this squad doesn’t make the Final Four, it will be a disappointment. They have outside scoring in Mario Chalmers and Sharon Collins, inside scoring in Darrell Arthur and Sasha Kaun, and their two best players who can do both, swingmen Brandon Rush and Julian Wright. Their defense is very good, and they got nine deep, a great luxury to have in the tournament. If they make it past round on, this team could rock chalk their way to the ATL.

North Carolina---Ol’ Roy Williams broke my heart in 2005, when he led his Tar Heels to a national title game victory over my beloved Fighting Illini. That team featured future first round NBA picks Raymond Felton, Marvin Williams, Rashad McCants and Sean May. They were blazing fast with the ball and ferocious on D. And they were lucky they didn’t have to face the ’07 version of Ol’ Roy’s sky blue squad. Because this year’s team is better. It’s not a lock to win it all, but I would say of the eight teams on this list, UNC is the favorite. They have great players at every position, a Hall of Fame coach, and they run a difficult offense to contain. (FYI: Check out Grant Wahl’s piece about UNC’s secondary-break in last weeks issue of Sports Illustrated. Very interesting stuff.) Even with a slip-up at Maryland last weekend, Tyler Hansbrough and Co. will be ready come March. Their biggest concern is the same as Texas and Ohio State, because the leader of the Carolina attack is a freshmen; the lightning fast Ty Lawson.

Georgetown---The Hoyas haven’t been relevant in March for a long time. Sure, they made a nice Sweet 16 run a year ago. But this season, they could make some serious noise. Led by big men Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green and guard Jonathan Wallace, G-Town is a tough team to face because of the offense they run. Coach John Thompson III is a student of Pete Carril‘s Princeton offense, which is based on backdoor cuts to the hoop and crisp passing from the big men. (Similar to Northwestern, only that Georgetown actually puts the ball in the basket.) This makes the Hoyas impossible to prepare for on short notice, which is what the tournament is. It also is difficult to prepare for the 7-2 Hibbert and the 6-10 Green, since both of them are outstanding scorers and passers. The problem with the Hoyas is that they are not a very good jump shooting squad, so if a team goes zone on them (Like Syracuse did on Monday night), it could be tough for Georgetown to get buckets.

Nevada---Don’t sleep on the Wolfpack just because they aren’t a big-time school. This team can play. Center Nick Fazekas is the big star, averaging around 21 points and 11.5 rebounds a game. But the real key for Nevada is guard Marcelus Kemp, a guy you probably haven’t heard of if you’re not a big time hoops-junkie. Kemp is a threat from long range, from the free throw line and will even post up apposing guards when he has a mis-match. Look for him to take over at the end of games. The thing I worry about with Nevada is that playing in the Western Athletic Association, they don’t have a lot of big game experience.

Texas A&M---The third Big 12 team on this list may also be the conference’s most dangerous come March. The Aggies have already beaten Kansas and Texas (thought they play the Longhorns again tonight), and can wrap up the Big 12 regular season crown if they win their final two games. There leader is one of the nations most clutch players, point guard Acie Law IV. Law is nearly unstoppable at the end of games, which is why he hit the game winner at Kansas and hit the game tying three versus Texas Tech. But he isn’t A&M’s only threat. This team has three other players scoring double figures, led by big man Joseph Jones, who is a beast near the basket. If the Aggies get placed in a region without a dominant defensive team, (Especially if that region is San Antonio, which will be painted maroon and white if the A&M comes to town) they should be considered favorites to make the Final 4.


You may have noticed that the Wisconsin Badgers, the team ranked number one in the land only one week ago, is not on my list. Neither are the defending national champion Florida Gators. Or the team with the longest current winning streak, the Memphis Tigers. And there’s a reason for this. The Badgers don’t have enough scoring to win six games against top of the line competition, especially away from the Kohl Center. The Gators, who have maybe the best starting lineup in the nation, don’t seem to be motivated at all to win back-to-back titles, losing three of their last four games. And Memphis, who hasn’t played an NCAA tournament quality team since December, doesn’t have the defense to put together an Atlanta road trip.

Now I’m not sure which of those eight squads will win it all, because I don’t know which is the best of the eight. And I’m not saying the Final Four will be made up of four of those teams, because we’re going to have to wait until the brackets are released to see the matchups. All I’m saying is that I guarantee that one of those eight are going to be the 2007 NCAA Men’s Basketball Champions.