What did we learn?

Four teams. Florida, UCLA, Georgetown and Ohio State. That’s all that is left of the 2006-07 college basketball season. But how did we get here? Lets review what new information was picked up over the weekend and preview the Final Four.

-The main theme of the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8 is that there is no such thing as a safe lead. Tennessee led Ohio State by 17 at halftime and lost. USC was up 16 to North Carolina before the Heels went on an 18-0 run to take the lead and the game. And Georgetown was down nine with six minutes left before they came back and took UNC to overtime. Then in the extra session, the Hoyas went on a 15-0 run to put the game out of reach. So why did all these leads crumble like Kerry Wood’s shoulder? Well Tennessee played probably the worst possible offense to run with a big lead, which is jacking up bad three pointers with 25 seconds still on the shot clock. North Carolina used their superior depth to wear down USC, combined with foul trouble for Trojans big man Taj Gibson. But the choke job that shocked me was the one the Tar Heels pulled against Georgetown in the Elite 8. North Carolina just stopped making shots. Over 15 minutes, including the end of regulation and most of overtime, the Tar Heels went one of 23 from the field. Maybe Carolina would have beaten some average ACC team with that kind of performance. But there is no way that Georgetown was going to get taken out by a squad who couldn’t make a basket if their life depended on it.

-Remember Phil Mickelson before the 2004 Masters. Or Roy Williams before the 2005 Final Four. Or Peyton Manning before the 2007 Super Bowl. They were the guys who couldn’t win the big one. They fell apart when it mattered the most. But since those three all won, they can’t be mentioned as the best to never win the title. Now that man is Kansas coach Bill Self. Four times Self has taken his team to the Elite 8. All four times he has sat on his couch watching the Final 4. This year, with a team loaded with talent at every position, his Jayhawks got outplayed and most of all, out coached in their West Regional Final versus UCLA. Jayhawk star guards Mario Cahlmers and Sharon Collins shot a combined one for twelve, while UCLA’s backcourt of Darren Collison and Aaron Affalo went 14 for 23. But can that really be the fault of Self? Well considering that the coach refused to dump the ball into Brandon Rush in the second half, pretty much forcing his guards to win the game, I would say that it is Self’s fault KU lost. Remind me next year to not pick a Bill Self coached team to win the National Title.

-Notice a theme in the Final Four teams? Other then UCLA, all of the squads have superstar big men. (Even the Bruins have a nice center in Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, though he isn’t at the level of the other three.) Ohio State’s Greg Oden is the most well-known, but that doesn’t mean he is the best. The Buckeye center has had back-to-back bad games and has really played third fiddle to Ron Lewis and Mike Conley all tournament long. Still, he is the best back to the basket player left, and if he stays out of foul trouble, he has the chance to dominate. Florida’s twin towers of Jokim Noah and Al Horford are almost impossible to defend. Noah is physical and plays with an amazing amount of energy, making it difficult to keep him off the glass. Horford is quick and smooth, making him difficult to stop when he’s on the block. Both deserve to be double teamed, but if that happens, Lee Humphrey will be tearing some more twine from three-point range. And Georgetown center Roy Hibbert is Stretch Armstrong wearing shorts and a jersey. Standing at 7-2, Hibbert can grab every rebound, contest every shot and avoid serious foul trouble playing in the center of the Hoyas 2-3 zone. He has improved greatly as the season has progressed on offense, and is pretty good at the free throw line.

-Before the tournament began, I said that home court advantage didn’t play that big of a factor in who wins and loses games. (see the March 11 post) And during the tournaments first three rounds, I was right. Louisville lost to Texas A&M in Lexington. Wisconsin lost to UNLV in Chicago. And the Aggies lost to Memphis in San Antonio. But in the Elite 8, playing close to home played a big factor in a couple of the games. The North Carolina-Georgetown game was played in New Jersey, much closer to the Hoyas Washington DC campus then Chapel Hill, NC. As G-Town was coming back in the second half, it seemed the crowd was really getting behind them, and it completely took the heart out of the Heels. The other game where location played a big factor was UCLA-Kansas. Obviously in San Jose, the crowd was mostly Bruin faithful. They cheered loudly whenever a UCLA shot went in and got ever louder when a Kansas shot missed. I think the crowd rattled the young Jayhawk squad and it motivated the Bruins. Kansas still could have won the game, but it is very difficult when facing a talented team and their loud crowd.



FINAL FOUR PREVIEW:

Florida-UCLA
A rematch of last season title game should be closer then the 73-57 drubbing the Gators pulled away with on 4/3/2007. I think the key matchup will be on the perimiter with Aaron Affalo facing off against Corey Brewer. Both players are fast, long and able to take over the game. Brewer may not win that matchup, but as long as he isn’t dominated like Kansas’ guards were, the Gators should win this game in the paint. GATORS 65-58


Ohio State-Georgetown
Obviously all the attention will go to the Oden-Hibbert matchup in the post, and deservingly so. But I most want to see how the Buckeyes will handle Jeff Green. Ohio State has some athletes that can guard him, but they aren’t very tall. They have some big man to face him, but they aren’t as athletic as Green is. Mike Conley will have to play great again for the Buckeyes to advance. I don’t see that happening. HOYAS 77-74