Playoff Time

Sorry for the lack of posts recently. The combination of the school semester winding down and going back to work at Wrigley has not given me much time to write for the blog. Anyways, I’m going to try and be original in previewing the NBA Playoffs, something that is hard to do.

I was looking on basketball-reference.com recently when I noticed something that shouldn’t have been surprising, yet it was. Many people say that superstars make the difference come NBA playoff time, but I never realized how true of a statement that was. I always thought it meant that superstars are the key in getting a team to the title and role players are needed to put a team over the hump. It turns out that history shows that it’s the other way around.

Since 1980, there have been 26 NBA Finals series’. In all but two of them, the MVP of that series is either in or is on their way to being in the Basketball Hall of Fame. Michael Jordan won it six times, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tim Duncan all won it three times, Larry Bird and Hakeem Olajuwon won it twice and then one each for Dwyane Wade, Isaiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, James Worthy, Kareem Abdul-Jabar, and Moses Malone. The only two MVP’s who don’t appear on that list are Cederic Maxwell (Boston in 1981), who played on a Celtics team with four Hall of Famers, and Chauncey Billups (Detroit in 2004), whose Pistons had four Eastern Conference All-Stars.

Digging even deeper, the research shows us that most of the players mentioned above were not only in or headed to Springfield, but also at least one of their teammates was going there also. MJ had Pippen, D-Wade had Shaq, Shaq had Kobe, Bird had Parish and McHale, Duncan had David Robinson, Moses had Dr. J, and Hakeem had Clyde Drexler. Magic, Worthy and Kareem had each other, as did Isaiah and Dumars. Again, the 2004 Pistons are the only champs not to show up on the list, proving how big of an upset it was when they beat the Lakers, who had four future Hall of Famers.

So when figuring out who will go all the way in the NBA Playoffs this year, it is important to not only figure out who has the best superstar, but also who has the best number two option. It is unfair right now to predict who is Hall-of-Fame worthy, but it is fair to evaluate who is among the best in the league. I say that a team needs two guys who are among the best at their position in the league to have a real shot of hoisting the Larry O’Brien come mid-June. So which of the 16 playoff teams are best equipped to fill that criteria and make a run at the title.
NOTE: Just because a team is in a certain category doesn’t mean they will go a certain distance in the playoffs. Check the predictions at the bottom to see where I pick each team to get.

NO SHOT (TEAMS THAT NEED A MIRICLE TO EVEN PUSH THEIR SERIES TO SEVEN GAMES)
Washington---A month ago, the Wizards would most likely have been in the ‘Real Chance’ category. With Gilbert Arenas, arguably one of the leagues top three point guards, running the show, and Caron Butler, an improving swingman, Washington had a realistic chance to make a deep playoff run. But now both those guys are hurt and the Wizards have a better chance of playing for the Nationals or Redskins and making the playoffs in their leagues. It doesn’t help when a team loses its two best scorers that was already horrible at defense. I will be surprised if the Wizards win more then one playoff game.

Orlando---Dwight Howard is a beast in the middle, maybe the best center in the East. But this is his first taste of playoff basketball, something that is not to be taken lightly. His 17 points and 12 rebounds per game average will most likely go down, meaning the Magic’s number two option will have to step up. And that number two option is….Grant Hill would be the man, but these playoffs are in 2007, not 1997. Hedo Turkoglu is a nice player, but definitely not the second scorer the Magic need. Look for Orlando to be one and done.

Toronto---The Raptors are a very similar team to Orlando. They have one premier player, Chris Bosh, who has zero playoff experience. They have a bunch of solid guys, like TJ Ford, Anthony Parker and Morris Peterson, who also haven’t done much in April and May. Ford is the key to this team, because he sets up everything they do on offense and defense. I think Toronto can last longer then the Wizards and Magic can, at least giving a fight in round one and maybe advancing to the Eastern Semi’s.

Golden State--Great offense, no defense. If that intrigues you, then Golden State is a team to watch. The Warriors averaged 106.4 points a game, second in the league. (#1 is the Suns) They also allowed 107 points a game, most in the league. So when they step foot on the playoff floor, points will follow. Unfortunately, come playoff time, defense wins, and G.S. doesn’t have it. Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Al Harrington are nice players, but until they find a stopper or two, the first round is as far as they will get.

ONLY ONE (TEAMS THAT HAVE A GREAT PLAYER, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE)
Los Angeles---Honestly, if every NBA player was ranked one through three hundred and sixty (30 teams, 12 player per team), I think that I would rank Kobe Bryant first. He is the leagues best scorer, an above average defender, maybe the best clutch player since MJ retired and has won three titles. Oh yeah, he’s only 28 years old, meaning he’s just reaching the prime of his career.
Yet with that said, who else do the Lakers have that makes other teams sleepless the night before games? Lamar Odom would be a great third option, but doesn’t really cut as option number two. Smush Parker should be starting for an NBDL squad, not the Lake Show. And Andrew Bynum, while being a talented player, would have been the fourth best center at this year’s Final Four. Kobe will take LA as far as he can. Unfortunately, it won’t be as far as Laker fans would like.

Cleveland---When he gives 110%, like he did in the second half of this season, stopping LeBron James is about as difficult as translating Ozzie Guillen’s press conferences to real, American English. LBJ can slash to the basket, is strong enough to post up most guards and forwards and is one of the league’s top passers. But like with Kobe, the people he ends up passing to are just plain bad. Larry Hughes has been a horrible fit for the Cavs, and Big Z (I’m not going to even try spelling out his name) is not the right kind of center for LeBron’s style. I think James can take Cleveland pretty far, even to the E.C. Finals, but there’s no way that this squad can take the Finals to Lake Erie.

Utah---I’m not really sure if the Jazz belong in this category, because they don’t really have that one elite player (Though Carlos Boozer played very well this season). But since they didn’t really fit in with any of the other’s, I decided to put them here. They have a good starting five, with Boozer and second year point guard Deron Williams and a great coach in Jerry Sloan. They play tough defense, and the Delta Center (or whatever it’s called now) is always an impossible place to play. Utah will be a tough out for whoever they face in round one, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them make a nice playoff run. But compared to the other squads out West, the Jazz are not ready to make a Finals appearance.

CLOSE, BUT NOT QUITE (GREAT TEAMS, JUST MISSING ONE LITTLE PIECE)
San Antonio---As I mentioned above, Tim Duncan is a three-time NBA Champion and one of the best players in NBA history. The Spurs are battle tested and are not going to be intimidated by anyone. They have a great coach (Greg Popovich), maybe the best perimeter defender in the league (Bruce Bowen), a great backcourt duo (Parker & Ginobili) and the best active clutch player (Robert Horry) to go along with TD. Yet something about this team is missing. I can’t really figure out what that thing is, but it’s not right. Also the fact that to even make the Finals, they will have to go into Phoenix and Dallas and win some big games makes me nervous.

Chicago---Wednesday night’s game at New Jersey was the biggest choke job in Chicago sports since the Cubs in 2003. Instead of getting the number two seed, facing Washington in round one and either Toronto or the Nets in round two (with home court in both series), the Bulls are the five seed and have to face the defending champion Heat and then most likely the Pistons to just make the E.C. Finals. Still, even with the tough schedule, I like the Bulls chances. They play tough defense, are deep, and have some real good players, such as Loul Deng and Ben Gordon. The only thing they are missing is a dependable low-post scorer, something that I think will end up costing the Bulls in the end.

New Jersey---If Richard Jefferson was 100% and Nenad Krstic was playing, the Nets would be one of the favorites in the East. Even without playing at full strength, Jersey is still a team to be reckoned with. Jason Kidd is a triple-double machine and still may be the most complete guard in the league. Vince Carter is a highlight waiting to happen, even if he does play selfishly at times. Yet the team plays horrible defense, and when Carter’s jumpers aren’t falling, they struggle to score. If the Nets can play just decent D, they could make some noise this spring.

Denver--- On December 19, the Nuggets acquired point guard Allen Iverson from Philly and escalated their playoff chances from decent to good. A.I. has the biggest heart in the league and is one of the premier players of the generation. Despite being only 6 feet tall, he can score from anywhere on the floor and has even started to pass the ball. His sidekick in the mountains is Carmello Anthony, who also has been known to put the ball in the hoop. These two make up one of the most dangerous duo’s in the league, but only on the offensive end. On D, the only Nugget worth watching is center Marcus Camby, who dominates the paint. Denver has a shot to make a nice playoff push because of Iverson and Anthony, but there lack of defense will make it tough to get out of the West.

REAL CHANCE (THESE TEAMS HAVE IT ALL)
Houston---Superstars Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady combined to miss 45 games this season, which for most teams would mean a trip to the lottery. But the Rockets fought through it and now, with both guys healthy, they look ready to become the third Lone Star State squad in three years to reach the NBA Finals. T-Mac has been playing great lately (26.1 points, 6.9 assists and 6.6 rebounds in April) and with Yao back in the post, Houston has the best inside-outside duo in the league. They also play great defense and have a lot of good role players, such as Shane Battier and Luther Head.

Miami---The defending champs are not the team they were a year ago. Shaq is a year older (and slower), as is Alonzo Mourning. Both Jason Williams and Antoine Walker had down seasons. And Dwayne Wade injured his shoulder after the All-Star break and missed 31 games. So it would seem the Heat aren’t likely to make it back-to-back. Yet there is the chance that O’Neil has his rare flashes of brilliance and become unstoppable while Wade magically gets healthy and also can’t be stopped. And if that does happen, Pat Riley’s team will be considered the favorite in the entire league, even though they are the four seed in the East.

Dallas---Mark Cuban’s boys have been the best in the league ever since their horrible opening week of the season. Dirk Nowitzki should win MVP, Jason Terry has been fantastic, and Josh Howard is quickly becoming one of the best players in basketball. They have depth on their bench, an exciting system, and most of all, experience from a year ago. I like how they match up with both Phoenix and San Antonio, and Avery Johnson is brilliant at making in-game changes. Last year they should have won it all. This year, they need to finish the job.

Detroit---In the history of the NBA, has a team ever won 50+ games in six consecutive seasons quieter then the Pistons? Is seems like nobody talks about this team, because they don’t have that one superstar that will dominate a game. Instead they have what might be a perfect starting five. Big men Chris Webber and Rashied Wallace are physical defenders that crash the boards, but also pass and shoot like most guards. Rip Hamilton at the two is a pain in the ass to face, because he won’t give anybody anything. On both ends of the floor, his job is to cause havoc, and he does a great job. Point guard Chauncey Billups is a clutch player who isn’t afraid to take, and make, the clutch shot. And small forward Tayshon Prince is one the leagues most unique players, a 6-7 forward with the wingspan of a 7-footer. Detroit won’t make life easy on whomever they play.

Phoenix---If a list was made of the five best players at all five positions in basketball, a player from the Suns would be appear on three of them. Steve Nash at the point, Shawn Marrion at small forward and Amare Stodumire at center are all among the league’s elite, making it almost impossible to contain the Phoenix attack. (SG Raja Bell, PF Boris Diaw and PG Leandro Barbosa aren’t too bad either) Nash makes the perfect pass every time, usually on a pick-and-roll to Amare. Marrion collects the lose ends, and also plays very good defense. When none of those passes are available, the two-time MVP can also shoot the three or kick the ball out to one of the Suns other shooters. To beat this team, some squad is going to have to play perfect defense for 48 minutes four times in a row. It won’t be easy.


My quick playoff predictions
First Round
East: Pistons in 5, Bulls in 7, Cavaliers in 4, Raptors in 6
West: Mavericks in 6, Rockets in 5, Spurs in 6, Suns in 6

Conference Semifinals
East: Bulls over Pistons in 7, Cavaliers over Raptors in 5
West: Rockets over Mavericks in 7, Suns over Spurs in 6

Conference Finals
East: Bulls over Cavaliers in 6
West: Suns over Rockets in 7

NBA Finals
Suns over Bulls in 6 (FYI, my preseason pick was Suns over Cavs in 6. Check the October 27 post)