Pigskin fever

Before I start my NFL preview, here are three random thoughts from a crazy three-day weekend.

1---As I wrote in last week’s college football preview, I didn’t think that Michigan would run the table and be in the National Title game. (I guessed they would lose on November 10 at Wisconsin) That being said, I never in a million years expected them to lose on Saturday to Appalachian State, a Division I-AA school. The maze and blue should be downright embarrassed for even having the game be close, much less coming out on the short end. Lloyd Carr might as well do himself a favor and just quit now, since there is no way he can come back to coach the team again next year after his most talented team in ten years goes out and loses to Appalachian State. (No offense to the Mountaineers, who are obviously a good squad. It’s just that I bet not even the players on the field thought they could beat Big Blue.) Now Michigan can officially kiss those championship hopes goodbye, because I think people are more likely to vote in a team with two losses to a Division I-A school than the Wolverines.

2---What a wacky weekend at Wrigley. Taking two out of three games from the Houston Astros, a ball club that just fired their manager, might not seem that big of a deal to the casual fan. But considering that both St. Louis and Milwaukee swept their opponents this weekend, it was vital that the Cubs kept their lead in the NL Central standings. Saturday’s game was one of those that earlier this year, the Cubs would have lost. Facing a left-handed starter in Troy Patton who was pitching in his second career major league game, usually the offense goes to bed. And for the five innings, it did. But Aramis Ramirez’s sixth inning two-run blast gave the North Siders a 3-1 lead, and Derek Lee added an insurance run in the eight with a solo homer of his own. On Sunday, Houston jumped out to a big lead early, but the boys in blue fought back, first with the help of some Astros errors, then with a pinch-hit home run by Matt Murton. But the big blow came in the eighth, when D-Lee lifted one in to the left-center field basket to give the Cubs their first lead of the game, a 6-5 advantage. Ryan Dempster then came in and sent the ‘Stros down one-two-three, prompting manager Lou Piniella to say, “'What a huge win. Boy, that's our biggest of the year. Clutch by Mr. Lee.” This last month sure will be fun.

3---The other big news in Cub Nation over the weekend was the acquisition of what a friend of mine called Steve ‘The Human Rain Delay’ Trachsel. Yes, Trachsel does take an incredibly long time to pitch. But the strange thing is, he’s slowly pitching better right now than any of the other Cubs starters. While throwing for the Baltimore Oriels this past month, Trachsel threw 38 innings and only allowed ten earned runs. For some perspective on that, Carlos Zambrano went 29 1/3 innings and allowed 23 runs and Ted Lilly pitched 35 2/3 innings and gave up 20 runs. So while it may seem on the surface that the Cubs only got Trachsel to provide insurance in case of injury, the real reason may be that they saw on opportunity to add a quality right handed starter who is pitching very well right now.


Last year for my NFL Preview, I ranked the AFC and NFC team one through sixteen and then played out the season NCAA Tournament style, until we were left with a Indianapolis over Tampa Bay Super Bowl. (Hey, at least I correctly guessed the Colts would win it at the start of the year.) For 2007, I’m going to take a more simple approach. Just like I did with college football, I will focus on a variety of different categories, except this time it won’t be games, players and teams. (Actually players and teams will be profiled again, but in a different way.)

THREE BREAKOUT PLAYERS (Offense edition)
3) Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
OK, so the first overall pick in the 2005 draft probably should be breaking out now that he’s in his third season. And sure enough, he will. With running back Frank Gore rushing for another 1,700 yards, the passing lanes will open up, and I think that Smith is ready to take the next step. Look for tight end Vernon Davis to be on the receiving end of a lot of Smith passes.

2) Brandon Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans
The only reason Jones is on this list is because he is Vince Young’s best receiver. And that alone should get him about 75 catches. He also posses good hands and is pretty fast, meaning about ten touchdowns. Plus his team will be down a bunch, so they will be throwing the ball a lot. That gets Jones about 1,000 yards. Sounds like a breakout season to me.

1) Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans Saints
Look who we have here. Mr. Heisman Trophy, the second overall pick in last year’s draft, the spark plug to the NFC runner’s up. In ’06 Bush had over 1,300 yards (Both receiving and rushing) and eight TD’s (rushing, receiving and kick returning). This season he could very well double those numbers. Look for the President to quickly plant his place among the leagues top ten running backs.

THREE BREAKOUT PLAYERS (Defensive edition)
3) AJ Hawk, LB, Green Bay Packers
The former Ohio State linebacker had a good rookie campaign, posting 84 tackles, three and a half sacks while not missing a single game. This season Hawk could be even better. The Packers secondary, with corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson, is strong enough to contain opponents passing games, so look for Hawk to squash run games on his way to a hundred plus tackles.

2) Alan Branch, DT, Arizona Cardinals
A friend of mine who watched Branch at Michigan last season told me that all 32 NFL teams were crazy for passing this guy in the first round of the draft. And after looking at the stats, I gotta say that I agree with him. At UM last year, Branch made 25 tackles, six for losses and two of them sacks. This is all while being double teamed every play. If he puts up comparable numbers this year over 16 games, he could be an All Pro player.

1) Sean Jones, S, Cleveland Browns
You probably didn’t know this, because nobody cares about the Browns, but last season Jones had 111 tackles, five interceptions, and even two safeties. This year he’ll join Ed Reed and Troy Polamaluu as the top defensive backs in the AFC North. Jones is a ball-hawker and can lay out some big hits, making him one of the few bright spots for Cleveland this year.

TWO COACHES WITH A LOAD OF PRESSURE
2) Joe Gibbs, Washington Redskins
The only active coach who already has a bust in Canton, Gibbs should be pretty comfortable in D.C. these days. But when the owner of the ‘Skins, Daniel Snyder, has employed two of the highest paid coordinators in the NFL to work on your staff and the team still finishes with double digit losses for the third time in four years, there’s a problem. Gibbs better hope young quarterback Jason Campbell grows up quickly, or else it could be another long season on the beltway.

1) Norv Turner, San Diego Chargers
It’s a pretty simple task for Turner this year in San Diego: Win the Super Bowl. That’s it. Anything less than that, and he’s gone. When you have the best running back (Tomlinson), tight end (Gates) and pass rusher (Merriman) in the entire league, as well as a good young QB and a fast defense, there are no excuses to not reach the big game. Last season under coach Marty Schottenheimer, the Bolts fell short. If Turner does that also, they’ll find a new coach to lead them.

ONE TEAM THAT WILL SURPRISE PEOPLE
1) Jacksonville Jaguars
Look out Peyton. Yeah, I know, you finally won that big game. You go the ring. But don’t be so confident that you’ll repeat as Super Bowl champs. Don’t even be so confident that you’ll repeat as AFC South champs. Because those Jaguars are pretty good, especially on defense. Up front, tackles John Henderson and Marcus Stroud are two of the best in the entire league. Linebacker Mike Peterson is a beast, if he can stay healthy all year long. And cornerback Rashean Mathis and safety Reggie ‘The Eraser’ Nelson make their secondary one of the toughest in the league. Add in running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor and versatile quarterback David Gerrard, and I think J-Ville could win ten games this season.

SEASON PREDICTIONS
NFC North- Bears
NFC South- Panthers
NFC East- Cowboys
NFC West- Seahawks
NFC Wild Cards- Saints, 49ers

AFC North- Ravens
AFC South- Colts
AFC East- Patriots
AFC West- Chargers
AFC Wild Cards- Jaguars, Steelers

Super Bowl XLII--- (WARNING: Homer Pick) Bears over Patriots
MVP- Steve Smith, Panthers
Offensive Rookie of the Year- Marshawn Lynch, Bills
Defensive Rookie of the Year- LaRon Landry, Redskins




I’ll give my week one picks tomorrow…