Making history

Every week on this here blog, I make NFL picks. Some times I know for a fact that my pick will be correct, other time I make an educated guess, and then there are the games where I’m basically flipping a coin. Then at the end of the week, I tally up my wins and losses and move on to the following set of games.

But until today, I had never gone back and studied my past picks. While it seems kind of silly to look back at match ups from four months ago and try to find some value out of them, I wanted to see my personal path to the Super Bowl. Was it a shock to me that the Giants made it to Phoenix or that the Patriots are un-beaten? To do that, I went back and looked both at my NFL Preview post as well as my week-to-week picks. Here’s what I found:

New England---
In my NFL Preview, I said the Patriots would win the AFC and make it to the Super Bowl (So far so good). Of course I picked they would lose to the Bears in that game (uh, not so good).

Still, on a weekly basis, I was pretty good at figuring New England out. I got 17 of their 18 games thus far correct (It’s kinda easy when the win every week), with the only failure being their week nine match up with the Indianapolis Colts. For that contest I said, “As good as New England’s receivers have been (And believe me, I know, since I got both Brady and Wes Welker on one of my fantasy teams), I still would take Indy’s pass game.” Turns out the Colts couldn’t complete a pass when they needed to and New England got the victory that afternoon.

New York---
What an up and down year for the Giants. Start out 0-2, win six straight, lost two of three, win back-to-back games, and then lose their last two of three to end the year. Of course they have won three consecutive playoff games, the most important streak they’ve put together all season.

I was inconsistent regarding the Giants. I picked them to lose their first three, then win seven of their next eight. Something then must have changed with me, because I picked defeats for Big Blue in their final five contests. But then I got right back on the bandwagon, getting all three of their playoff wins correct. Overall I went 12-7 with the Giants (meaning I correctly predicted 12 of their 19 games, either a win when they actually won or a loss when they ended up losing).

Now it’s time to figure out who will win Sunday’s game, the most important football contest of the season. I think it breaks down to three simple questions:

1-Can Eli stay perfect?
Of course I realize New England is the team with the perfect record, but since the playoffs began, it has been Eli Manning who has been the perfect QB. Combined versus Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay, the other Manning (and the other Eli) is 53 for 85 (62%) with 600 yards, four TD’s and ZERO interceptions. This is a guy who threw 20 INT’s during the regular season. If he can continue to hold on to the ball and not give Tom Brady and Co. good offensive field position, Manning and the Giants can do what they’ve done all month, which is win the games in the fourth quarter.

2-Does Moss snap out of it?
Randy Moss had maybe the greatest regular season ever for a wide receiver, catching 98 balls for almost 1,500 yards and an NFL record 23 touchdowns. But in the post-season, he’s got only two more catches than I do. Yes, against the Jaguars and Chargers, Moss has caught a total of two passes for 32 measly yards. Last time the Giants and Pats played, in a fantastic Week 17 showdown, Moss had six catches, 100 yards and two TD’s. He needs to play more like that Randy than playoff Randy if New England’s offense wants to be in full force.

3-Who controls the clock?
Not to go Jim Nantz on everybody, but its true that whatever team has the ball for the most time has the best chance of winning. Against the Packers two Sundays ago, the Giants had control of the pigskin for over 40 minutes, compared the Green Bay’s 22:34. If the G-Men control the ball like that against New England- assuming the Pats don’t have INT or kick returns for touchdowns- it might be hard for even the mighty Patriots to keep up on the scoreboard.


The Pick:
I think the Giants will play a tough game and make Tom Brady uncomfortable. But I just can’t see them stopping every weapon on New England’s offense, which is why I see it being Patriots victory number 19.

New England 38
New York 28

Last Week: 2-0
Playoffs: 9-1
Total: 165-101