Down to crunch time

In the midst of the Cubs trying to derail their future by trading for Jake Peavy, the biggest name in politics using Wrigley Field and the union I am a member of as leverage for the most ridiculous under-the-table deal in U.S. history and Derrick Rose injuring himself on an a piece of fruit*, there really is important stuff going on in Chicago sports these days. And that of course, would be the Bears.

*- This really isn’t important, but I just had to pass along what Sam Smith, one of my favorite sportswriters of all time, had to say about the Bulls rookie:
“I feel Derrick Rose's pain, though it seems he's fine and will play Tuesday with 10 stitches from inadvertently flopping onto a knife he said he'd had in his bed he was using to cut an apple. Of course, this is one problem Eddy Curry never had as you rarely suffer injuries eating Twinkies.” Great stuff.

If you remember- and if you don’t, check my September 5 post- I predicted the Bears would finish 6-10 this season. So the fact that they have now won seven games is improvement in my eyes. Beating Jacksonville was much easier than anybody could have imagined at the start of the year, both because the Bears have improved and the Jags have blown up like fireworks. The defense came through with a big play early on, as Daniel Manning’s early INT gave the Bears the opportunity to put quick points on the scoreboard. Kyle Orton looked strong, throwing a couple of touchdowns to the tight ends and a beautiful fade to Devin Hester. And Matt Forte was solid as usual, though I’m still concerned that the team doesn’t have a quality backup for him and he will hit a wall soon.

Now at 7-6, still a game behind the Vikings for the NFC North lead, the team faces another test: a Thursday night affair with the Saints, also 7-6. New Orleans has been dominant at home, 6-1 if you count their ‘home’ game in London, but haven’t done too well away from the Crescent City. They also have been poor at Solider Field the last two years, losing the NFC Championship game in January 2007 and then ending the next season during December ’07 with another defeat. Good news for the Bears.

That being said, N.O. also features Drew Brees, who has thrown for 4,100 yards and 26 touchdowns this year. Brees’ efforts are the primary reason the Saints are #1 in the league in yards per game and #2 in scoring. It’s also the reason the Bears need to be worried about this contest Thursday night.

All season long, the Bears’ kryptonite has been pass defense. They gave up 407 yards through the air to Brian Griese in week three, 301 yards to Matt Ryan in week six and 290 to Kerry Collins in week ten. Opponents on average throw for 234 yards a game, which ranks the Bears 28th in the league when it comes to pass defense. They do have 18 interceptions, but most of those came against the Lions and Rams. With the Saints coming into the game knowing they most win to keep their slim playoff chances alive, its bad news for the Bears.

On the other side of the ball, it’s important once again that Orton doesn’t turn the ball over. The Bears have a chance in this game only if they are aggressive on defense and cautions with the football, but not the other way around. If there are interceptions and fumbles, and Brees gets good field position to work with, good night season’s over. But if it’s the Bears picking up the extra possessions, than the season lives to see another day.

This game really reminds me of the Bears-Vikings game from two weeks ago, but with a bit of a twist. In that game, the team knew they needed to limit Adrian Peterson if they wanted any chance of winning. And even though I thought their defense on AP wasn’t too bad, he still got the big yards when the Vikes needed him, and that set up the big play of the game for Minnesota, the 99-yard TD pass to Bernard Berrian.

In this game, the Bears know the MUST contain (stop is impossible, all I ask for is contain) Drew Brees if they want a chance at winning. The Saints will be ready for revenge and the Bears need to protect their home turf. My prediction- and I’m obviously sick with homer fever because I keep picking the hometown team when I know in the back of my head they will let me down- is Bears 27 Saints 23. I say lots of Forte, lots of pressure on Brees and some help from the cold air.

Other week 15 picks

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Washington at Cincinnati

Detroit at Indianapolis

San Diego at Kansas City

Seattle at St. Louis

San Francisco at Miami

Buffalo at New York Jets

Green Bay Jacksonville

Tennessee at Houston

Minnesota at Arizona

New England at Oakland

Denver at Carolina

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

New York Giants at Dallas

Cleveland at Philadelphia

Last week: 11-5
Season to date: 123-85