Breaking down the final four

Before I get started on picking the AFC and NFC Title games, here are a few links I enjoyed this past week:

Baseball stat nerd turned political stat nerd Nate Silver's breakdown of Obama's win

J.A. Adande remembers Jordan's retirement ceremony

The hilarious Eddy Curry news

Roger Ebert's review of "Notorious"
(I'll share my own review as soon as I see it)

Finally, somebody besides me recognizes how good Percy Harvin was for the Gators



Now to the main event, a breakdown of the best single day pro football has to offer: Championship Sunday. While the two games- Eagles at Cardinals in the NFC and Ravens at Steelers in the AFC- are not the sexiest per say, they do offer some intriguing storylines. None of the four teams are a fluke, despite what people (including yours truly) have said/written previously, and all have a good shot at winning not only this Sunday, but also the big game in Tampa on February 1. Here is what I like about each of the Final Four, followed by my picks.

Philadelphia: For the first time maybe ever, Stephen A. Smith said something intelligent. On the radio earlier this week, he noted that if Donovan McNabb and the Eagles do win the Super Bowl, no less than two months after Mr. Chunky Soup was benched and booed in the City of Brotherly Love, McNabb will have done something that nobody else has ever done in history: Shut the people of Philadelphia up. There’s playing with a chip on your shoulder, but its completely different to be playing with the swagger of proving an entire city filled with your own teams fans wrong. McNabb is, in my opinion, the best QB left in the playoffs, not only because he has the experience of playing in big games, but because he plays as if he has nothing to lose. His coach already questions him, the media is constantly on his back, the fans want him out of town. Yet here are McNabb and the Eagles, who had to watch several teams (including the Bears) lose just to squeak into the playoffs, in their fifth NFC Title game in eight years. The fans may want him gone, but they’ll regret it when he actually leaves.

Arizona: Fool me once, shame on you; Fool me twice, shame on me. I gave the Cards no respect heading into the playoffs, writing before their Wild Card game, “The Cardinals pretty much quit trying after they clinched the NFC West…this looks like a game the Falcons should dominate.” A week later, after dispatching Atlanta, I said, “One of the un-written rules in sports prognostications is this: if a team gives its coach a Gatorade shower after a Wild Card game, they don’t expect to advance any further.” Turns out they did, killing the Panthers in the process. Now Arizona is hosting the NFC Championship game, an amazing accomplishment for a team that was run by Denny Green three years ago. With Kurt Warner throwing the rock, the best wideout in the NFL (Larry Fitzgerald) catching everything in sight and an underrated defense making key stops, Arizona now just needs one win to make their first ever Super Bowl appearance. And unlike most teams that say it, the Cards can actually say ‘Nobody expected us to be here,’ and truly mean it.

Baltimore: Baltimore’s offense will never be confused with the Ram’s Greatest Show on Turf or the Patriots attack of last season. But when the have the ball, the Ravens are quite smart. Using two key runners, the physical Le’Ron McClain and the fast Willis McGahee, the Ravens pound away at defenses until they’re as bruised as a bag of discount fruit. Then Baltimore goes over the top to receivers Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, stretching defenses backwards at the same time they are being pulled into the line of schrimedge to stop the run. The strategy is not that unusual-its almost identical to what the Bears tried to to this season minus all the useless curl routes- but the Ravens do it particularly well because QB Joe Flacco is so skilled at throwing the deep ball. Baltimore always has and always will be known for their amazing D, but the difference with this season’s team is that their offense has a identity of their own.

Pittsburgh: Nobody played a harder schedule this season than the Steelers. They had their normal six games in their division (Baltimore was obviously tough, but Cleveland and Cincinnati were not what they were expected to be), then games against the entire AFC South and NFC East (the worst team combined in those two divisions were the Jaguars, the team that knocked Pittsburgh out of the playoffs last season) and finally, the 2007 division winners from the AFC East (New England) and AFC West (San Diego). Every week it seemed this team was in a spotlight game, and most of the time, they came out victorious. Combine that with what quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has already been through in his short NFL career and an amazingly fast and physical defense, its no surprise the team is so calm when the going gets tough on the field.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Philadelphia at Arizona Ignore the Eagles blowout on Thanksgiving night and don’t mention the Cardinals struggles to end the year. This game will come down to one thing: Which team can run the ball most effectively? Neither team is really a running team, but both want to pound the rock in order to set up more downfield throws. I’ll take a slightly banged-up Brian Westbrook over a fresh Edgerin James, and therefore, a close Philly win. Philadelphia 33, Arizona 28

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Baltimore at Pittsburgh If you’re a high school coach, a parent who wants their kid to be a capable football player or Bears defensive coordinator Bob Babich, here’s a free tip for you: set the TiVo up, because this game is what defense is all about. When Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs are on one side, and James Harrison, James Farrior and Tory Polamalu are on the other, points will be at a premium. Because of that, I have to side with the Steelers, considering they are more rested (Baltimore’s last weekend off was September 14 due to Hurricane Ike in Houston) and have the better quarterback. Pittsburgh 23, Baltimore 10

Playoff Record: 4-4
Season to Date: 158-106