A Florida feast

College football bowl games are always more difficult to preview than regular season affairs. It’s impossible to know if a team used their long break to get healthy and draw up some new plays or get fat and stay stagnant. Who knows what their coach has been telling them for six weeks. And lets not forget the mystery of traveling to a new city for a week and having to deal with excessive media responsibilities.

That being said, I think I have a pretty good grasp on this Thursday’s National Championship game. Florida and Oklahoma are both experienced teams with coaches who have won BCS Titles previously. The Gators and Sooners both have Heisman-winning quarterbacks and rabid fan bases who expect championships from their teams. And most of all, each squad has a lot to prove coming in this game, because their credibility is being challenged. This game, to me, seems like it will come down to can shake off the rust fastest. And that means I like Florida….big.

Now I know what a lot of you are thinking. He’s only picking UF because he’s a fan of theirs. And yes, it is true, come Thursday night I will be wearing my personalized Florida jersey rooting hard for the boys from Gainesville. But even after I take off my Gator gear and put on my analyst attire, I still think Florida will win big. It’s not because of my allegiances to the school off the field. It’s because they will be the dominant team on it.

I am not alone in my thinking. The website CollegeFootballNews.com broke down the game and came up with almost the exact same score as I had planned on predicting. On ESPN earlier, Kirk Herbrsteet said he was leaning towards picking the Gators. The only folks that seem to be picking the Sooners are either people who like to be argumentative or actually citizens of the stare of Oklahoma. Here’s how I break down the two key sides to the ball, and then a pick and analysis of the game itself.

Offense: 255 yards, 41% completion percentage, three passing touchdowns, one rushing score and no interceptions. That was, statistically, Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford’s worst game of the season, a 58-35 win at Kansas State. Yes, I said worst. Bradford was dominant all season long under center for the Sooners, always remaining calm in the face of pressure and leading the way for the country’s #1 scoring and #3 yardage offense. He’s the reason, especially with stud running back DeMarco Murray out with an injury, that some feel that OU has a punchers shot in this game. But for all their skills and dominance, the best of the Big XII is not too far ahead of the SEC’s elite attack. While Florida’s offense averaged about 120 yards and nine points per game fewer than Oklahoma’s did, the Gators offense operated in a completely different fashion. They use speed (Emmanuel Moody and Louis Murphy), super-speed (Jeff Demps and Brandon James) and blink-and-they-are-40-yards-away speed (Chris Rainey and Percy Harvin, if healthy). For a defense, stopping the Gators attack is like trying to stop the horses on the home stretch of the Kentucky Derby: you attack one player and six others will run right by you. And with Tim Tebow running the show, it’s hard to say that UF has any weaknesses on that side of the ball. I think Oklahoma’s hurry-up offense is a bit more talented overall and probably more consistent, so I’ll side with them on this category. But it’s not by much.
Edge: Oklahoma, slightly

Defense: To win the Big XII Championship, a team has to play some sort of defense. With quarterbacks such as Texas’ Colt McCoy, Texas Tech’s Grahm Harrell, Missouri’s Chase Daniel and Oklahoma State’s Zac Robinson throwing the ball all over the league, Oklahoma must have done something right to go 8-1 in conference play. Still, I don’t believe their D will be able to make enough stops to keep the Sooners in the game. OU ranks right in the middle of the country on defense, 65th nationally at 359 yards a game, which would be fine if they were playing in the Armed Forces Bowl or something like that. But in the National Title game, against a UF defense that’s eighth nationally giving up 279 yards per game, it won’t do. As Gator linebacker Brandon Spikes said, “Big XII defenses are a joke.” I’m not sure Oklahoma fits that that distinction, but they aren’t at the Gators level, especially without injured linebacker Ryan Reynolds. Spikes, along with fellow defenders Joe Haden, Major Wright and Carols Dunlap, are future NFL studs, and will have to put their talent on display in this game to ensure the UF victory. Neither side will completely shut down their opponents attack, but Florida’s side is better at rushing the QB, pressuring wideouts and forcing turnovers.
Edge: Florida, by a medium-sized margin


The Pick: Florida 41, Oklahoma 30---Due to the presence of Ohio State, the past two National Championship games have been letdowns. Before that, fans were given the treat of Texas/USC, my pick for the greatest college football game ever. I think this matchup will lie somewhere in the middle. Offenses tend to start slowly in these games, thanks to the long layoff. But come the second and third quarters, watch out. Both Tebow and Bradford will be slinging the ball around, and each side will be desperate for fourth quarter adjustments. I think the Gators, with their superior defensive talent and history of not choking in big games (see Oklahoma vs. Boise State or West Virginia in the past two Fiesta Bowls), making the better changes and taking control of the final 15 minutes. Also, watch for a big game from Jeff Demps. For some reason, I see the little speedster doing some big things come Thursday night.


-Coming Friday will be my post-game thoughts, opinions on the Cubs, and a preview of the Divisional round NFL games.