I'm smarter than I look

An old saying says that all good things must come to an end. The truth is, everything comes to an end eventually, no matter if it was good, bad, or somewhere in between. When I think back on the 2008-09 NFL season, there are definitely some lasting moments I’ll think back on (all the close Bears games, the winless Lions, New England going 11-5 without Tom Brady and Larry Fitzgerald’s playoff dominance, to name a few). At the same time, a lot of the season and even the playoffs were far from spectacular, mainly because what the media hyped up as big stories (the Cowboys, Brett Favre, the Giants going for back-to-back Super Bowls) ended up being Keith Traylor-sized disappointments. I’d call the season average, not great but not horrible. Still, with it coming to an end on Sunday, it’s fun to take a look back, and see how the season evolved. So before I make my Super Bowl pick, here’s a breakdown of my pre-season predictions.

*All of these picks can be seen on my September 1 post, “Guess who’s back?”

AFC:
East- My pick was the Patriots, because as I wrote then, “Even with Brett Favre coming to the division, the other three teams best 53 players couldn’t beat the Patriots.” Turns out, when Brady went down seven minutes into the year, the entire division was flipped 180 degrees. Miami, who went 1-15 a year ago, went onto win the division, while the previously 16-0 Pats and the Favre-led Jets failing to make the post-season.

North- I said Pittsburgh then, and in a rare genius moment, I was right. A lot of people were on the Cleveland bandwagon, but I didn’t trust Derrick Anderson. Turns out that the Steelers top competition was Baltimore, the team that Pittsburgh ended up meeting in the AFC Championship game.

South- The first sentence of my AFC South breakdown was: “I say this is the year the Colts go down.” Genius. Unfortunately I took Jacksonville instead of Tennessee to become the kings of South. Whoops.

West- I took San Diego based on the thinking that the other three teams in the division stunk. Turns out I was mostly correct, except for 80% of the season, the Chargers stunk as well. Phillip Rivers turned it around in time though for my pick to be correct.

Wild Cards- Five months ago, I said Indy and Buffalo (What was I drinking then to make me guess that?) Turns out it was Indy and Baltimore, so at least I got the first team and the first letter of the second one correct.

AFC Champ- This doesn’t happen to often, but read closely to what I wrote five months ago, because I’m about to look like a genius: “Pittsburgh Steelers--- The offense should be great, their defense is always good, and even though it happened a year ago, I don’t like the chances of opponents going into Heinz Field in January and coming out with a win.” If I had switched around the words offense/defense, is that not 100% correct?


NFC:
East- For some reason, I was drinking the Jerry Jones Kool-Aid in September and ended up picking Dallas. Apparently I and the rest of the football world forgot that they choke every season, this year handing the division to their arch-rivals from New York.

North- At least I didn’t take the Lions. Instead I went with Green Bay, which seemed like a smart pick for a month and a half, but in November, the Pack completely fell apart. As we all know, the Bears actually had a shot at winning this thing, but the crown eventually went to Minnesota.

South- Three of the four teams in this division were in playoff contention; I picked the fourth team. I said the Saints should easily handle the division, not knowing how good Carolina’s run game and Falcons QB Matt Ryan was going to be. Both those teams ended up making the playoffs, while New Orleans wasn’t even invited to the party.

West- “Arizona has a lot of talent, but then they remember that they’re the Cardinals and end up 6-10.” Can I really be blamed for this line of thinking? People forget, before 2008, the three guarantees in all of sports were that the LA Clippers, Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Devil Rays would all suck. Turns out by Feb. 2009, only one them still holds true. I went with Seattle, who finished 4-12 or something like that.

Wild Cards- Choosing Philadelphia and Minnesota were my only smart NFC picks, as they both made the playoffs (The Vikings won their division while the Eagles were an actual wild card). If I had somehow known the Falcons would be good, I still probably wouldn’t have picked them.

NFC Champ- Took the Saints, ended up being the Cardinals. What ya gonna do?

Super Bowl- I said Steelers over Saints, which isn’t that far off. Kind of gives away who I’m picking for this Sunday though.


Final Breakdown- I ended up nailing five of the 12 playoff teams, which is pretty much right on par with what the Chicago Tribune’s NFL writers did. (BTW: Check out John Mullen’s NFC Wild Card picks. I really hope, for his sake, he wasn’t being serious. In any case, it may be the first time a guy picked the two teams drafting 1-2 to make the post-season.) Plus I nailed one of the two Super Bowl teams, something only one of their experts was able to do. Overall, not a great season, but I can’t say it was bad either.


So its clear I had a hand on the pulse of the NFL when I made my picks in early September. (more like a few fingers, but who’s counting) But will it help figuring out who is it going to be on Sunday? Both Arizona and Pittsburgh have made compelling arguments since the playoffs began, the Cardinals with their quick-strike offense, bend but don’t break defense and overall team resiliency; the Steelers with a smart and balanced offense, a frighteningly physical D and veteran know-how. I’m going with Pittsburgh- no surprise there considering I picked them at the start of the year- in a close for three quarters but too much at the end type of game. Hines Ward, my favorite Steeler and a guy I thought would always be perfect on the Bears, is questionable, which has me doubting this pick a little bit. But I see Big Ben throwing for a couple scores, Willie Parker runs one in and the black and gold defense seal it with a touchdown of their own. I feel bad for doubting the Cardinals this whole way when they have clearly been better than the respect I’m giving them. At the same time, can Kurt Warner hold up against this bone-crushing D? The last Super Bowl he was in, SB XXXVI (Rams versus Patriots), Warner had trouble figuring out New England’s 3-4 defense until it was too late. Even with all that talent around him, and there is lots of it, I’m not sure the Cardinals attack will be as explosive as it has shown the past month.

My prediction: Steelers 34, Cardinals 21 with Roethlisberger as MVP.
{UPDATE AT 2:26 AM, Sunday February 1- AFTER FURTHER THINKING, I'M NOT SEEING A LOWER-SCORING GAME. SO STEELERS 27, CARDINALS 18}

Playoffs record: 5-5
Regular season: 154-102
Overall: 159-107