Wednesday, April 01, 2009

No fooling here, just the Final Four

After some extensive research, I have found that the four teams remaining in college basketball all share some attributes:

-North Carolina and UConn are both one seeds, while Michigan State and Villanova both beat teams on the top line in their last game to reach the Final Four.

-North Carolina and Michigan State are the alma mater’s of two five of the greatest players ever, while UConn and Villanova are both from the Big East.

-North Carolina and Villanova were both expected to make it to Detroit based on the Hot Dog Guy’s bracket, while Michigan State and UConn were each supposed to exit stage left during the Elite Eight.

You may be wondering what any of that has to do with how these teams will play come Saturday, and the truth is not much; I just thought it was interesting. Here’s an actual breakdown of the two national semifinals to be played Saturday night at Ford Field.

Michigan State vs. UConn

Not many folks gave the Green & White much of a chance in the regional finals against Louisville, and that game was over with 15 minutes left in the second half. Those same doubters now say that Sparty will be dominated by UConn and shouldn’t even bother making the hour-long drive from East Lansing to Motown. But again, that might not be the case.

Talent-wise, the Huskies have an edge. With Mount Thabeet in the middle, Stanley Robinson and Jeff Adrien banging bodies in the post and AJ Price raining threes from the outside, this is the one college squad that I think could give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money. It doesn’t mean Michigan State has no chance though. Tom Izzo’s teams are always well-prepared and their man-to-man D can hang with anybody. Kalin Lucas is as good, if not better, than Price at the point, while Goron Sutton showed in the Louisville game that he can be a huge matchup problem for opposing big men.

In the end though, I think the Big Ten’s lone Cinderella will finally see the clock strike 12. The Huskies are so difficult to score on, and it’s not like the Spartans have Jason Richardson or Shannon Brown anymore. This might be different if forward Raymar Morgan was 100%, but he has been horrendous all season long. MSU will put up an honorable fight, but in the end, I’ll take Connecticut. UConn 71, Michigan State 60

North Carolina vs. Villanova

Only a few teams in the country can match the Wildcats in terms of athleticism. UCLA, Duke and Pitt, all highly respected teams filled with elite players, found that out the hard way, as ‘Nova beat them all on their way to the Motor City. The ‘Cats have quick guards like Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Reggie Redding, plus smooth big men Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark. It’s a better all-around squad the 2006 ‘Nova team, which is high praise from me since I really liked that squad and ended up picking them to win it all that season.

Problem is, their opponents Saturday qualifies as one of those few teams. And even worse, if I had started this preview discussing North Carolina, the opening sentence would have read ‘No team in the country can match the Tar Heels in terms of athleticism.’ Yeah, Roy Williams’ squad, the one with eight previous McDonalds All-Americans on it, is that good. For every great attribute that Villanova has, UNC has it, plus more.

I don’t think it will be a blowout; Villanova is too good for that. And if the Tar Heels fall asleep on defense for any stretch of time, like they did a year ago in this round versus Kansas, they will surely go down. But I can’t envision Tyler Handsbrough, Ty Lawson and the rest of the Heels coming this far again only to be denied. Coach Williams doesn’t have the greatest of track records in big games, but it’s hard to see him losing this one. North Carolina 88, Villanova 80

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