Friday, April 02, 2010

What's Cutler got to do with the Cubs?

Some lessons are learned the easy way: you hear advice, you acknowledge it, lesson learned. Others aren't so simple. It's the old hand-in-the-fire cliche, that you have to experience the negative to learn the lesson.

A year ago today, the Bears traded Kyle Orton and a pair of first round picks to Denver for Jay Cutler and a third. The entire city of Chicago celebrated, thinking that the Bears had finally landed a top-flight quarterback that could lead them to the Super Bowl. In my 22 years living in this city, here is how I rank the excitement for athletes arrivals: 3) Mark Prior as a rookie, 2001 2) Jay Culer via trade, 2009 1) Michael Jordan's first comeback, 1995. That's high company.

As we found out, Cutler wasn't everything we'd hoped. The QB led the NFL in interceptions, especially in the bone-headed variety. Fans were wishing that Rex Grossman was still under center...midway through the first game of the season. It was not what fans had expected on April 2, 2009.

Hopes went up, actual results came crashing down. Thankfully, I've learned my lesson, and won't be repeating that mistake. So with that, here's my Cubs preview for 2010:

(Note: Not doing a full baseball preview, because honestly I didn't follow much of the offseason for the other 29 MLB teams.)

When I saw the Cubs this spring in Arizona, a few things jumped out at me. One, that a bunch of guys (Soriano, Big Z, Soto) seemed to be in better shape than they were in 2009. Two, that the team seemed to be having more fun than they did last year. And three, they seem to be a faster all-around team than I've seen since 2003.

A slimmed-down Geovany Soto (photo by me)

Obviously all three of those things are positives. So too is that they will depart Arizona fairly healthy. Dumping offseason mistake from last winter, namely Meltdown Bradley and Kevin Gregg, helps a lot. And maybe another few months under the belt of youngsters like Randy Wells, Jeff Samardzija and Sean Marshall will help out.

Then again, this is the Cubs we're talking about. Nothing ever goes as planned, from injuries to performance to overall buzz around the team. Last year was supposed to be the year, but then Aramis Ramirez tore his shoulder, Soriano couldn't walk (both in the sense of taking four balls and in just moving one foot in front of the other) and the team falls apart. This season expectations are lowered (most people have them projected around 80 wins), but the pressure from fans is still present. The Rickets family is in year one, Lou is in his final year, and there's still that other year still hanging over the team like a kippah: 1908.

If the Cubs are going to be a factor this year, they have to start strong. They don't play any of the 2009 NL playoff teams until May 17 (when they begin a stretch of playing 11 games versus all the postseason teams, the Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers AND Cardinals, in a 14-day span) and have a good dose of the league's bottom-feeders over those first seven weeks. Of course staying healthy will be key, and it still remains to be seen if Soto's new shape will help him turn back to his '08 version, if new CF Marlon Byrd is the real deal, if Kouske can start well and keep it up the entire year, if Zambrano can live up to his $15 million/year contract, if the bullpen can hold leads, if Marmol can close consistently, plus a few speed bumps still unknown.

Zambrano warming up (photo by me)

I hate making predictions about any baseball team, because the season is so long and there are countless numbers of things that can change between April 5 and October 30. I hate making predictions about the Cubs, because it's impossible for me to not think with my heart instead of my head. So I won't give any projected win-loss numbers or place in the standings or playoff projections. Just know this: If Soriano, Ramriez and Lee combine for a total of (at least) 415 games played; and if Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster and Wells combine for (at least) 55 wins; and if the bullpen has a cumulative ERA of under 4, things will be good on the North Side.

If not, well at least Jay Cutler will be back under center for the Bears in September.

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