Watch for a Wild Bear

Major innovation comes along rarely in sports play calling, but when it does, it makes a big difference. Think of how much the pick-and-roll changed basketball: the point guard was cleared from his defender, switched onto another opponent, and given the option to either drive to the basket or dish it to a teammate. The pick-and-roll is one play - maybe the only one in all of sports - that when perfectly executed, it’s impossible to defend.

Last season, the Miami Dolphins had a football innovation. Well, sort of. They brought back an offense called the Single Wing, but they made some minor changes and re-named it the Wildcat. With running back Ronnie Brown behind center instead of a quarterback, it gave Brown the option of keeping the ball on a draw or handing it off to fellow back Ricky Williams. Opposing teams were thrown off guard by this formation, and Miami used it in its run to the playoffs last season.

A year later, the Wildcat has exploded onto the NFL scene. Nearly every team uses it, though still nobody does it as well as the Dolphins. In last week’s Monday Night game against the Jets, the ‘Phins ran for 103 yards out of the ‘gimmick’ formation, including the game-winning two-yard TD run by Brown with five seconds left.

This week, and this is one of the craziest predictions I’ve ever made on this blog, I’m predicting the Bears will use the Wildcat for the first time in their game against the Falcons. You want reasons why? Here’s three of them:

1) They’ve got the perfect player for it: Devin Hester. He’s no longer an elite kick/punt returner, but he would be dynamic in the backfield alongside Matt Forte. Hester is still good at finding a gap in the defense, and when he finds it, it’s over - six points. He’s also a versatile player, meaning he would know when to hand it to Forte, when to keep it, maybe even when to throw it on a trick play.

2) They are starting a six-week stretch of inter-division opponents. That means no Lions, Packers or Vikings until Nov. 29. It also means they are facing teams that are un-familiar with the Bears’ personnel. Adding a new package makes perfect sense at this time of the season, because it allows them to put more plays and formations on film for those final six weeks of the year, when the opponents know the Bears as well as anybody.

3) Atlanta isn’t a great run defense team, ranking 24th in the league with 127 rushing yards per game. Meaning they are the perfect squad to try something new against. If the Bears were playing say, Baltimore, maybe it’s not a great idea to give the ball to a wide receiver in the backfield. But a team that struggles tacking like Atlanta does is ideal for a squad trying out something new. I expect Jay Cutler to be out wide and Hester in the shotgun at least twice this Sunday.

But will the Bears win? We all remember last year’s game in the Georgia Dome, and now comes time for revenge. Find out who I like below in my Week 6 picks, winners in bold.

Houston at Cincinnati

Detroit at Green Bay

Baltimore at Minnesota

New York Giants at New Orleans

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Kansas City at Washington

St. Louis at Jacksonville

Philadelphia at Oakland

Arizona at Seattle

Tennessee at New England

Buffalo at New York Jets

Chicago at Atlanta

Denver at San Diego

Last Week: 9-5
Season to Date: 55-21

In the survival pool, I'm still alive after taking the Eagles last week. This Sunday, another green and white team, as I'm going with the Jets.

A rightfielder leaves as a QB arrives

I’ll give you five numerical reasons why Milton Bradley should shut his mouth: .257 BA, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 61 runs scored, 95 K’s.

And for good measure, here’s one more: 10

That last number? That’s how many games the Cubs trail St. Louis in the NL Central after their Sunday night win, sans-Bradley. It’s also how much money Bradley is making this season, adding six zeros to the end.

The right fielder was suspended by team management Sunday for the remainder of the 2009 after making some ridiculous comments. Most likely, Wrigley’s right field bleachers have seen the last of Bradley in Cubbie blue. He said Saturday in a newspaper interview, about the Cubs,” You understand why they haven't won in 100 years here." This comes after taking himself out of games, calling Cubs fans racists, constantly yelling at Lou Piniella, alienating teammates, losing track of the number of outs in a game and being ejected after his first-ever at-bat in a Cubs uniform. Oh, and putting up those stats above.

Even though I disagreed with the signing when it happened - scroll down to the bottom of this column for my Cubs thoughts - I tried my best to support Bradley. Didn’t boo him when he stepped to the plate, gave him a chance to prove me wrong, did all the things a loyal fan would do for a new acquisition.

But I quit doing that when Bradley quit playing hard. My theory since day one is that the fans will support you when you are playing well and turn on you when you struggle; it’s just how the human body is programmed. Nobody likes paying $75 for a ticket to a Cubs game to see the high-paid right fielder loaf around and not try to win the game. And since they can’t get their money back, the 41,000 do the next best thing - boo. And then Bradley turns around and insults the fans and organization, the same group of people paying him $30 million over the next three years to play baseball.

I say good riddance Milton Bradley. Take your selfishness, laziness and Neifi Perez-like batting average somewhere else. I’m not blaming all of 2009’s problems on Bradley, because there is plenty of that to go around. But I am saying that it may be 101 years and counting for the Cubs to win the World Series, but I’m positive the team is much closer to the trophy without Bradley than with him.

Football Thought of the Week

It’s tough for me to say the Bears deserved to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh had more first downs, more total yards, more than twice the rushing yards, won time of possession and had fewer penalties. The Steelers also had a two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback, the most feared defense in the league and an opponent on the ropes in must-win mode.

Yet through all of that, the final score from rain-soaked Soldier Field read Bears 17, Steelers 14. A week after erratic play from Jay Cutler and a bone-headed special teams play cost the Bears a win at Lambeau Field, the QB’s Derrick Rose-like calm under pressure and a gift from the kicking Gods put the Bears into the ‘W’ column for the first time in ’09. It wasn’t pretty, but it worked.

There’s no question that the win came courtesy of Steelers kicker Jeff Reed, who shanked two fourth quarter kicks, putting Robbie Gould in the position of nailing the game-winner for the Bears. But just as he deserved blame last week, much of the credit has to go to Jay Cutler. Taking the Bears down the field twice in the fourth quarter, first on a TD pass to Johnny Knox (a breakout star in the receiving corps) and then on the game-winning drive, Cutler showed poise and confidence rarely seen by a Chicago signal-caller. He still hasn’t had the luxury of a good running attack - Matt Forte has a total of 84 rushing yards on the season - but Cutler seemed to do it all on his own Sunday.

Now 1-1, the Bears have one game left in their three-game gauntlet to open the season, at Seattle next Sunday. Qwest Field has always been one of the toughest places in the league for opponents to play, even when the Seahawks aren’t the greatest of teams. And with Matt Hasslebeck apparently out, they won’t be as tough as originally predicted. It helps that the team already has one win under their belt, and it was thanks to their key off-season acquisition that’s the case.

Lane 'Volunteers' for a whoopin

Don't worry, I'll get into Bears-Packers in-depth later in the week. Two quick thoughts:

1) Jay Cutler deserves as much blame for this loss as Nathan Vasher, Pat Mannelly, the receivers who stopped their routes, etc. You can't throw four picks and expect to win on the road versus a good team.

2) While the loss stung bad, the worst news was that Brian Urlacher may need wrist surgery. No telling how long he'll be sidelined (UPDATE: He's out for the year, which is HORRIBLE news), but the defense is completely different with #54 on the bench.

Football Thought of the Week

Last Saturday's college football action was everything a fan could have hoped for. In Ann Arbor, Notre Dame and Michigan traded big plays and points for three hours, putting on a roller coaster affair that ended with a last-minute drive orchistrated by a freshmen QB making his second ever start. In Columbus, USC and Ohio State put on a game worthy of their top-10 rankings, a thrilling afair which the Buckeyes dominated and the Trojans somehow won. And in Stillwater, the most-obvious overrated team in the land fell, as Houston took out Oklahoma State.

This Saturday's college football action should be everything that a University of Florida fan could ask for. That's because the Tennessee Volunteers head into Gainseville to take on the National Champs, and oh what a game it should be. Vegas lists Florida as a 25-point favorite, and based on the history of UF coach Urban Meyer, I'll take the Gators to cover...by halftime.

Last February, when he was hired as the Vols new head coach, Lane Kiffiin talked about how excited he was to have the job. Specifically he discussed a tradition he was looking forward to taking part in somewhere down the road.

"I'm really looking forward to embracing some of the great traditions at the University of Tennessee, for instance the Vol Walk, running through the T, singing Rocky Top all night long after we beat Florida next year," Kiffin said. "It will be a blast."

There's no doubt that Meyer is reminding his squad every day this week about that quote. Beating Tennessee has always been a priority for the Florida coach, a reason he's 11-1 during his Gators tenure against rivals Florida State, Georgia and Tennessee. The last two years, Florida has beaten the Vols by a combined score of 89-26. But extracting revenge is another priority. Every slight to the Gators is used as fuel, and there's no bigger slight than saying your looking forward to going into the Swamp and taking out Tim Tebow's crew.

Oh, and did I mention that Tennessee lost last week at home to UCLA and that the Gators return not only Tebow but all 11 defensive starters from last season's title winning team? 25 points should be nothing.

Pigskin Madness, part II

Football Thought of the Week

This is part II of my 2009-10 NFL preview. Here is part I.

AFC

East: 1) New England 2) Miami 3)Buffalo 4) NY Jets

Who knows if Tom Brady will stay healthy, but if they get any more than one quarter out of him this season, the Patriots will make their presence felt in the AFC. The Dolphins, who won the division a year ago, will take the standard step back that surprise teams tend to do with tougher schedules. Buffalo and New York each could contend, but I don't see enough defense from the Bills or offense from the Jets.

North: 1) Pittsburgh 2) Baltimore 3) Cincinnati 4) Cleveland

The Steelers were my pick to win it all last year, and sure enough, they did. I'm still on the Pittsburgh bandwagon, even though I see a bit of a downturn in '09. Their dominance over Baltimore gives them the division over to the Ravens, who I think could be even tougher this year thanks to the impressive running of Ray Rice. Based on Hard Knocks, I see the Bengals actually contending for a while before Carson Palmer gets hurt. That will leave them with about seven wins, four more than the Browns will grab.

South: 1) Indianapolis 2) Houston 3) Tennessee 4) Jacksonville

I'm as likely of nailing the correct order of these four teams through research as I would be picking the names out of a hat; they're just that even. Despite a new head coach, I'll take Peyton and the Colts to come in first, followed closely by the ever-improving Texans. If Houston can ever figure out how to win in the early part of the season, or Matt Schaub can stay healthy, they'll win at least 10 games. The Titans will see a slip from last season, even though their D and run game are still really good. And last is the Jaguars, who I actually think are underrated, but just not good enough to win the South.

West: 1) San Diego 2) Oakland 3) Kansas City 4) Denver

In the 2008 regular season, the Chargers went 5-1 in their division and 3-7 versus the rest of the league. Expect similar numbers this year. I think San Diego is talented but overrated, yet still light years better than the other three. The Raiders come in second, if their coaches can stop fighting each other. Look for Darren McFadden to have a big season. I'm interested to see what K.C. does with a new QB and reshaped defense. And last but not least are the Broncos, who I would once again like to thank for trading Jay Cutler.

PLAYOFFS

NFC

3) New Orleans over 6) Green Bay
5) NY Giants over 4) Seattle

5) NY Giants over 1) Philadelphia
2) Chicago over 3) New Orleans

5) NY Giants over 2) Chicago

AFC

3) Indianapolis over 6) Houston
5) Baltimore over 3) San Diego

1) New England over 5) Baltimore
2) Pittsburgh over 3) Indianapolis

2) Pittsburgh over 1) New England

SUPER BOWL

New York Giants 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 23

I can see you asking yourself, "Three consecutive road victories for the G-Men on the way to the Super Bowl? Again?" Yes, it's an almost identical road N.Y. took to the 2008 big game, and that turned out pretty well for them. I think the Giants' receivers will get better as the year progresses, and by playoff time, they'll be one of the most dangerous corps' in football. The Steelers come close to repeating, but Eli tops Ben in another classic Super Bowl.

NOTE: Here is the upcoming schedule for a busy week here on the blog.

Thursday: Bears schedule breakdown and Week 1 NFL picks
Friday: Honoring new Hall-of-Famer Michael Jordan

Pigskin Madness, part I

Football Thought of the Week

After pouring through most of Sports Illustrated's mammoth NFL preview issue, reading up about every team online and watching a good share of pre-season action (as much pre-season action as one sane person can without getting paid for it), I believe it is time for my 2009-10 NFL predictions.

Before I get started though, there is one key word I want to emphasise: madness. Usually reserved for the great month of March, those seven letters are going to define September, October, November, December, January and the first Sunday in February this season. Example? Of the eight division winners last season, would anybody be shocked if seven of them didn't re-peat this year? Only San Diego seems to be a lock. Of the four teams that made it to championship weekend last year, all four seem to have gotten worse over the summer.

Tom Brady is healthy, Mike Vick is back and Brett Favre is too (though he never really left, unfortunately). There's no question who the best running back in the NFL is (AP), but there are about five guys gunning for that number two spot, none of whom are named Tomlinson. The NFC North is now QB Central, while Peyton Manning and the Colts may be the worst team in the AFC South. And of all things, a scoreboard has take Terrell Owens' place in Dallas as the must-mention Cowboys distraction. Welcome back to football, where this season is sure to be pure madness.

Today is part I, the NFC and awards. Tuesday will be part II, the AFC and playoff picks.

NFC

East: 1)Philadelphia 2) NY Giants 3) Dallas 4) Washington

The Giants run the ball, play great D and have an adequate QB in Eli Manning. What they lack though is a game-breaker on offense, something the Eagles possess in DeSean Jackson (and Brian Westbrook, and maybe Jeremy Maclin, and maybe Mike Vick). Philly's defense is a question, especially in the secondary, but I see them grabbing 10 wins, good enough for the division title.

North: 1) Chicago 2) Green Bay 3) Minnesota 4) Detroit

No question here, the Lions will be the most improved team in the entire NFL; they should eclipse last year's win total by Thanksgiving. The top of the division looks like the NFC's most competitive, with the Bears, Pack and Vikes all aiming for the playoffs. Call me a homer - you wouldn't be the first - but I like Chicago. A favorable schedule (G.B. and Minnesota both come to Soldier Field in December), a much-improved offense and a rejuvenated D should earn the Bears 11 wins, while the other two will fight it out for second place.*

*In-depth Bears breakdown coming later in the week.

South: 1) New Orleans 2) Atlanta 3) Carolina 4) Tampa Bay

For some reason, I'm always a sucker for picking the Saints. The combo of Drew Brees, talented receivers, a good running game and a defense that can't possibly be worse than the 2008 version has me thinking that N.O. can make a playoff run. The Falcons and Panthers each will see a drop-off from last year's post-season births, because I have my doubts if Matt Ryan and the Carolina run game can repeat their success.

West: 1) Seattle 2) San Francisco 3) Arizona 4) St. Louis

It's not because they lost the Super Bowl that I think the Cardinals will return to their rightful spot at the bottom of the division; it's because I don't think they are very good. Outside of Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin, this team doesn't have many noteworthy players. And Warner seems doomed for a letdown year. Seattle won't be great, but the 'Hawks should be better than everybody else out West.

Award winners

MVP - Drew Bree, New Orleans - He should have won it in 2006 and maybe should have won it last year as well. It will be tough to deny him this year if he puts up similar numbers and the Saints make the playoffs.

Defensive POY - Ed Reed, Baltimore - Simply put, no defender impacts the game as much as Reed does as the center fielder for the dominant Ravens D. He was a beast last year and will do it again this season.

Offensive ROY - Knowshon Moreno, Denver - This is a random guess, but for the sake of my fantasy football team, I hope it turns true. With the skill guys on the Broncos, they'd be dumb not to give him the ball 25 times per game.

Defensive ROY - Aaron Curry, Seattle - Smart linebacker + already talented team + weak opponents = big numbers for the former Wake Forest star.

College kickoff 2009

You feel that? That's September air we're breathing, which can only mean two things: 1) Going back to school and 2) Football season is upon us. High school football kicked off last Friday (at least here in Illinois it did), college football begins this Thursday and the NFL starts a week after that. With Tim Tebow's return, Jay Cutler's arrival and a horrible Cubs team, I am more than ready for some pigskin action.

Just as I've done the last few seasons, I will be posting my weekly NFL picks on the blog, along with a Monday 'Football Thought of the Week'. And just as I did with 'Thought of the Day' over the summer, the picks and football ramblings will be labeled, so that you can go back through the archives and see my wonderful prognostication skills. To kick things off, here are some predictions for the upcoming college football season.

Football Thought of the Week

• Despite history saying otherwise, Florida will finish 14-0 and win the National Title. No team from the SEC has finished undefeated and won the National Championship since Tennessee in 1998 (Aubun ran the table in '04 but didn't play for the crystal trophy), but the Gators are so stacked, I don't see them falling in 2009. The offense will have sort through some kinks at first, due to the loss of receivers Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy. But with easy opponents early on, a dominating defense and of course Tebow, the Gators should be rolling by the time the meat of their schedule begins. One game to watch out for: Oct. 17 versus Arkansas. Coming off a tough game at LSU, the Gators better be ready for the Hogs.
• Behind the steady play of Darryl Clark and ferocious defense, Penn State improves upon their impressive 2008 and runs the table in '09. Their toughest game isn't the November 7 showdown versus Ohio State in Happy Valley, but instead road games at Michigan (Oct. 24) and Michigan State (Nov. 21). Survive the Great Lake State and JoePa's squad will play for a National Title.
  
• Both Texas and Oklahoma will finish the regular season with a loss, meaning whoever wins the Red River Rivalry will go down at some other point. This won't stop UT from winning the Big XII South and Colt McCoy from winning the Heisman, as voters feel bad for shafting the Longhorns and their star QB in 2008.
• Thanks to starting a talented freshmen quarterback, USC will both win and lose a game they shouldn't. (Note: That loss won't be to the Irish in South Bend) My predictions for the Trojans -- a loss at Cal, but a close win at Ohio State. And of course, another Rose Bowl victory.
• Speaking of Notre Dame, they'll go 8-4 in the regular season followed by another New Years Day Bowl loss. L's in '09 will come against Michigan (UM has to win that one), USC, Pittsburgh and Stanford.
  
• Top 5 over-rated teams: Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, LSU and Florida State
• Top 5 under-rated teams: Penn State, TCU, Kansas, West Virginia and Arkansas (and potentially Northwestern if they can find a reliable running back)
• A few high-profile coaching jobs will open up this winter, most notably at Miami and Colorado. Also former rivals Bobby Bowden (Florida State) and Steve Spurrier (South Carolina) will both retire from college football.
  
• Conference champs: ACC- Virginia Tech, Big Ten- Penn State, Big XII- Texas, Big East- West Virginia, Pac-10- USC, SEC- Florida
• Heisman winner: Colt McCoy, Texas (Top vote getter besides McCoy, Tebow and Bradford is Penn State QB Darryl Clark
• National Championship: Florida 31, Penn State 14