I am writing today from my new ‘office’ in downtown Chicago. The place is located a block away from Grant Park, the site of the Bulls six championship rallies during the ‘90’s, and from my window (Note, I’m on the 18th floor) I can see part of Soldier Field, the home of the defending NFC Champs. Yet today, I need to vent about the third Windy City team that is worth discussing, the Cubs.
As of right now, August 23 at about 5:40 PM, the Cubs are a half game ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers and two and a half up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the race for the NL Central crown. The Cardinals host the Florida Marlins tonight, so they will either be an even two or three GB when we go to bed tonight. With a month plus a few weeks left (To be exact, at the end of the night, the Cubs will have 36 games left, the Brewers 34 and the Cards 38) the teams are in one of the tightest races in all of baseball. Right now, in my opinion, there is no favorite, because all three squads have so many questions that haven’t been answered yet. So instead of arguing about these questions that we have no clue how they will turn out, it is much easier and makes much more sense to try to understand the question, figuring out how they will impact this race.
CUBS-When will Alfonso Soriano return and what kind of impact can he make?
Since All-Star left fielder Soriano went down with a strained right quad on August 5, the Cubs are 7-10 (Including the game on 8/5). Not a horrible record by any means, but not good enough for a team in the running for a division title. So the problem has obviously been the top of the order, right? Nope. Ryan Theriot has been great leading off, and the trio of Mark DeRosa, Jacque Jones and Jason Kendall have solidified the number two hole. But something still isn’t right about the offense. Take for example the recently completed Giants series. In inning’s one through eight of the three game set, the Cubs scored a combined three runs. Three runs in 24 innings. Texas scored 30 in nine last night. So something is obviously wrong. Soriano claims he is 100 percent ready to go, but Cubs management is still holding him out, fearing that one more tweak of the quad and he is done for the year. When he returns, manager Lou Piniella says he will lead off, meaning Theriot goes back to number two and those other guys drop back down to spots six through eight. It obviously will help the teams hitting to have one of our best power hitters back, but not if he’s going to get hurt again. He is undoubtedly the most important player on the Cubs roster the rest of the way.
BREWERS-Can their young, inexperienced guys handle the pressure of the teams first pennant race in 25 years?
The last time the Brew Crew made a playoff appearance, 1982, rookie third baseman Ryan Braun was still a fragment of his parent’s imagination. Braun was born thirteen and a half months after that playoff trip, which ended in a Game 7 World Series loss to, who else, the Cardinals. So to say that Milwaukee hasn’t been in a playoff race in a while is an understatement. Usually I don’t think this matters, because even a team filled with a bunch of in-experienced players (Say for example, the Cubs), have some key people (Piniella, D-Lee, DeRosa, Soriano) who have been there before. But not the Brewers. Taking a look at their roster, I can find only three players that have been in a playoff race before. There is backup shortstop Craig Counsell, who played for the ’01 World Series champion Diamondbacks. Damien Miller, the backup catcher, was also on that Arizona squad. And number three starter Jeff Suppan, who has a grand total of one win since June 6, was on last season’s Cardinals team. So really, I can find zero players of importance that have been in a playoff race before. I’m not saying the Brewers cant win this year, I’m just saying nothing in the teams or individual players history says they will.
*After writing this paragraph, I went back and re-read it and realized that if the Brewers team history lessens their chances of winning this year, then the Cubs’ all but eliminates them from contention.
CARDINALS-Will the pitching staff be the group that threw for the first four months of the year or the ones that have been on the hill the last three weeks?
It’s never good when you are the absolute worst in the Majors in any category, especially one as important as starting pitching ERA. Yet here are the Cardinals, right in the race, with their starters averaging over 5 runs a game. That’s the bad news. The good news is that since August 1, Red Bird hurlers have an ERA of 3.73 (that’s both the starters and the bullpen). So is this an exception or a trend? The Cub fan in me wants to say it’s an exception, but it’s probablly a trend. Tony LaRussa has had to replace nearly all of his starters over the course of the season due to injuries and in-efficiency, but now has a solid rotation going led by young stud Adam Wainwright and former reliever Braden Looper. The back end of the rotation is still weak, (Wainright’s next loss will be his tenth, making him the fourth Cardinal with double-digit defeats. The Cubs and Brewers have a combined two, both on Milwaukee) and injuries have hurt the team all year. Still, if you have the pitching in September, you have a chance to contend.
PREDICTION
Here’s how I see the NL Central standings looking on October 1.
1---Cubs 88-74
2---Cardinals 85-77
3---Brewers 84-78
Maybe that’s a homer pick, but I think the Cubs are in the best situation to take the division. They have the best starting rotation by far, they have guys who have been in races before, but best of all they have the schedule. While a big four-city, eleven game road trip will be huge, (Even though they will be at Wrigley for one game on that trip, it will seem like a road game to all the players, so it is counted as a road game.) the Cubs at least have the luxury of some off-days in September (the 20th and 24th). St. Louis on the other hand has their last non-game day on August 27, giving them 35 games in the season’s final 34 games. (Reason is the Cubs-Cards double-header on Sept. 15 because of the makeup of the Josh Hancock game). And the Brewers will be in it until the last weeks of the year, when their final 11 games against the Braves, Cardinals, and Padres sink them.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
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