NBA Preview 2007-08

This column will be kind of backwards, because instead waiting until the very end, I’m going to give my week eight NFL picks at the start, and then do my NBA preview. Everyone good with that? All right, lets go.

First off actually, before the picks, I would like to make a comment on the current state of the NFL. Where did all the talented quarterbacks go? Just take a look at some of the guys that will be taking snaps this week. Carolina is starting Vinny Testaverde, against the undefeated Colts, Tennessee might be going with Kerry Collins at Oakland, Trent Dilfer will be under center for the 49ers, and worst of all, the Jaguars have Quinn Gray starting against Tampa Bay. These guys make the matchup at Soldier Field, John Kitna versus Brian Griese, look like Montana versus Elway. A lot of it has to do with injuries, but I think there is generally a lull in the talent at the sports most important position. And to think, a guy like Chris Leak can’t get a job. It’s really insane.

Here are the week eight games with my picks in bold

Detroit at Chicago

Pittsburgh at theCincinnati

Indianapolis at Carolina

Oakland at Tennessee

Cleveland at St. Louis

New York Giants vs. Miami (In London)

Philadelphia at Minnesota

Buffalo at New York Jets

Houston at San Diego

Jacksonville at Tampa Bay

New Orleans at San Francisco

Washington at New England

Green Bay at Denver

Last Week: 9-5
Season to Date: 63-40 (61%)


With the NBA kicking off in the upcoming week, I figured now was a good time for the annual preview. The ’07-’08 season looks like it should be an exciting one, with a great rookie class joining a league that was absolute madness during the playoffs. Of course, before the first tip-off, I had some questions that needed asking. Here are the ten pressing questions regarding the NBA this season.

1)First off, how will the Bulls do?
Well not everything about the Bulls has been decided, namely, who will start at power forward. The three choices as of right now are free agent acquisition Joe Smith, second-year stud Tyrus Thomas, or the surprise of the group, second round pick Aaron Gray. I would personally prefer Smith, the veteran of the three, but he is not 100 percent healthy.

Once that gets settled, I believe the Bulls are the most complete team in the Eastern Conference. As it has been the last few years, the strength of this years squad will be defense. With Ben Wallace in the middle, the pesky Kirk Hinrich on the outside and a strong supporting cast of underrated defenders like Luol Deng, Thomas, Andreas Nocioni and rookie Joakim Noah, the Bulls will beat up opponents all year long. The key question will be weather the team can put up points. Deng and Ben Gordon are good for twenty points each a night, but the team still lacks the one guy who can take over the game. There are the obvious Kobe Bryant trade rumors to fix that problem, and after going back and forth on this issue about seventy-five times, I have concluded that it doesn’t really make sense to go after Kobe. While his scoring would be a great acquisition, would it really make the Bulls the best team in the league? And that of course is the goal of putting the team together. Now, if the price somehow drops, and we can get KB-24 for a package of Gordon, Noah and a future draft pick (and probably an expiring contract like Adrian Griffin), then by all means, John Paxon should say yes to the Lakers. But until that happens, it will be up on this supporting cast to assist Deng and Gordon to put points on the scoreboard.

2)How does the rest of the East look?
I will get into the new and improved Boston Celtics later on (question six), but they are considered by many to be the favorites. The Pistons, Cavs, and Heat round out the top contenders in the conference, and honestly, I don’t think any of the three got better over the summer. Detroit has basically the same roster, but is a year older. Cleveland still didn’t add a guy to take pressure of LeBron at the end of games. And Miami, who just traded for notorious team killer Ricky Davis earlier this week, still has giant questions about staying healthy.

Looking at all the teams in the East, the two teams I see ready to make a run are the Nets and the Hawks (Yes, you read that correctly. The Hawks) New Jersey has their core back healthy, and they have added a nice piece in Jamaal Magloire. If Vince Carter can go back to being the player he was in Toronto, the one whose goal was to jump over as many people as possible, the Nets have a great shot. But if he still is trying to prove himself as a three point shooter, and Richard Jefferson has another so-so season, Jay-Z’s squad may be in trouble. Atlanta had a great draft, taking Al Horford and Acie Law IV, two good players to go along with Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Marvin Williams. If Law can be the point guard he was at Texas A&M, I like the Hawks future, especially in the crappy Southeast division.

3)And the West?
I know I’m not going on too far of a limb here, but I can guarantee that the NBA Champion will come out of the West for the eighth time in the ten years since Michael Jordan retired from the Bulls. The leagues five best teams - Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Houston and Utah - all play out West, and it should be a great fight for the Finals.

Once again, as I’ve said the past few seasons, I really like the Suns. If you can’t find joy in watching them play, then you probably don’t like basketball. There’s questions about Steve Nash’s health and Shawn Marrion’s trade requests (which I could rant about in a whole different column, considering that’s the dumbest move in Trade Demand History), but Phoenix still plays the best and most exciting offensive basketball in the league.

The Mavs had amazing success in the regular season a year ago, only to see it disappear in the playoffs versus Golden State. I’m interested in seeing how Devin Harris can run the point and to see if Josh Howard can break out and be a legitimate number two scorer.

San Antonio, as always, will be physical on defense, strong rebounders, and efficient on offense. Unless one of there top three (Duncan, Parker, Manu) get hurt, the Spurs have to be considered the favorites- even if they don’t have home-court in the playoffs.

The Rockets made a coaching switch, added some nice pieces in Mike James, Steve Francis, and rookies Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. But the main issue for Houston, as always, is can Yao Ming and T-Mac stay healthy? If so, I think this could be the year that they get out of the first round and really do some playoff damage.

The sleeper of the group is Utah. Even after making the Western Conference Finals last season, it seems that not a lot of people are taking this team seriously. Trust me, Deron Williams is for real, Carlos Boozer is a beast, and I like guard Ronnie Brewer. Watch out for Jerry Sloan’s crew.

4)Who is going to be the breakout player of this year? /
This was a tough choice, but one guy who really stands out is Orlando Magic point guard Jameer Nelson. The former College Player of the Year (and arch enemy of Billy Packer) has a bunch of solid scorers around him (Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewi$, maybe JJ Redick) and will be able to put up about eight assists a night. But more importantly, I think Nelson will start to look to score more, and if he puts up 15 points a game to go along with all those passes, (Last season he put up 13 points, 5 dimes) he could push the Magic into the playoffs. Too bad Orlando wasted all their cap room on Lewis, since this is Nelson’s contract year.

5)What rookie not named Kevin Durant will be most impressive?
If you read the blog during last season’s college hoops season, than you know how much I love new Sonics forward Kevin Durant. Instead of recapping the love, I’ll just say this: The second KD was drafted, he was among the NBA’s top five scorers. Anyways, he is my obvious Rookie of the Year pick, so I thought I would focus on a different rook. And since Greg Oden is out for the year with an injury, I’m going with another guy who should put up big numbers, Clippers forward Al Thornton. The former Florida State Seminole was a beast in college (20 points, 7 boards, almost 80 percent from the free throw line as a senior) and because of an injury to Elton Brand, Big Al should get plenty of playing time on the Clipper front line. The Clippers will suck (Just like the good ol days), but it won’t be because of Thornton.


6)Why is everyone jumping on the Celtics bandwagon?
Lets see. They traded for two of the league’s top thirty-five players without getting rid of the one guy they already had on that list. So if my math is correct, that means Boston now has three of the top thirty-five in the NBA. Only the Suns can equal that. Does that mean the Celtics will be as good as Phoenix is? Not exactly. Because instead of Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw supporting the three superstars, Boston has Rajon Rondo, Kendrik Perkins and James Posey. Boston will be good enough to win the Atlantic and make some playoff noise, but I think the Bulls and Pistons are both better in the East.

7)Who is going to be the breakout team?
If you look at question three, you would assume my breakout team would be from the East. But for some strange reason, that isn’t true. The truth is, I really like the New Orleans Hornets, even though they are in the same division as Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston (and a decent Memphis squad). Point guard Chris Paul is ready to make ‘The Jump’, similar to what fellow Draft Class of 2005 guard Deron Williams did during last years playoffs. Big man David West is an underrated power forward, as is new shooting guard Morris Peterson. But best of all, they got the steal of the draft in former Kansas forward Julian Wright. A tremendous passer for a forward, the duo of Wright and Paul should provide good looks for scorers like West, Peterson and Peja Stojakovic.


8)Which team that everybody is talking about is most likely to miss the playoffs? Two years ago, they were NBA champs. Last year, they got swept in the first round. This season, I’m not even sure the Miami Heat will make the playoffs. Dwyane Wade still isn’t one hundred percent healed from that horrible shoulder and knee injuries he suffered last year, Shaq is on the downside of his career, and I don’t have any faith in Jason Williams and Ricky Davis to put up big numbers. I see Miami in next years lottery.

9)And on the opposite end, which team will be the surprise of the league? They may not have a lot of depth, there best player has demanded a trade, and nobody is giving them a chance. And that is exactly why the LA Lakers will be a surprise team this season. I believe Kobe Bryant will stay on the West Coast and will be more motivated than ever to prove he’s the NBA’s best player. I think the acquisition of Derek Fisher was a good one, since he knows the triangle offense very well and can knock down open threes. And most of all, I like Luke Walton and Lamar Odom in the front court, because there both good passers and solid shooters. Plus there is never, ever a reason to bet against a Phil Jackson coached team.

10)Last but not least, who will win MVP, ROY, the East, the West, and then the Finals?
For MVP, voters tend to go with guys having career years on great teams that haven’t won before, even if there not the most deserving. Candidates this year include Celtics forward Paul Pierce and Spurs guard Tony Parker. But I am going to go with Rockets guard Tracy McGrady, who I think will stay healthy and be a monster all season.

For ROY, you already know I like Kevin Durant. Even though I’ve read he’s a bit banged up, I expect him to dominate once he gets to one hundred percent. Look for about 20 points and six boards a game.

In the East, I will be a homer and go with my beloved Bulls. I love the defense and I think that somebody will step up and score in the post. Out West, I have no reason to believe it won’t be the Spurs. It’s going be a tough battle on both coasts, but right now, its Chicago and San Antonio for the Finals, with (unfortunately) the Spurs taking title number five back to the Alamo. (Though, note, the Spurs have never won championships back-to-back years.)