Showdown in the desert

I was going to write a long, fully developed MLB playoff preview, where I broke down each series and gave you the teams I thought would advance. But honestly, I’m too tired from going to yesterday’s Cubs rally, followed by class and homework, then staying up late to watch the final five of the Padres-Rockies thirteen inning play-in game (And then the post-game conversations with friends to debate the crazy ending). So instead I will quickly tell you who I like in three of the four series’ and then explain why I like the Cubs chances against Arizona. (No, I’m not going to make a prediction on that series. There’s no way I can look at it rationally.)

American League:
Yankees over Indians in four---This is the year that A-Rod finally comes through in October.
Red Sox over Angels in five--- Something’s not right about that Boston squad, but the Angels are too banged up.

National League:
Phillies over Rockies in five--- Both teams had amazing comebacks, but I think Colorado’s just going to be too tired.


Three reasons why I like the Cubs to beat the Diamondbacks:

1---Hot bats
Once October begins, it really doesn’t matter what a team accomplished in the regular season. For further proof of that, ask the 116-win Seattle Mariners of 2001 (Managed by Lou Piniella) who lost in the ALCS or the 83-win St. Louis Cardinals of last season, who went on to win the whole thing. But it does help to be hot at the end of the season, especially if the team is able to carry that into the playoffs. And nobody has been hotter recently than Alfonso Soriano. Over his last ten games, the Cubs leadoff hitter is hitting .395 (17 for 43), with six home runs and twelve RBI, and he set a franchise record by hitting homers to lead off the game twelve times this year. Right now, nobody in baseball is seeing the ball better, and that could play a huge impact in the Cubs’ success.

2---Home field advantage
Wait, you’re saying, I thought the D-Backs had home field? True, if the series goes all the way, three of the five games will be in Phoenix. But is that really an advantage for the D-Backs? Arizona finished twentieth out of thirty MLB teams this year in home attendance, averaging about 28,500 butts in the seats every night, which is 58.3 percent of their capacity. For comparison purposes, the Cubs averaged a bit over 40,000 fans a game at Wrigley Field, 97.7 percent of the way full. This placed them sixth in terms of average attendance, but considering Wrigley is one of the smallest parks in baseball, that’s pretty good. (For further proof of that, the Cubs were second in percentage of seats filled, trailing only the Red Sox, who also play in an old, small ballpark.) Take into account also that the North Siders led the National League in road attendance (Third overall, after the Yankees and Red Sox), and I’ll put some money that there will be a good amount of Cubby Blue Wednesday and Thursday night’s for games one and two. Add the fact the Cubs have had spring training in the Phoenix area for over 50 years and I’d say the D-Backs don’t really have any advantage at all.

1---Personal experience
OK, this may sound ridiculous to many of you, but I truly believe that this is real. The Cubs will defeat the D-Backs, and I know this because history says my favorite teams don’t lose when something involving the state of Arizona. Just look at the facts:

NBA---My first ever clear memory in life, and I’m not making this up, is John Paxson’s three pointer in game six of the 1993 NBA Finals.. I would argue that it’s a good sign when the first thing in my mental video library took place in the same city as the Cubs playoff series.

NFL---Last October, Bears 24 Cardinals 23, in Arizona. Two defensive touchdowns, a Devin Hester kickoff return TD and a HUGE field goal block with time expiring made this the non-playoff game to remember in the Bears Super Bowl run of 2006. Plus it was followed up by the classic Dennis Green rant. Yeah Denny, this year the Cubs are who we thought they were. Hopefully we can crown their ass.

College Football---Whenever a team you follow closely wins a championship, everything related to that victory becomes special. Therefore after last season’s Florida Gators national title over Ohio State, Glendale, Arizona became a special place in my heart. (Same stadium as the Bears victory) I expect the good luck to transfer to the Cubs.

College Basketball---Illinois 90 Arizona 89, March 26, 2005. The Miracle at Rosemont. The Shot. Probably the most amazing sporting event I have ever witnessed. Fifteen point comeback in four minutes. Give me chills every time I see a clip from it. If nothing else, it gives me as a Cubs fan faith that any type of comeback is possible.




I’ll be posting NFL picks later this week, hopefully with some random thoughts on Cubs victories in games one and two.

GO CUBS GO