2008-09 NBA Preview: Part I-The West

I’ve been anticipating this year’s NBA season more than previous years for a few reasons. One, the Bulls have an actual exciting player now, somebody that makes you watch even if the game isn’t interesting. Two, there are so many great players in the prime of their career’s right now, nearly every team has a must-see guy. And three, the way my baseball season ended, I’ve just been looking forward to focusing on something new.

But before I get into the actual preview (Western Conference today, East tomorrow), let me brag for a bit and go over some of last season’s picks. While I was wrong on a few things (I guaranteed the NBA champ would come out of the West, I said the Bulls would win the East, and I believed Boston would be overrated come playoff time…whoops), I had my fair share of success stories. First, I said the breakout team of the year would be the New Orleans Hornets. Sure enough, the squad that went 39-43 in 2006-07 went 56-26 last year and was one game away from the Western Finals. Then I correctly predicted that the Miami Heat, Southeast Division winners in 2007, would miss the playoffs in ’08. I never would have imagined they’d be the worst team in the league and would wind up trading Shaq, but I did foresee their demise. And for the league’s biggest surprise, I went with the Lakers, who shocked everybody (but me) by going all the way to the NBA Finals.

So what do I have planned for this year? Instead of asking 10 key questions again, I figured I could devote a few sentences to each team. Here are my Western Conference rankings, along something I know and something I want to know about each team.

1- LA Lakers
What I know: That Kobe Bryant is the best player alive, that Phil Jackson is still a great coach even though the Finals proved otherwise and that with a healthy Pau Gasol/Andrew Bynum duo, the Lakers have the best starting five in the NBA.
What I want to know: How will all these pieces fit into place? I’m not big on any comparisons of anybody to Michael Jordan, but the facts are, MJ never played with a big man as good as Gasol or Bynum his entire career. Yet Jordan still won six titles. Can Kobe realize he doesn’t have to make every big play for the Lakers like he has in year’s past? And can those three players, along with Lamar Odom, share the rock on offense and still play consistent D? If the answers are “yes” to both, the Lakers should win the NBA Title.

2- Houston
What I know: That Yao Ming is always hurt, that Ron Artest is crazy and that Tracy McGrady STILL has never made it out of the first round of the playoffs.
What I want to know: Can any of those three things above change? Actually, the first two need to change in order for the third to. If T-Mac is on his own come May again, the Rockets will be bounced. But if Yao and Artest both play at their talent-level, and Houston gets good contributions from role players like Luis Scola, Rafer Alston Luther Head, Carly Landry and Shan Battier, they could easily take down any squad in a best of seven.

3- New Orleans
What I know: That Chris Paul is the best point guard on the face of the Earth.
What I want to know: If the Hornets can take the next step or will this be another version of the 1990’s Sonics? (Exciting team, fun to watch, no championships. The Suns and Mavs of the 2000’s also apply) CP-3 is amazing, David West, Peja and Tyson Chandler are all above-average, and they have some nice role players. But is this a team built for the playoffs? Can they win if Paul doesn’t put up 25 and 12? It remains to be seen.

4- Utah
What I know: That the Jazz have all the elements of a championship team.
What I want to know: Is this the exact same team the Bulls beat in the Finals in '97 and '98? Both Jazz squads, past and present, have a great point guard, great power forward, nice role players and Jerry Sloan on the bench. The thing they both missed though was a lockdown defender, someone who could contain the Michael Jordan's or Kobe Bryant’s. AK-47 is not that guy, nor is Ronnie Brewer. Still, Utah has the look of a title contender.

5- San Antonio
What I know: That Duncan, Manu and Mr. Longoria will cruise until February, then turn it on and become the team nobody wants to face in the post-season.
What I want to know: Who is the best player on this team? All three of the stars can make fans shrug their shoulders in disbelief, and together, they are nearly unstoppable. The problem lately has been though that they haven’t all been 100% at the same time. Still, everybody knows the Spurs are talented, experienced and definitely crafty enough to be the last ones standing come June.

6- Portland
What I know: That the Blazers have the best collection of young talent in the NBA right now, and if they can stay together, they could be the next league dynasty.
What I want to know: Can Greg Oden make the impact everybody is projecting? I’ve heard everything from ‘The next Bill Russell’ to ‘Alonzo Mourning with a sense of humor’ (OK, that last one was by my buddy Marc). Still, people are asking a lot of a guy who hasn’t played a meaningful game since the 2006 NCAA Title game versus Florida. If Oden is as good this year as he was in that game (25 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks), Portland will be a blast to watch. If he’s not, they could be in trouble in a loaded Western Conference.

7- Dallas
What I know: That for the past decade, since MJ retired, Jason Kidd has been my favorite NBA player.
What I want to know: What is this team’s identity? Are they going to be the run and gun team they were the past five season’s with Steve Nash, Jason Terry and Devin Harris? Will they play pick and pop with J-Kidd and Drik, like they tried to do at the end of last year? A mix of both? Who knows. On paper, I like Dallas’ squad, and the hiring of coach Rick Carlisle was a good one. But the Mavs are getting up their in age and if they are ever going to win it all, this has to be the year. (By the way, who are we kidding? Everybody knows they should have won in 2006 if D-Wade and the refs hadn’t teamed for the tag-team.)

8- LA Clippers
What I know: That no team in the NBA had more bizarre off-season than the Clips.
What I want to know: How will all the pieces fit into place? Adding Baron Davis and Marcus Camby helps, but is it better than losing Elton Brand and Corey Maggette? Where does rookie Eric “F*@king” Gordon play? And can the new guys stay healthy? I like this squad on paper, but lets just say I’m not too confident that my surprise playoff pick will come through.

9- Denver
What I know: That this team can score in bunches but couldn’t slow down my fifth-grade Dawes Wildcats squad.
What I want to know: How Denver could enter 2008 without making any defensive upgrades? Since joining Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony in January of 2006, the Nuggets have made the playoffs twice, yet have never come close to winning a single post-season series. Why> Because with the way this team plays, it should be called Enver. Unless they can score 135 a game, I don’t see them making it to the playoffs again.

10- Phoenix
What I know: That over the past five years, the Suns have been the most exciting team in the league, but then in the middle of last year, decided to end that by trading for The Big Cactus.
What want to know: Will they keep running or will the addition of Shaq and the departure of coach Mike D’Antoni slow them down? I’m banking on the latter, which is why this team is out of the playoffs. Amare Stodumire is a beast, and the trio of Nash, Shaq and Grant Hill was good about four years ago. They really need some depth to give those four players mentioned some rest.

11- Golden State
What I know: That not a lot went right for the Warriors over the summer.
What I want to know: Is there actually a plan on the Bay? After losing Baron Davis in free agency, failing to sign Elton Brand and losing star guard Monta Ellis for a month-and-a-half due to a moped accident, it doesn’t look good for the team that a year ago was one of the best ever to miss the playoffs. Signing Cory Maggette adds scoring, which is the last thing G.S. needs more of. I must say though, I’m excited to see if Doc Nelson plays youngsters Brandon Wright and Anthony Randolph. They are young and raw, but both guys have some serious skills.

12- Sacramento
What I know: That Bill Simmons is right: Kevin Martin is Mitch Ritchmond 2.0
What I want to know: Who the hell is on this team besides Martin? According to SI, the rest of Sac-Town’s starting five includes former Bulls big man Brad Miller, below-average center Mikki Moore, somebody named John Salamons and the shoot-first point guard, Beno Udrih. That puts a lot of pressure on the young 2-guard who averaged nearly 24 points a game last year. Look for Kings highlights to be buried on SportsCenter a lot this year.

13- Memphis
What I know: That the Grizzlies could contend in the ACC with better coaching.
What I want to know: Does Memphis realize that this isn’t And-1 Streetball but instead the NBA? Mike Conley, OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies projected starting five, all are tremendously athletic and good in one-on-one situations. None of them though would be starting right now for a good team, because they all have one giant flaw: a lack of defense. Looks like another year that Memphis fans will have to watch their college team if they want good hoops.

14- Minnesota
What I know: That my friends in the North that have to watch this team 82 times are in for a loooooong season.
What I want to know: How will big men Kevin Love and Al Jefferson work together in the post? Big Al is a certified beast, posting 21 points and 11 boards last year for a last-place team. Love isn’t too bad himself, putting up 18 and 11 last season at UCLA. Together they could be a nice one two punch down low, as long as they don’t get in each others way.

15- Oklahoma City
What I know: That in three years or less, Kevin Durant will be one of the three best scorers in the NBA.
What I want to know: Is there anybody else on this team besides Durant worth watching? I liked the draft pick of Russell Westbrook, but this team still has no size and no defense. Also, could they have come up with a worse name than Thunder? It honestly sounds like an Arena Football team.



Coming Tuesday: The East, along with awards and Finals picks