Friday, October 24, 2008

Those three little letters

No three letters in the English alphabet cause more frustration and anger from Americans when connected than BCS. (GOP is a close second) Now a decade old, the Bowl Championship Series continues to be the standings used when determining the entrants in college football’s National Championship game. And just like every year, 2008 looks like it will be a BCS mess.

(To inform those who don’t know, the BCS is formulated by a poll nobody takes seriously (the USA Today coaches poll), a poll nobody has ever heard of (the Harris poll) and an average from a collection of polls nobody understands (the computer polls). Glad we cleared that up.)

As of right now, there are three teams looking to fill two BCS championship game spots: Top-ranked Texas, number two Alabama and Penn State, who’s ranked third. Obviously if two of them finish un-beaten and the third loses, the BCS is free from a disaster and America will be subjected to a great title game. But if all three go undefeated, or two of them lose before the season ends, then we’re in for complete chaos. Let’s run down the scenarios.

Scenario 1: Texas, Alabama and Penn St. all go un-beaten
Outcome: The ‘Horns and Tide would play in Miami on January 8, while JoeGrandPa’s crew would play in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. Why? Because the Big XII and SEC are far and away the best leagues in America, while the Big Ten is having a down year. For Texas to run the table, they’ll have beaten Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and the Big XII North champ. For ‘Bama, they’ll have taken down Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn and the SEC East champ. Penn State’s biggest wins will be at Ohio State (impressive), home vs. Michigan State (so-so) and home vs. Illinois (not-so-great). Advantage Texas and Alabama.
Outrage Level: Not very high outside of western Pennsylvania

Scenario 2: Two of the top three go un-beaten
Outcome: Those two play in the National Title game, the third goes to a different bowl game.
Outrage: Only from idiots

Scenario 3: One of the top three go un-beaten
Outcome: Complete chaos. Obviously that one team makes it to Miami. Their opponent though is still to be determined. Assuming Penn State is that one team, because they have the easiest road, the one-loss champs from the Big XII and SEC will both have valid arguments to be in the title game; so will USC (assuming they run the table), who will be on an eight game winning-streak by that point. There’s even a shot that the runner’s up from some leagues could only have a one in their loss column when the year ends. And if Penn State does lose, most likely this Saturday to Ohio State, then it could happen that OSU, PSU and USC would all be 11-1. The Lions loss was against to the Buckeyes, the Buckeyes loss coming versus the Trojans and the Trojans loss coming to Oregon State (who got blown out by Penn State). How do you rank those three then? Oh yeah, and then there are the teams from outside the BCS (Utah and Boise St.) who will claim they deserve a shot if they go 12-0.
Outrage: Everyone will have something to say, and if the last two year’s are any indication, those people will be loud. Each fan base that thinks they deserve a trip to South Florida will be all over ESPN and the web, complaining about how the media is biased against them and how their record is better than those in the actual game. Also, if the last two year’s are any indication, these loud people will be wrong. (See: Michigan in 2006, Georgia in 2007)

Scenario 4: Everybody has (at least) one loss
Outcome: Now we have some real trouble. Right now, here are the team’s that have at least a small shot at making the national title game: Texas, Alabama, Penn St., Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Ohio State, LSU, and Georgia. That’s 11 teams from four conferences. We already know Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State all can’t finish win zero or one losses, since they all play each other. Still it could happen that Texas goes 13-0 (with the Big XII title game) and Oklahoma finishes11-1 with a loss to the ‘Horns. In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Penn State play a de-facto title game on Saturday, with the winner heading at least to the Rose Bowl. Then there’s the SEC, with Alabama, Georgia, Florida and LSU. The ‘Dawgs and Tigers play on Saturday, then Georgia plays Florida the next week, while LSU hosts ‘Bama on November 8. The two winners of these round robins play in the SEC title game in December. It’s unlikely, but there’s still a chance that as many as two teams could finish with zero or one loss. (For example, the Crimson Tide could finish 12-0 heading into the title game and Florida could be 11-1. If the Gators win that matchup, both teams would be 12-1 and have a legit argument for the National Title.) USC is on its own on the West Coast, having probably the nation’s most dangerous all-around team but with no way to prove it since the Pac-10 is incredibly weak.

So what will happen? And what about the outrage? To be honest, I have no clue. Thankfully for America and the BCS, there is plenty of football left to go. A year ago, nobody could have imagined that Ohio State would lose at home to Illinois and Arkansas would shock LSU in Death Valley. Even crazier, nobody saw Missouri and West Virginia losing on the same night to put those previously defeated teams back in the BCS championship. LSU won the Title with two losses, while the only two schools in the NCAA with one loss, Hawaii and Kansas, both were complete after thoughts. The only certainty this year is that the BCS will make at least some part of the country wildly upset every weekend.


Week 8 NFL picks

Tampa Bay at Dallas

Washington at Detroit

Buffalo at Miami

St.. Louis at New England

San Diego vs. New Orleans in London, England

Kansas City at New York Jets

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Arizona at Carolina

Oakland at Baltimore

Cleveland at Jacksonville

Cincinnati at Houston

New York Giants at Pittsburgh

Seattle at San Francisco

Indianapolis at Tennessee


Last Week: 9-5
Season to Date: 54-48

No comments: