Close ones define Bears

Bears-Bengals this Sunday. Also known as the Benson Bowl. Should be known as the Heart Attack Bowl.

The Bears have played five games, which have been decided by 6, 3, 6, 24 and 7 points. Take away the Lions game, and the Bears average result has been less than a six points.

The Bengals have played six games, which have been decided by 5, 7, 3, 3, 3 and 11 points. Take away last week’s game versus the Texans, and the Bengals are averaging final scores that are just over four points.

So you know that this Sunday’s game is going to come down to the end. It’s going to be up to either Jay Cutler and the offense or Lance Briggs and the defense to come up with the big play if the Bears are going to win. Last week’s meltdown in Atlanta was devastating for a number of reasons, but the main one was the Bears horrible execution in the fourth quarter. That can’t happen again if the Bears are going to win in Cincinnati.

As stressful as these games are, Bears fans should be used to it. In 2008, the Bears had 10 games decided by a touchdown or less. Their point differential that season was +25, which was 14 points fewer than the Packers, who won three fewer games than the Bears did. This year, through the first five games, they're on that same pace, at +20, while Green Bay again is at +39.

Close games are usually decided by three keys: coaching, turnovers and penalties. Though I've criticized him in the past, I think Lovie Smith is doing a good job this year at managing the defense. Considering there is nobody on the 53-man roster that I would valid NFL safety and the linebacking corps is more beat up that the Bluesmobile at the end of Jake and Elwood's adventure, it's difficult for me to hate on Smith's performance as the team's new defensive coordinator. My hope is that new defensive end Gaines Adams provides the consistent pass rush the team has lacked the last few weeks.

At -1 differential, it would seem that turnovers have been a minor deal, not a HUGE one. Wrong. While eight takeaways compared to nine giveaways isn't horrible, it has been the location of these turnovers. Too often the fumbles or picks have come in the red zone, such as last week's multiple fumbles by Matt Forte inside the five and Cutler's pick when the Bears were inside field goal range. Both losses, to Green Bay week 1 and Atlanta last Sunday, can be directly tied to giving the ball away when it mattered most.

And then the penalties. Against Green Bay, it was the risk of having 12 men on the field that forced a botched punt, leading to Packer points. Against Atlanta, the Bears did give Atlanta a first down because of 12 men on the field, and also moved a 4th-and-1 back to a 4th-and-6 on the final drive thanks to Orlando Pace's false start. Overall, the team only has 31 penalties for 266 yards, which both rank in the bottom third of the league. But like the turnovers, its been when and where they take place, not how many of them there are.

So expect another nail biter in Southern Ohio this Sunday. The Bengals don't blow people out, instead opting for physical games that are decided in the final minutes. The Bears don't blow people out, instead opting for games that are decided by turnovers and penalties. Which will prevail? See who I like in my Week 7 picks, winners in bold.

Green Bay at Cleveland

San Diego at Kansas City

Indianapolis at St. Louis

Minnesota at Pittsburgh

New England at Tampa Bay (in London)

San Francisco at Houston

New York Jets at Oakland

Buffalo at Carolina

Chicago at Cincinnati

Atlanta at Dallas

New Orleans at Miami

Arizona at New York Giants

Philadelphia at Washington

Last Week: 8-6
Season to Date: 63-27