Since 2001, there have only been two Super Bowls that I would consider 'boring'. The Bucs-Raiders game was a snoozer from the start, mainly because Tampa knew what Oakland was doing on offense and there was nothing competitive for the entire 60 minutes. And the Steelers-Seahawks game was a downer, mainly because the refs took too much control of the action. Other than that, the season's final game have ranged from good (Bears-Colts) to great (Patriots-Panthers) to all-time classic (Steelers-Cardinals).
That has me encouraged. I wrote two weeks ago that conference championship games are not as close as they should be. Super Bowls are the opposite. At one point, football was the afterthought to the commercials and hype. Now everybody knows that the game will be still close in the fourth quarter. Add in two explosive offenses, and this Sunday is everything a championship game is supposed to be.
Now there's no doubt the American public sides with the Saints. People love the underdog, and it's hard to find a better underdog than one that was practically drowned by its own government five years ago. To think about what took place during Hurricane Katrina and what the people of New Orleans had to endure, it truly was the lowest of the lows. So it's only fair to see them reach the highest of the highs. Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Pierre Thomas and the rest of the Saints offense can light up a scoreboard like few other groups in NFL history, and the N.O. defense has shown it's talented enough to force turnovers and make stops when needed.
That being said, I'm taking the Colts and not thinking twice about it. I made the mistake of picking Indy to lose both against the Ravens and Jets...how'd that turn out for me? Even if Dwight Freeney doesn't play, it's going to impossible for the Saints to contain Peyton Manning and Co. And while it's guaranteed that #18 will do something that will make jaws drop lower than the Bears' defensive coordinator standards, I see this game playing out a lot like Super Bowl XLI, when the Colts topped the Bears. The Saints defense, especially Darren Sharper, is going to try to limit the big plays. So watch for a lot of quick passes and draws, with Donald Brown taking the Domminic Rhodes role. It's too bad, because it would be cool to see New Orleans win one. But at least it should be a good game.
Colts 33, Saints 28
Showing posts with label NFL picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL picks. Show all posts
Friday, February 05, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Where's the drama?
I want to be excited for this Sunday's NFL games. Championship Sunday isn't a normal NFL weekend, but it's as close to normal we'll have for the next eight mounts. So savor it while it's here, right? I wish. Instead, the following six facts have me fearing the worst:
So then the question becomes, Which game will be the blowout? The NFC game features the conference's 1 and 2 seeds, meaning it's expected to be a close game. Then again, the road team in that matchup has struggled outside of their building for the past month. In the AFC, it's a 1 seed with a future Hall-of-Fame QB versus a 5 seed with a rookie under center, which has the makings of a lopsided score. But that game features two physical defenses, ones that will make sure nothing gets out of hand.
In the past, championship weekend has always been a bit anti-climactic. Until last year's game, which was a nine-point Pittsburgh victory, only three AFC championship games had been decided by ten points or less since 1999. Only one of those, the 2007 Colts-Patriots game, came down to the final minutes. The NFC title game has been a little better. Last year's Cardinals-Eagles game was exciting down the stretch, and 2008's Giants-Packers matchup was an OT thriller. But before that, mostly snoozefests. While the Super Bowl has had a lot of all-time classics over the past decade, surprisingly the championship games have not.
Here are my predictions:
Jets at Colts
To beat Indianapolis, a team has to run the ball to keep Peyton Manning off the field, while at the same time containing the Colts high-powered offense. The Jets ran the ball better than anybody all season and have a defense that stopped San Diego dead in their tracks a week ago. I smell an upset. New York also knows they can beat Indy, having done in just one month ago when Jim Caldwell rested his starters. With a big game from Thomas Jones, a smart game from Mark Sanchez and the NY defense somehow baiting Manning into throwing a costly pick, the upset smell is getting stronger. A team that played on Wild Card weekend has made it to the Super Bowl four consecutive years. Make it five. Jets 23, Colts 18
Vikings at Saints
Minnesota's offense looked damn good on Sunday versus the Cowboys. They scored 34 points, rolled up 323 yards and didn't turn the ball over once. All of that was upended by what the Saints did against Arizona. New Orleans had 45 points, 418 points and also were turnover-free. Point is, it's going to take a monster effort from Favre, Peterson and the rest of the Minnesota offense to win at the Superdome on Sunday. With that crowd noise and with the way Drew Brees can pick apart a defense like Billy Madison playing dodgeball against first graders, I find it hard to believe that Brad Childress can come up with a gameplan to stop them. Saints 35, Vikings 17
Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 170-94
- Jets 24, Bengals 14
- Cowboys 34, Eagles 14
- Ravens 33, Patriots 14
- Saints 45, Cardinals 14
- Colts 20, Ravens 3
- Vikings 34, Cowboys 3
So then the question becomes, Which game will be the blowout? The NFC game features the conference's 1 and 2 seeds, meaning it's expected to be a close game. Then again, the road team in that matchup has struggled outside of their building for the past month. In the AFC, it's a 1 seed with a future Hall-of-Fame QB versus a 5 seed with a rookie under center, which has the makings of a lopsided score. But that game features two physical defenses, ones that will make sure nothing gets out of hand.
In the past, championship weekend has always been a bit anti-climactic. Until last year's game, which was a nine-point Pittsburgh victory, only three AFC championship games had been decided by ten points or less since 1999. Only one of those, the 2007 Colts-Patriots game, came down to the final minutes. The NFC title game has been a little better. Last year's Cardinals-Eagles game was exciting down the stretch, and 2008's Giants-Packers matchup was an OT thriller. But before that, mostly snoozefests. While the Super Bowl has had a lot of all-time classics over the past decade, surprisingly the championship games have not.
Here are my predictions:
Jets at Colts
To beat Indianapolis, a team has to run the ball to keep Peyton Manning off the field, while at the same time containing the Colts high-powered offense. The Jets ran the ball better than anybody all season and have a defense that stopped San Diego dead in their tracks a week ago. I smell an upset. New York also knows they can beat Indy, having done in just one month ago when Jim Caldwell rested his starters. With a big game from Thomas Jones, a smart game from Mark Sanchez and the NY defense somehow baiting Manning into throwing a costly pick, the upset smell is getting stronger. A team that played on Wild Card weekend has made it to the Super Bowl four consecutive years. Make it five. Jets 23, Colts 18
Vikings at Saints
Minnesota's offense looked damn good on Sunday versus the Cowboys. They scored 34 points, rolled up 323 yards and didn't turn the ball over once. All of that was upended by what the Saints did against Arizona. New Orleans had 45 points, 418 points and also were turnover-free. Point is, it's going to take a monster effort from Favre, Peterson and the rest of the Minnesota offense to win at the Superdome on Sunday. With that crowd noise and with the way Drew Brees can pick apart a defense like Billy Madison playing dodgeball against first graders, I find it hard to believe that Brad Childress can come up with a gameplan to stop them. Saints 35, Vikings 17
Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 170-94
Friday, January 15, 2010
Go hard or go home
Best football weekend of the year, no question. The eight best teams, four great games, with everything on the line. Last weekend produced three snoozers and an instant classic, as well as a 2-2 record for me. This weekend will be better, in both departments. I think I have a good feel for all these games, though we all know anything can happen in the playoffs. Here's my divisional round breakdown, by day.
Saturday
Cardinals at Saints: Remember last week, when I promised that the Green Bay-Arizona game would be the highest scoring of the weekend? It ended up being the most points scored ever in a playoff game. Here's my bold statement for this week: Drew Brees will have 100 or more passing yards than Kurt Warner. Gutsy yes, but I just don't see Arizona doing it two weeks in a row. (Though Mr. Warner does seem to pay his best in the playoffs) Three losses in a row to end the regular season halted New Orleans' momentum, but I see them jumping out early and then holding on for a victory. Saints 42, Cardinals 28
Ravens at Colts: Last time these teams faced off in the playoffs, it was an all field goal battle. That was the old Ravens, with Steve McNair (RIP) at quarterback and no threats to take it to the house. These are the new Ravens, with Ray Rice at running back and recent experience of winning big playoff road games. Indianapolis comes into this game having had the last three weeks off, and I think it costs them. Peyton Manning is amazing and the Colts D isn't too shabby, but I'll take momentum over a team that will be spending the first half trying to recharge their batteries. Ravens 27, Colts 23
Sunday
Cowboys at Vikings: Once again, I will be doing a live chat during the game, so go to NFL Blog Blitz to check it out. (While you're there, read my post on why I hate the Vikings) This is the most intriguing game of the weekend, because there are so many subplots. America's Team vs. America's QB, which is also America's Most Hated Team vs. America's Most Hated QB. Two coaches who looked as if they just awoke from a decade-long comas. Two fan bases who believe their moment for glory is upon them. Two ferocious pass rushes, two dynamic running games, two quarterbacks who NEED this win. I like Dallas for a couple reasons. One, Adrian Peterson hasn't been the real AP for a while now, with seven straight games under 100 yards rushing. That limits what the Vikes can do and increases the chances that DeMarcus Ware will carve up Fave like John Madden's Turducken. Two, because I don't see how the Vikings limit Miles Austin and Jason Witten while also stopping the Cowboys draw play, which has been their best weapon. Felix Jones will break a big one on the Metrodome rug and Tony Romo does enough to not blow it. Cowboys 31, Vikings 27
Jets at Chargers: Could New York be for real? They looked like a squad built for the playoffs last week in Cincinnati, with a fast and physical defense complementing an efficient running game. But that was the Bengals, this is the Chargers. San Diego has a fast and physical defense of their own, plus an efficient running game and a dynamic passing attack. New York can keep it close for a while, and if it gets to the fourth quarter with the score within three points, anything can happen. But I see to much Rivers, Gates, LDT and co. Chargers 28, Jets 17
Last week: 2-2
Season to Date: 169-91
Saturday
Cardinals at Saints: Remember last week, when I promised that the Green Bay-Arizona game would be the highest scoring of the weekend? It ended up being the most points scored ever in a playoff game. Here's my bold statement for this week: Drew Brees will have 100 or more passing yards than Kurt Warner. Gutsy yes, but I just don't see Arizona doing it two weeks in a row. (Though Mr. Warner does seem to pay his best in the playoffs) Three losses in a row to end the regular season halted New Orleans' momentum, but I see them jumping out early and then holding on for a victory. Saints 42, Cardinals 28
Ravens at Colts: Last time these teams faced off in the playoffs, it was an all field goal battle. That was the old Ravens, with Steve McNair (RIP) at quarterback and no threats to take it to the house. These are the new Ravens, with Ray Rice at running back and recent experience of winning big playoff road games. Indianapolis comes into this game having had the last three weeks off, and I think it costs them. Peyton Manning is amazing and the Colts D isn't too shabby, but I'll take momentum over a team that will be spending the first half trying to recharge their batteries. Ravens 27, Colts 23
Sunday
Cowboys at Vikings: Once again, I will be doing a live chat during the game, so go to NFL Blog Blitz to check it out. (While you're there, read my post on why I hate the Vikings) This is the most intriguing game of the weekend, because there are so many subplots. America's Team vs. America's QB, which is also America's Most Hated Team vs. America's Most Hated QB. Two coaches who looked as if they just awoke from a decade-long comas. Two fan bases who believe their moment for glory is upon them. Two ferocious pass rushes, two dynamic running games, two quarterbacks who NEED this win. I like Dallas for a couple reasons. One, Adrian Peterson hasn't been the real AP for a while now, with seven straight games under 100 yards rushing. That limits what the Vikes can do and increases the chances that DeMarcus Ware will carve up Fave like John Madden's Turducken. Two, because I don't see how the Vikings limit Miles Austin and Jason Witten while also stopping the Cowboys draw play, which has been their best weapon. Felix Jones will break a big one on the Metrodome rug and Tony Romo does enough to not blow it. Cowboys 31, Vikings 27
Jets at Chargers: Could New York be for real? They looked like a squad built for the playoffs last week in Cincinnati, with a fast and physical defense complementing an efficient running game. But that was the Bengals, this is the Chargers. San Diego has a fast and physical defense of their own, plus an efficient running game and a dynamic passing attack. New York can keep it close for a while, and if it gets to the fourth quarter with the score within three points, anything can happen. But I see to much Rivers, Gates, LDT and co. Chargers 28, Jets 17
Last week: 2-2
Season to Date: 169-91
Friday, January 08, 2010
It's been a long time, I shouldn't of left you
Wow, it's been a while. Sorry about that.
So much stuff has happened in the past month, I feel obligated to discuss it. But where to start? Here are just some of the things that have taken place since I last posted here on the blog, in no chronological or importance order.
Bears beat Favre on Monday Night Football, Cubs trade Bradley to Seattle, Bulls try to fire coach but can't, Gators lose SEC Title, Bears keep Lovie but fire Turner, Colt McCoy almost cost Texas chances of playing for National Championship, Colts don't go for 16-0, Saints lose three straight, Gilbert Arenas packs heat, Ingram wins Heisman, Tiger story gets crazier, Dawson voted into Baseball HOF, Bulls begin to get healthy and play better, Urban Meyer retires, Urban Meyer reconsiders, Urban Meyer returns, NU plays thrilling Outback Bowl but comes up short, I got a full-time job with Sports Illustrated, Chris Johnson tops 2K yards, I graduated college, Chris Henry RIP, the decade ended, 'Bama tops Texas for National Title.
OK, so all but one of those items is true...you're on your own to determine which one. The point is, I missed a lot. But I can make it up to you. How? With some awesome NFL playoff picks.
Jets at Bengals
Saw most of this game last Sunday and, um, wait, what happened? Cincinnati had nothing to play for, the Jets had everything to gain and the game was a snoozer. Don't expect a repeat. If both Indy and Cinci hadn't shut it down early to save themselves for the playoffs, the Jets would be on vacation right now. Instead they take a rookie QB into the Queen City to face a rested Bengals team who is not only playing for their pride and city, but also a fallen teammate. The Thomas Jones vs. Cedric Benson running back matchup intrigues me, but that's basically a draw. What's not even is the rest of the offenses. Even though the New York D is playing great right now, I like the Bengals, and I like 'em big. Bengals 27-7
Eagles at Cowboys
First off a promotional plug - follow this game with me during a live chat on NFL Blog Blitz on Sat. night at 7 central. What will you find if you tune in? One hell of a game. Each of the past four seasons, a team that played on Wild Card weekend has made it to the Super Bowl. My pick this year is whoever wins this game. The Eagles have an explosive offense, a solid secondary and extensive big game experience. Dallas has the ability to pound away with a solid run game as well as throwing to Miles Austin and Jason Witten. All year I've been picking against the Cowboys in big games, but I think they finally deserve a shot. Cowboys 31-28
Ravens at Patriots
Tough game to figure out, especially because this is the only game of the weekend that didn't take place last weekend. Baltimore is solid, but I can't say Joe Flacco is trustworthy on the road. Tom Brady is obviously trustworthy, but without much support on the Patriots offense. I like the Ravens for one reason: Ray Rice. The former Rutgers star can run through and past the average New England defense, at least enough to give Flacco room to throw. It almost seem sacrilegious to pick against Brady, Belichick and the Pats, especially in N.E., but that's exactly what I'm doing. Ravens 24-18
Packers at Cardinals
My most confident prediction of the weekend is this: Green Bay-Arizona will be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Just look at all the talent on that side of the ball for both teams. That being said, I'm not very confident on who to pick. Green Bay has been playing great lately (kills me to say that), including a blowout a week ago in Arizona. The Cardinals haven't been right since defeating the Vikings in early December. But I basically said the same thing a year ago, and then Arizona was within one or two plays from winning the Super Bowl. Can history repeat itself? I'm saying no. Packers 35-30
Regular season record: 167-89
So much stuff has happened in the past month, I feel obligated to discuss it. But where to start? Here are just some of the things that have taken place since I last posted here on the blog, in no chronological or importance order.
Bears beat Favre on Monday Night Football, Cubs trade Bradley to Seattle, Bulls try to fire coach but can't, Gators lose SEC Title, Bears keep Lovie but fire Turner, Colt McCoy almost cost Texas chances of playing for National Championship, Colts don't go for 16-0, Saints lose three straight, Gilbert Arenas packs heat, Ingram wins Heisman, Tiger story gets crazier, Dawson voted into Baseball HOF, Bulls begin to get healthy and play better, Urban Meyer retires, Urban Meyer reconsiders, Urban Meyer returns, NU plays thrilling Outback Bowl but comes up short, I got a full-time job with Sports Illustrated, Chris Johnson tops 2K yards, I graduated college, Chris Henry RIP, the decade ended, 'Bama tops Texas for National Title.
OK, so all but one of those items is true...you're on your own to determine which one. The point is, I missed a lot. But I can make it up to you. How? With some awesome NFL playoff picks.
Jets at Bengals
Saw most of this game last Sunday and, um, wait, what happened? Cincinnati had nothing to play for, the Jets had everything to gain and the game was a snoozer. Don't expect a repeat. If both Indy and Cinci hadn't shut it down early to save themselves for the playoffs, the Jets would be on vacation right now. Instead they take a rookie QB into the Queen City to face a rested Bengals team who is not only playing for their pride and city, but also a fallen teammate. The Thomas Jones vs. Cedric Benson running back matchup intrigues me, but that's basically a draw. What's not even is the rest of the offenses. Even though the New York D is playing great right now, I like the Bengals, and I like 'em big. Bengals 27-7
Eagles at Cowboys
First off a promotional plug - follow this game with me during a live chat on NFL Blog Blitz on Sat. night at 7 central. What will you find if you tune in? One hell of a game. Each of the past four seasons, a team that played on Wild Card weekend has made it to the Super Bowl. My pick this year is whoever wins this game. The Eagles have an explosive offense, a solid secondary and extensive big game experience. Dallas has the ability to pound away with a solid run game as well as throwing to Miles Austin and Jason Witten. All year I've been picking against the Cowboys in big games, but I think they finally deserve a shot. Cowboys 31-28
Ravens at Patriots
Tough game to figure out, especially because this is the only game of the weekend that didn't take place last weekend. Baltimore is solid, but I can't say Joe Flacco is trustworthy on the road. Tom Brady is obviously trustworthy, but without much support on the Patriots offense. I like the Ravens for one reason: Ray Rice. The former Rutgers star can run through and past the average New England defense, at least enough to give Flacco room to throw. It almost seem sacrilegious to pick against Brady, Belichick and the Pats, especially in N.E., but that's exactly what I'm doing. Ravens 24-18
Packers at Cardinals
My most confident prediction of the weekend is this: Green Bay-Arizona will be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Just look at all the talent on that side of the ball for both teams. That being said, I'm not very confident on who to pick. Green Bay has been playing great lately (kills me to say that), including a blowout a week ago in Arizona. The Cardinals haven't been right since defeating the Vikings in early December. But I basically said the same thing a year ago, and then Arizona was within one or two plays from winning the Super Bowl. Can history repeat itself? I'm saying no. Packers 35-30
Regular season record: 167-89
Friday, December 04, 2009
All Q, No A
I haven't blogged for a while, due to school, work, looking for work once I'm done with school, etc. All this time without writing though has put a lot on my mind. So to honor that, here are 10 questions that have been rattling around my skull the last few weeks. Please comment if you have any answers, though I admit that there are a few rhetorical ones. (And not all 10 are sports related)
- Do the Bears really have to play the final five games of the season? We already know what they are, a team not talented enough to beat good teams with their offense or their defense. Lets just fast forward to the playoffs so that I and the rest of Chicago don't have to continue to suffer.
- Why does McDonalds stop selling breakfast at 10:30 a.m.? Maybe on weekdays it makes sense, but on Saturdays and Sundays, they should extend it until noon. I have McDonalds breakfast maybe twice a year, and it's because the food is insanely unhealthy and it's impossible for me to wake up, get organized and go to Mickey D's before 10:30 in the morning.
- Is Carlos Dunlap really that stupid? Getting busted for a DUI at 3 a.m. the week before the biggest college football game of the year. Dunlap may have an insane amount of talent and a high IQ on the field, but he seems to lack some intelligence off it.
- Can Tebow do it again? I'm biased, but that won't stop me from saying yes. The Gators D, even without Dunlap, will hold down 'Bama enough for Tebow and whichever skill players show up to put up enough points to give Florida their second consecutive SEC Championship. My pick: Florida 27, Alabama 20
- Does the most famous athlete in the world really have to start off a voicemail to his mistress, one he has texted about 300 times, with the phrase, "Hi, this is Tiger..."? Do that and you deserve to be caught.
- Is there a funnier show out there than 'Curb Your Enthusiasm'? If so, I'd love to see it. Larry David may go down as the smartest/funniest/most influential person in television during my lifetime.
- LeBron, DWade, Chris Bosh and I all want to know, is it the summer of 2010 yet?
- Instead of making another album full of crazy sex songs, would it be possible for R. Kelly to just focus on making more chapters for 'Trapped in the Closet'? That would put a smile on my face for weeks.
- How much more time until the Bears can fire Lovie, Jerry, Ron, Babich, the entire defensive line, most of the offensive line and anybody else associated with this horrible season? Like the President said, it's time for change.
- Am I picking the Buffalo (already lost), Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Carolina, Houston, San Diego, New York Giants, Seattle, Minnesota and Baltimore to win this weekend? This one I actually have a response to: Yes. (Season to date record: 119-58)
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Three's Company
Thoughts on my three teams as we approach Turkey Day.
Bears: Despite what the newspapers or bloggers or radio talk show idiots or anybody says, it's still waaaaay too early to grade the Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton trade that took place in April. First off, this trade was about long-term success, not the first 10 games of 2009. Just like you don't evaluate a movie based on its opening scene, you can't judge a trade by such a small sample, especially a trade that was made for the long haul. Second, people need to realize what Cutler and Orton are each working with. Not only do the Broncos have better skill position players than the Bears, but their offensive line is far superior. And while a quarterback is supposed to be like a point guard and make everybody around him better, it is impossible when the QB can't even stand up for longer than a second. Just ask Aaron Rodgers. Yes the trade looks bad now, and it seems that Cutler will never throw a TD pass in the red zone. But be patient; things always turn out well for Bears quarterbacks. (Slamming head into wall)
Bulls: If the Bulls get Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh, it made sense. But I'll say it again for the 100th or so time: Letting Ben Gordon leave hurts the team more than people realize. Not only was he a clutch shooter who wanted the ball at the end of games, but he was a player who teams had to watch and defend the entire 48 minutes. This season Derrick Rose has had less room to drive the lane, Brad Miller can't create plays from the high post and John Salmons can't shoot his fallaway from 18-feet (oh wait, yes he can). Gordon provided an element that the team sorely lacks this year, a reason the Bulls are 28th out 30 in both 3-pointers made a game and 3-point percentage.
Cubs: It's that time of year again. It's getting cold (boo), eggnog is back in stores (yay) and the Cubs are figuring out who they need to sign (groan). With new owner Tom Rickets still feeling things out, it's unlikely the team will make a big-time free agent signing in the mold of Soriano or Fukudome. Instead, I expect a lot of small moves and maybe a trade or two. Dealing Milton Bradley is step one, but here's what I want to see: A real center fielder, a second baseman, a few relief pitchers who can go in the seventh and eighth innings and some speed. One rumor has them looking at Detroit Tigers (and Chicago native) center fielder Curtis Granderson, which would be amazing. But these are the Cubs were talking about, so I fully expect there to be several holes in the lineup and pitching staff when spring training begins in February.
NFL Winners for Week 11: Carolina (already lost), Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Arizona, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, Philadelphia, Tennessee
Bears: Despite what the newspapers or bloggers or radio talk show idiots or anybody says, it's still waaaaay too early to grade the Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton trade that took place in April. First off, this trade was about long-term success, not the first 10 games of 2009. Just like you don't evaluate a movie based on its opening scene, you can't judge a trade by such a small sample, especially a trade that was made for the long haul. Second, people need to realize what Cutler and Orton are each working with. Not only do the Broncos have better skill position players than the Bears, but their offensive line is far superior. And while a quarterback is supposed to be like a point guard and make everybody around him better, it is impossible when the QB can't even stand up for longer than a second. Just ask Aaron Rodgers. Yes the trade looks bad now, and it seems that Cutler will never throw a TD pass in the red zone. But be patient; things always turn out well for Bears quarterbacks. (Slamming head into wall)
Bulls: If the Bulls get Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh, it made sense. But I'll say it again for the 100th or so time: Letting Ben Gordon leave hurts the team more than people realize. Not only was he a clutch shooter who wanted the ball at the end of games, but he was a player who teams had to watch and defend the entire 48 minutes. This season Derrick Rose has had less room to drive the lane, Brad Miller can't create plays from the high post and John Salmons can't shoot his fallaway from 18-feet (oh wait, yes he can). Gordon provided an element that the team sorely lacks this year, a reason the Bulls are 28th out 30 in both 3-pointers made a game and 3-point percentage.
Cubs: It's that time of year again. It's getting cold (boo), eggnog is back in stores (yay) and the Cubs are figuring out who they need to sign (groan). With new owner Tom Rickets still feeling things out, it's unlikely the team will make a big-time free agent signing in the mold of Soriano or Fukudome. Instead, I expect a lot of small moves and maybe a trade or two. Dealing Milton Bradley is step one, but here's what I want to see: A real center fielder, a second baseman, a few relief pitchers who can go in the seventh and eighth innings and some speed. One rumor has them looking at Detroit Tigers (and Chicago native) center fielder Curtis Granderson, which would be amazing. But these are the Cubs were talking about, so I fully expect there to be several holes in the lineup and pitching staff when spring training begins in February.
NFL Winners for Week 11: Carolina (already lost), Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Arizona, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, Philadelphia, Tennessee
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Gut check game
I had planned on posting a mid-season evaluation of the Bears today, along with my selection of tonight's highly-important game against the 49ers. But annoying distractions like school and work seem to have gotten in the way, so instead, you'll have to settle for this mini-preview today and hopefully something more in-depth tomorrow.
When the NFL schedule was initially released back in April, this game caught a lot of people's attention. Not only because it was a mid-week game, which tends to be noteworthy, but also because of the opponent. San Francisco is coached by Samurai Mike Singletary (he stops 'em cold, part of the defense, big and bold), a Hall-of-Fame player and a legend in Chicago. He's trying to build the Niners the same way as Lovie Smith is trying build the Bears - to be a tough, hard-nosed team. Considering San Fran has lost four straight games and the Bears have been embarrassed two of the past three weeks, it seems to be working great.
Of course some team has to win this game. I'm taking the 49ers for two reasons. One, because they have Frank Gore and the Bears run defense has been dreadful since the bye week. Two, because they are at home and didn't have to fly across the country on a short week. That's the only thing that separates these two teams. Switch the home field and I take the Bears. Sit 'The Inconvenient Truth' and I take the Bears.
So I'll say 27-20 49ers in a game that won't be as ugly as last Sunday was...I promise. The Bears have to show some heart one of these weeks, and I think this is it.
When the NFL schedule was initially released back in April, this game caught a lot of people's attention. Not only because it was a mid-week game, which tends to be noteworthy, but also because of the opponent. San Francisco is coached by Samurai Mike Singletary (he stops 'em cold, part of the defense, big and bold), a Hall-of-Fame player and a legend in Chicago. He's trying to build the Niners the same way as Lovie Smith is trying build the Bears - to be a tough, hard-nosed team. Considering San Fran has lost four straight games and the Bears have been embarrassed two of the past three weeks, it seems to be working great.
Of course some team has to win this game. I'm taking the 49ers for two reasons. One, because they have Frank Gore and the Bears run defense has been dreadful since the bye week. Two, because they are at home and didn't have to fly across the country on a short week. That's the only thing that separates these two teams. Switch the home field and I take the Bears. Sit 'The Inconvenient Truth' and I take the Bears.
So I'll say 27-20 49ers in a game that won't be as ugly as last Sunday was...I promise. The Bears have to show some heart one of these weeks, and I think this is it.
Friday, November 06, 2009
November 4 will define Bears
Sunday starts a tough four-game stretch for the Bears: home versus defending NFC Champ Arizona, at San Francisco on a Thursday night, home versus the other team in last January’s NFC Championship game, Philadelphia, on a Sunday night, and then a trip up to the Metrodome to face the first place Vikings. Four games, four challenges, but five possible outcomes for the Bears.
If the team runs the table (highly unlikely), they will certainly make the playoffs and may even win the NFC North. A 5-0 November, including last Sunday’s win versus Cleveland, would quiet all the Jay Cutler trade doubters…at least until the first loss in December. And there’s no doubt that the entire coaching staff would return next season, bar an epic collapse during the season’s final weeks.
Going 3-1 during the stretch would be an accomplishment as well. Considering the two thought-to-be tough stretches of the schedule at the start of the year were the first three games (at Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Seattle, which the Bears went 2-1) and this month, it would look good for Cutler and coach Lovie Smith’s resume that they navigated through each of them successfully. Assuming the Bears handle their business in December/January (vs. St. Louis, vs. Green Bay, at Baltimore, vs. Minnesota on Monday night and at Detroit, the team would play in the post-season.
I’d argue the most probable scenario is a 2-2 record, which would leave the Bears exactly where they stand right now - in the middle of the pack in the NFC. Considering of their three losses, two have come on nationally-telivised night games, losses to the 49ers and Eagles seem likely. That would mean though that the Bears beat Minnesota on November 29, which would make more than a couple of people smile for a variety of reasons. Like with the previous route, a 2-2 record would mean the December stretch is given extra importance.
A 1-3 record and the season’s likely over. It seems highly unlikely that the Bears could enter December at 5-6 and make the playoffs. Unless the one win is against the Vikings, combined with more Minnesota losses and an impressive end of season run, it will mark three consecutive playoff-less seasons following the Super Bowl appearance in 2007. So far, the common theme in all the losses for the Bears this season has been turnovers. If that continues, major questions will arise about why the Cutler trade was made in the first place.
Finally, there is 0-4. Lovie Smith, Ron Turner and the rest of the coaching staff is toast. So is much of the defense, which is getting up there in age. GM Jerry Angelo could be updating his resume as well if anybody in the McCaskey family is even paying attention at this point. Major criticism will land at the feet of Cutler, Matt Forte and all the other under-performers in 2009, especially since the Bears don’t have a draft pick in the first two rounds in next April’s draft.
So how’s it going to go? Not to seem predictable, but I’m guessing based on how the season has gone, 2-2 seems most likely. With the exception of the Cincinnati game, the Bears seem to play their opponents well. Against good teams - Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta - they play well and the game goes down to the wire. Against bad teams - Detroit, Cleveland - they don’t play particularly well, but still are able to get the job done. Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all good or really good teams, ones that will require the Bears to play as well as they have all season. I still say the December/January schedule sets up well, with home games against division rivals as well as contents with the pathetic Rams and Lions. Going 2-2 in November may not be preferable, but it doesn’t kill the Bears season.
Now of course are my Week 9 picks, with winners in bold.
Washington at Atlanta
Arizona at Chicago
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Houston at Indianapolis
Miami at New England
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Kansas City at Jacksonville
Carolina at New Orleans
Detroit at Seattle
San Diego at New York Giants
Tennessee at San Francisco
Dallas at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh at Denver
Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 76-40
If the team runs the table (highly unlikely), they will certainly make the playoffs and may even win the NFC North. A 5-0 November, including last Sunday’s win versus Cleveland, would quiet all the Jay Cutler trade doubters…at least until the first loss in December. And there’s no doubt that the entire coaching staff would return next season, bar an epic collapse during the season’s final weeks.
Going 3-1 during the stretch would be an accomplishment as well. Considering the two thought-to-be tough stretches of the schedule at the start of the year were the first three games (at Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Seattle, which the Bears went 2-1) and this month, it would look good for Cutler and coach Lovie Smith’s resume that they navigated through each of them successfully. Assuming the Bears handle their business in December/January (vs. St. Louis, vs. Green Bay, at Baltimore, vs. Minnesota on Monday night and at Detroit, the team would play in the post-season.
I’d argue the most probable scenario is a 2-2 record, which would leave the Bears exactly where they stand right now - in the middle of the pack in the NFC. Considering of their three losses, two have come on nationally-telivised night games, losses to the 49ers and Eagles seem likely. That would mean though that the Bears beat Minnesota on November 29, which would make more than a couple of people smile for a variety of reasons. Like with the previous route, a 2-2 record would mean the December stretch is given extra importance.
A 1-3 record and the season’s likely over. It seems highly unlikely that the Bears could enter December at 5-6 and make the playoffs. Unless the one win is against the Vikings, combined with more Minnesota losses and an impressive end of season run, it will mark three consecutive playoff-less seasons following the Super Bowl appearance in 2007. So far, the common theme in all the losses for the Bears this season has been turnovers. If that continues, major questions will arise about why the Cutler trade was made in the first place.
Finally, there is 0-4. Lovie Smith, Ron Turner and the rest of the coaching staff is toast. So is much of the defense, which is getting up there in age. GM Jerry Angelo could be updating his resume as well if anybody in the McCaskey family is even paying attention at this point. Major criticism will land at the feet of Cutler, Matt Forte and all the other under-performers in 2009, especially since the Bears don’t have a draft pick in the first two rounds in next April’s draft.
So how’s it going to go? Not to seem predictable, but I’m guessing based on how the season has gone, 2-2 seems most likely. With the exception of the Cincinnati game, the Bears seem to play their opponents well. Against good teams - Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta - they play well and the game goes down to the wire. Against bad teams - Detroit, Cleveland - they don’t play particularly well, but still are able to get the job done. Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all good or really good teams, ones that will require the Bears to play as well as they have all season. I still say the December/January schedule sets up well, with home games against division rivals as well as contents with the pathetic Rams and Lions. Going 2-2 in November may not be preferable, but it doesn’t kill the Bears season.
Now of course are my Week 9 picks, with winners in bold.
Washington at Atlanta
Arizona at Chicago
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Houston at Indianapolis
Miami at New England
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Kansas City at Jacksonville
Carolina at New Orleans
Detroit at Seattle
San Diego at New York Giants
Tennessee at San Francisco
Dallas at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh at Denver
Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 76-40
Friday, October 30, 2009
Are you ready for some overeactions?
There are only 16 regular season games on each team’s NFL schedule. Only 16. That means unlike baseball, where there are 10-times that many, or basketball, with about five-times as many games, there is no waiting in the NFL. No adjustment period for new acquisitions to get comfortable, no time for a rookie to learn the playbook, no time to complain about injuries. With only 16 games, every Sunday is important.
And that actually is the best thing about the NFL. The limited number of games means that each week, there are matchups with playoff implications. As a fan, you can’t miss anything, because there’s only four months of actual (regular season) football compared to the seven months of football hype. Each game feels like a movie on limited release in theaters - there’s only a little bit of time to see it, so make sure not to skip it.
Having only 16 games is also the worst thing about the NFL. Because each game is an event, fans, coaches and the media take every little thing that happens and magnify it to Terrence Cody size. Overreactions are as normal in professional football as Brad Childress time management mistakes. It’s the reason team’s are either written in as Super Bowl contenders or written off as horrible failures so early in the season, and too often, these harsh predictions are confused with actual fact.
Take the Bears for example. Last week they laid an egg with an embarrassing loss at Cincinnati. Maybe the worst game of the entire Lovie Smith era. No excuse for that. But based on what people have written or said in Chicago this week, you’d think that the Bengals game officially ended the Bears season. One person I spoke with on the train said the Bears were set to lose four of their next five games. Another said the team would eventually get eclipsed by the Lions in the NFC North standings.
Did I miss something? Do games in southern Ohio now count for 16 games instead of one? Do the Bears still have 10 games to go - six of which are at home? Is the team still 3-3 with wins over the defending Super Bowl champs and on the road in Seattle? Yes, the Bears played like a middle school team last Sunday. Jay Cutler and Matt Forte couldn’t get anything going on offense, and the defense made Cedric Benson look like the player the Bears drafted with the fourth pick in the 2004 draft. It was 31-0 before halftime and everybody associated with the team should be embarrassed.
But it’s impossible to say that this game ends the Bears season. There’s just too much time left to play. Remember the 2006 Indianapolis Colts, the team that ended up beating the Bears in Super Bowl XLI? In a week 14 game at Jacksonville, Indy was absolutely shredded, losing 44-17. The Jaguars ran for 375 yards on 42 caries, an average of about nine yards per rush. Three Jacksonville players ran for more than 70 yards and the Colts allowed four rushing TDs. It was clearly a bad loss for Indianapolis, and afterward, analysts and fans alike all said there was no way the Colts could win the title because their run defense was too poor.
Then safety Bob Sanders returned to the lineup after an injury, and in four playoff games that season, the Colts never allowed more than 100 yards on the ground. Run defense - and Rex Grossman - were the reasons the Colts dominated the Bears in the Super Bowl. In week 14 Indianapolis was left for dead, and by week 19, they were the champions of the world.
Now I’m not saying the Bears are going to win the Super Bowl. Maybe the faults they showed in the Bengals game will persist all year long and the team goes from a very promising 3-1 start to a dreadful 6-10 finish. Perhaps Lovie loses his job (Ron Turner has to go as well). But before that happens, the team has 10 more games to play. Yes, there’s only ten left. Then we have to wait all the way until next September for more football. So lets try and enjoy it.
Here are my Week 8 picks, with winners in bold.
Houston at Buffalo
Cleveland at Chicago
Seattle at Dallas
St. Louis at Detroit
San Francisco at Indianapolis
Miami at New York Jets
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Denver at Baltimore
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Oakland at San Diego
Minnesota at Green Bay
Carolina at Arizona
Atlanta at New Orleans
Last Week: 7-6
Season to Date: 70-33
And that actually is the best thing about the NFL. The limited number of games means that each week, there are matchups with playoff implications. As a fan, you can’t miss anything, because there’s only four months of actual (regular season) football compared to the seven months of football hype. Each game feels like a movie on limited release in theaters - there’s only a little bit of time to see it, so make sure not to skip it.
Having only 16 games is also the worst thing about the NFL. Because each game is an event, fans, coaches and the media take every little thing that happens and magnify it to Terrence Cody size. Overreactions are as normal in professional football as Brad Childress time management mistakes. It’s the reason team’s are either written in as Super Bowl contenders or written off as horrible failures so early in the season, and too often, these harsh predictions are confused with actual fact.
Take the Bears for example. Last week they laid an egg with an embarrassing loss at Cincinnati. Maybe the worst game of the entire Lovie Smith era. No excuse for that. But based on what people have written or said in Chicago this week, you’d think that the Bengals game officially ended the Bears season. One person I spoke with on the train said the Bears were set to lose four of their next five games. Another said the team would eventually get eclipsed by the Lions in the NFC North standings.
Did I miss something? Do games in southern Ohio now count for 16 games instead of one? Do the Bears still have 10 games to go - six of which are at home? Is the team still 3-3 with wins over the defending Super Bowl champs and on the road in Seattle? Yes, the Bears played like a middle school team last Sunday. Jay Cutler and Matt Forte couldn’t get anything going on offense, and the defense made Cedric Benson look like the player the Bears drafted with the fourth pick in the 2004 draft. It was 31-0 before halftime and everybody associated with the team should be embarrassed.
But it’s impossible to say that this game ends the Bears season. There’s just too much time left to play. Remember the 2006 Indianapolis Colts, the team that ended up beating the Bears in Super Bowl XLI? In a week 14 game at Jacksonville, Indy was absolutely shredded, losing 44-17. The Jaguars ran for 375 yards on 42 caries, an average of about nine yards per rush. Three Jacksonville players ran for more than 70 yards and the Colts allowed four rushing TDs. It was clearly a bad loss for Indianapolis, and afterward, analysts and fans alike all said there was no way the Colts could win the title because their run defense was too poor.
Then safety Bob Sanders returned to the lineup after an injury, and in four playoff games that season, the Colts never allowed more than 100 yards on the ground. Run defense - and Rex Grossman - were the reasons the Colts dominated the Bears in the Super Bowl. In week 14 Indianapolis was left for dead, and by week 19, they were the champions of the world.
Now I’m not saying the Bears are going to win the Super Bowl. Maybe the faults they showed in the Bengals game will persist all year long and the team goes from a very promising 3-1 start to a dreadful 6-10 finish. Perhaps Lovie loses his job (Ron Turner has to go as well). But before that happens, the team has 10 more games to play. Yes, there’s only ten left. Then we have to wait all the way until next September for more football. So lets try and enjoy it.
Here are my Week 8 picks, with winners in bold.
Houston at Buffalo
Cleveland at Chicago
Seattle at Dallas
St. Louis at Detroit
San Francisco at Indianapolis
Miami at New York Jets
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Denver at Baltimore
Jacksonville at Tennessee
Oakland at San Diego
Minnesota at Green Bay
Carolina at Arizona
Atlanta at New Orleans
Last Week: 7-6
Season to Date: 70-33
Friday, October 23, 2009
Close ones define Bears
Bears-Bengals this Sunday. Also known as the Benson Bowl. Should be known as the Heart Attack Bowl.
The Bears have played five games, which have been decided by 6, 3, 6, 24 and 7 points. Take away the Lions game, and the Bears average result has been less than a six points.
The Bengals have played six games, which have been decided by 5, 7, 3, 3, 3 and 11 points. Take away last week’s game versus the Texans, and the Bengals are averaging final scores that are just over four points.
So you know that this Sunday’s game is going to come down to the end. It’s going to be up to either Jay Cutler and the offense or Lance Briggs and the defense to come up with the big play if the Bears are going to win. Last week’s meltdown in Atlanta was devastating for a number of reasons, but the main one was the Bears horrible execution in the fourth quarter. That can’t happen again if the Bears are going to win in Cincinnati.
As stressful as these games are, Bears fans should be used to it. In 2008, the Bears had 10 games decided by a touchdown or less. Their point differential that season was +25, which was 14 points fewer than the Packers, who won three fewer games than the Bears did. This year, through the first five games, they're on that same pace, at +20, while Green Bay again is at +39.
Close games are usually decided by three keys: coaching, turnovers and penalties. Though I've criticized him in the past, I think Lovie Smith is doing a good job this year at managing the defense. Considering there is nobody on the 53-man roster that I would valid NFL safety and the linebacking corps is more beat up that the Bluesmobile at the end of Jake and Elwood's adventure, it's difficult for me to hate on Smith's performance as the team's new defensive coordinator. My hope is that new defensive end Gaines Adams provides the consistent pass rush the team has lacked the last few weeks.
At -1 differential, it would seem that turnovers have been a minor deal, not a HUGE one. Wrong. While eight takeaways compared to nine giveaways isn't horrible, it has been the location of these turnovers. Too often the fumbles or picks have come in the red zone, such as last week's multiple fumbles by Matt Forte inside the five and Cutler's pick when the Bears were inside field goal range. Both losses, to Green Bay week 1 and Atlanta last Sunday, can be directly tied to giving the ball away when it mattered most.
And then the penalties. Against Green Bay, it was the risk of having 12 men on the field that forced a botched punt, leading to Packer points. Against Atlanta, the Bears did give Atlanta a first down because of 12 men on the field, and also moved a 4th-and-1 back to a 4th-and-6 on the final drive thanks to Orlando Pace's false start. Overall, the team only has 31 penalties for 266 yards, which both rank in the bottom third of the league. But like the turnovers, its been when and where they take place, not how many of them there are.
So expect another nail biter in Southern Ohio this Sunday. The Bengals don't blow people out, instead opting for physical games that are decided in the final minutes. The Bears don't blow people out, instead opting for games that are decided by turnovers and penalties. Which will prevail? See who I like in my Week 7 picks, winners in bold.
Green Bay at Cleveland
San Diego at Kansas City
Indianapolis at St. Louis
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
New England at Tampa Bay (in London)
San Francisco at Houston
New York Jets at Oakland
Buffalo at Carolina
Chicago at Cincinnati
Atlanta at Dallas
New Orleans at Miami
Arizona at New York Giants
Philadelphia at Washington
Last Week: 8-6
Season to Date: 63-27
The Bears have played five games, which have been decided by 6, 3, 6, 24 and 7 points. Take away the Lions game, and the Bears average result has been less than a six points.
The Bengals have played six games, which have been decided by 5, 7, 3, 3, 3 and 11 points. Take away last week’s game versus the Texans, and the Bengals are averaging final scores that are just over four points.
So you know that this Sunday’s game is going to come down to the end. It’s going to be up to either Jay Cutler and the offense or Lance Briggs and the defense to come up with the big play if the Bears are going to win. Last week’s meltdown in Atlanta was devastating for a number of reasons, but the main one was the Bears horrible execution in the fourth quarter. That can’t happen again if the Bears are going to win in Cincinnati.
As stressful as these games are, Bears fans should be used to it. In 2008, the Bears had 10 games decided by a touchdown or less. Their point differential that season was +25, which was 14 points fewer than the Packers, who won three fewer games than the Bears did. This year, through the first five games, they're on that same pace, at +20, while Green Bay again is at +39.
Close games are usually decided by three keys: coaching, turnovers and penalties. Though I've criticized him in the past, I think Lovie Smith is doing a good job this year at managing the defense. Considering there is nobody on the 53-man roster that I would valid NFL safety and the linebacking corps is more beat up that the Bluesmobile at the end of Jake and Elwood's adventure, it's difficult for me to hate on Smith's performance as the team's new defensive coordinator. My hope is that new defensive end Gaines Adams provides the consistent pass rush the team has lacked the last few weeks.
At -1 differential, it would seem that turnovers have been a minor deal, not a HUGE one. Wrong. While eight takeaways compared to nine giveaways isn't horrible, it has been the location of these turnovers. Too often the fumbles or picks have come in the red zone, such as last week's multiple fumbles by Matt Forte inside the five and Cutler's pick when the Bears were inside field goal range. Both losses, to Green Bay week 1 and Atlanta last Sunday, can be directly tied to giving the ball away when it mattered most.
And then the penalties. Against Green Bay, it was the risk of having 12 men on the field that forced a botched punt, leading to Packer points. Against Atlanta, the Bears did give Atlanta a first down because of 12 men on the field, and also moved a 4th-and-1 back to a 4th-and-6 on the final drive thanks to Orlando Pace's false start. Overall, the team only has 31 penalties for 266 yards, which both rank in the bottom third of the league. But like the turnovers, its been when and where they take place, not how many of them there are.
So expect another nail biter in Southern Ohio this Sunday. The Bengals don't blow people out, instead opting for physical games that are decided in the final minutes. The Bears don't blow people out, instead opting for games that are decided by turnovers and penalties. Which will prevail? See who I like in my Week 7 picks, winners in bold.
Green Bay at Cleveland
San Diego at Kansas City
Indianapolis at St. Louis
Minnesota at Pittsburgh
New England at Tampa Bay (in London)
San Francisco at Houston
New York Jets at Oakland
Buffalo at Carolina
Chicago at Cincinnati
Atlanta at Dallas
New Orleans at Miami
Arizona at New York Giants
Philadelphia at Washington
Last Week: 8-6
Season to Date: 63-27
Friday, October 16, 2009
Watch for a Wild Bear
Major innovation comes along rarely in sports play calling, but when it does, it makes a big difference. Think of how much the pick-and-roll changed basketball: the point guard was cleared from his defender, switched onto another opponent, and given the option to either drive to the basket or dish it to a teammate. The pick-and-roll is one play - maybe the only one in all of sports - that when perfectly executed, it’s impossible to defend.
Last season, the Miami Dolphins had a football innovation. Well, sort of. They brought back an offense called the Single Wing, but they made some minor changes and re-named it the Wildcat. With running back Ronnie Brown behind center instead of a quarterback, it gave Brown the option of keeping the ball on a draw or handing it off to fellow back Ricky Williams. Opposing teams were thrown off guard by this formation, and Miami used it in its run to the playoffs last season.
A year later, the Wildcat has exploded onto the NFL scene. Nearly every team uses it, though still nobody does it as well as the Dolphins. In last week’s Monday Night game against the Jets, the ‘Phins ran for 103 yards out of the ‘gimmick’ formation, including the game-winning two-yard TD run by Brown with five seconds left.
This week, and this is one of the craziest predictions I’ve ever made on this blog, I’m predicting the Bears will use the Wildcat for the first time in their game against the Falcons. You want reasons why? Here’s three of them:
1) They’ve got the perfect player for it: Devin Hester. He’s no longer an elite kick/punt returner, but he would be dynamic in the backfield alongside Matt Forte. Hester is still good at finding a gap in the defense, and when he finds it, it’s over - six points. He’s also a versatile player, meaning he would know when to hand it to Forte, when to keep it, maybe even when to throw it on a trick play.
2) They are starting a six-week stretch of inter-division opponents. That means no Lions, Packers or Vikings until Nov. 29. It also means they are facing teams that are un-familiar with the Bears’ personnel. Adding a new package makes perfect sense at this time of the season, because it allows them to put more plays and formations on film for those final six weeks of the year, when the opponents know the Bears as well as anybody.
3) Atlanta isn’t a great run defense team, ranking 24th in the league with 127 rushing yards per game. Meaning they are the perfect squad to try something new against. If the Bears were playing say, Baltimore, maybe it’s not a great idea to give the ball to a wide receiver in the backfield. But a team that struggles tacking like Atlanta does is ideal for a squad trying out something new. I expect Jay Cutler to be out wide and Hester in the shotgun at least twice this Sunday.
But will the Bears win? We all remember last year’s game in the Georgia Dome, and now comes time for revenge. Find out who I like below in my Week 6 picks, winners in bold.
Houston at Cincinnati
Detroit at Green Bay
Baltimore at Minnesota
New York Giants at New Orleans
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Kansas City at Washington
St. Louis at Jacksonville
Philadelphia at Oakland
Arizona at Seattle
Tennessee at New England
Buffalo at New York Jets
Chicago at Atlanta
Denver at San Diego
Last Week: 9-5
Season to Date: 55-21
In the survival pool, I'm still alive after taking the Eagles last week. This Sunday, another green and white team, as I'm going with the Jets.
Last season, the Miami Dolphins had a football innovation. Well, sort of. They brought back an offense called the Single Wing, but they made some minor changes and re-named it the Wildcat. With running back Ronnie Brown behind center instead of a quarterback, it gave Brown the option of keeping the ball on a draw or handing it off to fellow back Ricky Williams. Opposing teams were thrown off guard by this formation, and Miami used it in its run to the playoffs last season.
A year later, the Wildcat has exploded onto the NFL scene. Nearly every team uses it, though still nobody does it as well as the Dolphins. In last week’s Monday Night game against the Jets, the ‘Phins ran for 103 yards out of the ‘gimmick’ formation, including the game-winning two-yard TD run by Brown with five seconds left.
This week, and this is one of the craziest predictions I’ve ever made on this blog, I’m predicting the Bears will use the Wildcat for the first time in their game against the Falcons. You want reasons why? Here’s three of them:
1) They’ve got the perfect player for it: Devin Hester. He’s no longer an elite kick/punt returner, but he would be dynamic in the backfield alongside Matt Forte. Hester is still good at finding a gap in the defense, and when he finds it, it’s over - six points. He’s also a versatile player, meaning he would know when to hand it to Forte, when to keep it, maybe even when to throw it on a trick play.
2) They are starting a six-week stretch of inter-division opponents. That means no Lions, Packers or Vikings until Nov. 29. It also means they are facing teams that are un-familiar with the Bears’ personnel. Adding a new package makes perfect sense at this time of the season, because it allows them to put more plays and formations on film for those final six weeks of the year, when the opponents know the Bears as well as anybody.
3) Atlanta isn’t a great run defense team, ranking 24th in the league with 127 rushing yards per game. Meaning they are the perfect squad to try something new against. If the Bears were playing say, Baltimore, maybe it’s not a great idea to give the ball to a wide receiver in the backfield. But a team that struggles tacking like Atlanta does is ideal for a squad trying out something new. I expect Jay Cutler to be out wide and Hester in the shotgun at least twice this Sunday.
But will the Bears win? We all remember last year’s game in the Georgia Dome, and now comes time for revenge. Find out who I like below in my Week 6 picks, winners in bold.
Houston at Cincinnati
Detroit at Green Bay
Baltimore at Minnesota
New York Giants at New Orleans
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Kansas City at Washington
St. Louis at Jacksonville
Philadelphia at Oakland
Arizona at Seattle
Tennessee at New England
Buffalo at New York Jets
Chicago at Atlanta
Denver at San Diego
Last Week: 9-5
Season to Date: 55-21
In the survival pool, I'm still alive after taking the Eagles last week. This Sunday, another green and white team, as I'm going with the Jets.
Friday, October 09, 2009
I want the bye to go bye-bye
Sunday in the fall is supposed to be about one thing: football. If one wanted to, they could spend 13 consecutive hours watching some type of football game, preview, recap, highlight or analysis. It’s what millions work all week for, the early afternoon shifting to the early evening to the darkness of night, all while on the couch watching grown men run around and hit each other.
That is, unless three letters get in the way: b-y-e. The dreaded bye week means your team isn’t playing, that those 53 players are most likely doing exactly the same thing you are - watching football. It’s like stubbing your toe. It’s not a big deal, next week you won’t even notice it, but at the time it happens, it really stings.
One of the four teams with the bye this week is the Bears. That means despite the fact that the team has won thee games in a row and have climbed up to second place in the NFC North, they must take the week off and force Chicagoans to do something else with their Sunday. They could rake the leaves, get some homework done, or do the next best thing to watching your favorite team, which is watch other teams. If that’s your strategy*, here are my picks for Week 5. Winners, just like always, in bold. And if you need a survival pick, go with the Eagles like I am.
*If that is indeed your strategy, I’m sorry. This week’s slate of games is just awful. I usually try to pick upsets, but this week, there was such a wide gap between favorites and underdogs, I almost went all chalk. Next Sunday will be better, I promise.
Cleveland at Buffalo
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dallas at Kansas City
Minnesota at St. Louis
Oakland at New York Giants
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Washington at Carolina
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Atlanta at San Francisco
New England at Denver
Houston at Arizona
Jacksonville at Seattle
Indianapolis at Tennessee
New York Jets at Miami
Last Week: 11-3
Season to Date: 46-16
That is, unless three letters get in the way: b-y-e. The dreaded bye week means your team isn’t playing, that those 53 players are most likely doing exactly the same thing you are - watching football. It’s like stubbing your toe. It’s not a big deal, next week you won’t even notice it, but at the time it happens, it really stings.
One of the four teams with the bye this week is the Bears. That means despite the fact that the team has won thee games in a row and have climbed up to second place in the NFC North, they must take the week off and force Chicagoans to do something else with their Sunday. They could rake the leaves, get some homework done, or do the next best thing to watching your favorite team, which is watch other teams. If that’s your strategy*, here are my picks for Week 5. Winners, just like always, in bold. And if you need a survival pick, go with the Eagles like I am.
*If that is indeed your strategy, I’m sorry. This week’s slate of games is just awful. I usually try to pick upsets, but this week, there was such a wide gap between favorites and underdogs, I almost went all chalk. Next Sunday will be better, I promise.
Cleveland at Buffalo
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Dallas at Kansas City
Minnesota at St. Louis
Oakland at New York Giants
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Washington at Carolina
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Atlanta at San Francisco
New England at Denver
Houston at Arizona
Jacksonville at Seattle
Indianapolis at Tennessee
New York Jets at Miami
Last Week: 11-3
Season to Date: 46-16
Friday, October 02, 2009
Can the Olympics play cornerback?
It’s Olympic mania here in the Windy City. Everywhere you turn in Chicago, there’s a ‘We Support the Bid’ sign, a newspaper article discussing something to do with today’s announcement or somebody talking about our chances at the 2016 games. It’s the biggest day the city has seen in 11 months, since Nov. 4, 2008, when Barack Obama won the election and a half-million people, myself included, jam packed into Grant Park to watch him speak to his supporters. To put it simply, today’s decision will impact Chicagoans for many years to come.
But this is a football column, not an Olympics one. But that doesn’t mean we can’t borrow from the spirit of the games and translate it to pigskin. So without further ado, here are your medalists for the first three weeks of the Bears season.
OFFENSE
Bronze- Ron Turner, offensive coordinator
I’ve been critical of the Bears’ offensive play calling before and will continue to do so if Turner continues to be clueless on how to attack opponents. In last weeks game at Seattle, with the Bears down 19-17 during the fourth quarter, Turner called not one, not two, but three consecutive runs for backup running back Garrett Wolfe. I understand giving Matt Forte a breather, but do it earlier in the game and not when the team has a 3rd-and-2 and is trailing by two. With wideouts like Hester, Knox and Bennett (more on them later), and a tight end like Olsen, I’d hope Turner one day wakes up, realizes its 2009, and starts putting some spread offense principles in the Bears attack.
Silver- Jay Cutler, quarterback
When looking over Cutler’s stats, I can’t help but wonder one thing: Why is he so bad in the first quarter? In 2009, he’s thrown for only 126 yards during the game’s first 15 minutes, by far his lowest of the four quarters. He’s also thrown no TD’s and two picks during that time frame, a bad sign for a team that wants to get off to a good start. Yet for all that, he’s been great at the end of games these past two weeks, leading the Bears to consecutive come-from-behind wins.
Gold- The wide receivers
Before the Green Bay game, if you’d told me, Lovie Smith or anybody else that cares about football that Matt Forte would be rushing for 2.5 yards a carry and have no touchdowns through week three, the Bears bandwagon would be as empty as Karl Malone’s trophy case. Yet those stats are real and the team is 2-1. How? Because of the improved play of the Bears wideouts. Devin Hester has turned into a real receiver, not just a speedster who runs fly routes. That game-winning TD grab was a very difficult catch, as the Windy City Flyer had to reach behind his head for the ball, maintain his balance and then take off for the end zone. Earl Bennett has matured into a dependable option, both on the outside and over the middle. And every ones new favorite player is Johnny Knox, the fifth round pick who is looking more and more like a future #1 receiver every time he touches the ball.
DEFENSE
Bronze- The secondary
When a secondary makes Seneca Wallace look like a legit NFL quarterback for three-plus quarters, there’s trouble. Pass coverage was a concern for the team coming into the season, and it has proven itself to be an issue through three weeks. The safeties are constantly out of position on pass plays, and have been lucky that the last two weeks, the Steelers and Seahawks have had a case of butterfingers. Cornerback isn’t much better, with Zach Bowman, Nate Vasher and Corey Graham each struggling on one side and Charles Tillman looking like he’s at 75% health on the other. Also, here’s a suggestion for Peanut: I love when you strip the ball and force fumbles, but don’t do it unless you have the tackle wrapped up. The only Seattle TD was a result of you not tackling.
Silver- The line
They come to play every week, but only occasionally do they make big plays. And that’s a problem. Week one, it was Adewale Ogunleye. Week two, it was Alex Brown. Last week, Anthony Adams and Mark Anderson got into the act. If they can all play well at the same time, the defense will go back to their dominant ways. Also, has anybody seen Tommie Harris. Maybe he’ll dive across the line of scrimmage for old times sake this Sunday and remind everybody how good #91 used to be.
Gold- The linebackers
Brian Urlacher’s done for the year. Pisa Tinoisamoa has missed the last few weeks. Hunter Hillenmeyer is banged up. So far, none of that has mattered. Everybody on the second level has stepped their game up, so much so that I don’t even think the announcers mentioned Urlahcer’s absence until they showed him on the bench during the third quarter. Lance Briggs was all over the place, as usual, causing havoc and forcing turnovers. Nick Roach has played both inside and outside well, and Jamar Williams has shown some promise. It’s good to know that at least one unit on the defense is playing as well as they can right now.
Now onto week four picks, with my winners in bold. Last week I went 11-5, pushing my overall record to 35-13.
Detroit at Chicago
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Seattle at Indianapolis
New York Giants at Kansas City
Baltimore at New England
Tampa Bay at Washington
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Oakland at Houston
Buffalo at Miami
New York Jets at New Orleans
Dallas at Denver
St. Louis at San Francisco
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Green Bay at Minnesota
And in my survival pool, with the Saints, Redskins and Ravens no longer eligible, I’m going with a city that starts with C, ends with O and has HICAG in the middle. DAAA BEARS
But this is a football column, not an Olympics one. But that doesn’t mean we can’t borrow from the spirit of the games and translate it to pigskin. So without further ado, here are your medalists for the first three weeks of the Bears season.
OFFENSE
Bronze- Ron Turner, offensive coordinator
I’ve been critical of the Bears’ offensive play calling before and will continue to do so if Turner continues to be clueless on how to attack opponents. In last weeks game at Seattle, with the Bears down 19-17 during the fourth quarter, Turner called not one, not two, but three consecutive runs for backup running back Garrett Wolfe. I understand giving Matt Forte a breather, but do it earlier in the game and not when the team has a 3rd-and-2 and is trailing by two. With wideouts like Hester, Knox and Bennett (more on them later), and a tight end like Olsen, I’d hope Turner one day wakes up, realizes its 2009, and starts putting some spread offense principles in the Bears attack.
Silver- Jay Cutler, quarterback
When looking over Cutler’s stats, I can’t help but wonder one thing: Why is he so bad in the first quarter? In 2009, he’s thrown for only 126 yards during the game’s first 15 minutes, by far his lowest of the four quarters. He’s also thrown no TD’s and two picks during that time frame, a bad sign for a team that wants to get off to a good start. Yet for all that, he’s been great at the end of games these past two weeks, leading the Bears to consecutive come-from-behind wins.
Gold- The wide receivers
Before the Green Bay game, if you’d told me, Lovie Smith or anybody else that cares about football that Matt Forte would be rushing for 2.5 yards a carry and have no touchdowns through week three, the Bears bandwagon would be as empty as Karl Malone’s trophy case. Yet those stats are real and the team is 2-1. How? Because of the improved play of the Bears wideouts. Devin Hester has turned into a real receiver, not just a speedster who runs fly routes. That game-winning TD grab was a very difficult catch, as the Windy City Flyer had to reach behind his head for the ball, maintain his balance and then take off for the end zone. Earl Bennett has matured into a dependable option, both on the outside and over the middle. And every ones new favorite player is Johnny Knox, the fifth round pick who is looking more and more like a future #1 receiver every time he touches the ball.
DEFENSE
Bronze- The secondary
When a secondary makes Seneca Wallace look like a legit NFL quarterback for three-plus quarters, there’s trouble. Pass coverage was a concern for the team coming into the season, and it has proven itself to be an issue through three weeks. The safeties are constantly out of position on pass plays, and have been lucky that the last two weeks, the Steelers and Seahawks have had a case of butterfingers. Cornerback isn’t much better, with Zach Bowman, Nate Vasher and Corey Graham each struggling on one side and Charles Tillman looking like he’s at 75% health on the other. Also, here’s a suggestion for Peanut: I love when you strip the ball and force fumbles, but don’t do it unless you have the tackle wrapped up. The only Seattle TD was a result of you not tackling.
Silver- The line
They come to play every week, but only occasionally do they make big plays. And that’s a problem. Week one, it was Adewale Ogunleye. Week two, it was Alex Brown. Last week, Anthony Adams and Mark Anderson got into the act. If they can all play well at the same time, the defense will go back to their dominant ways. Also, has anybody seen Tommie Harris. Maybe he’ll dive across the line of scrimmage for old times sake this Sunday and remind everybody how good #91 used to be.
Gold- The linebackers
Brian Urlacher’s done for the year. Pisa Tinoisamoa has missed the last few weeks. Hunter Hillenmeyer is banged up. So far, none of that has mattered. Everybody on the second level has stepped their game up, so much so that I don’t even think the announcers mentioned Urlahcer’s absence until they showed him on the bench during the third quarter. Lance Briggs was all over the place, as usual, causing havoc and forcing turnovers. Nick Roach has played both inside and outside well, and Jamar Williams has shown some promise. It’s good to know that at least one unit on the defense is playing as well as they can right now.
Now onto week four picks, with my winners in bold. Last week I went 11-5, pushing my overall record to 35-13.
Detroit at Chicago
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Seattle at Indianapolis
New York Giants at Kansas City
Baltimore at New England
Tampa Bay at Washington
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Oakland at Houston
Buffalo at Miami
New York Jets at New Orleans
Dallas at Denver
St. Louis at San Francisco
San Diego at Pittsburgh
Green Bay at Minnesota
And in my survival pool, with the Saints, Redskins and Ravens no longer eligible, I’m going with a city that starts with C, ends with O and has HICAG in the middle. DAAA BEARS
Friday, September 25, 2009
Myth vs. Truth
It has only been two weeks, but there already is a separation between what we thought about the NFL going into the season and what really is taking place. Here are five examples, followed by Week 3 picks.
What We Thought: That the Patriots would pick where they left off in 2007 when Tom Brady was last healthy and be un-stoppable.
What’s Really Going On: If Buffalo kick returner Leodis McKelvin decides to take a touchback instead of bringing a kick out in Week One against New England, the Patriots are 0-2. They were completely dominated by the Jets, and both their defense and running game seem to be lost. Brady’s numbers have been pretty good, but then again, he’s already thrown 100 passes (only two other QBs have thrown over 80 passes, only one other with more than 90), so big numbers should be expected. With the Falcons this week, Baltimore next and at the surprise Broncos following that, New England could easily be 1-4 by mid-October.
What We Thought: That San Francisco would be decent with Michael Crabtree and horrible without him.
What’s Really Going On: So far for the 49ers it has been no Crabtree, no problem. San Francisco is 2-0 with wins already against perceived NFC West favorites Arizona and Seattle. It’s isn’t that the team couldn’t use the former Texas Tech star, but since he has chosen to take the idiotic route of holding out because he thinks he should be paid like the fifth player chosen in the draft even though he didn’t go until ten, the Niners are moving on without him. QB Shaun Hill has been solid, but the main offensive threat has been running back Frank Gore. A win this weekend at Minnesota would show the rest of the NFC that Samurai Mike Singletary’s team is for real.
What We Thought: That the Colts would sorely miss the presence of Marvin Harrison.
What Really Going On: Why re-sign an aging future Hall-of-Famer when you have Pierre Garcon. Who? The receiver from Mount Union, who is less than a year older but about a half-second slower than me in the 40 (one of those two previous statements are true), has had a big impact on Indy’s offense. Versus Miami last week he caught only one ball, but turned it into a 48-yard touchdown. With Garcon on one side, All Pro Reggie Wayne on the other, Dallas Clark in the slot and some dude named Peyton at quarterback, the Colts don’t seem to be missing a beat despite the loss of Harrison.
What We Though: That the 2008 Falcons and Dolphins were just a flash in the pan.
What’s Really Going On: Miami and their Wildcat was indeed a flash in the pan; add some bread crumbs, olive oil and you got yourself some fried Dolphin. The Falcons actually are as real as it gets. Matt Ryan has continued his rise along the NFL quarterbacking ladder, proving he’s one of the best in the game. Adding Tony Gonzalez sure hasn’t hurt, with the star tight end grabbing 12 passes for 144 yards and two TD’s already in ’09. Atlanta has a really tough stretch coming up in their schedule - at New England, bye, at San Francisco, the Bears on Sunday night, at Dallas, at New Orleans, Washington, at Carolina and then at the NY Giants. That’s six road games in nine weeks, with all the matchups against potentially tough opponents. So the Falcons are for real right now, but check with me again as the season goes on.
What We Thought: That the addition of Jay Cutler would open up the Bears offense.
What’s Really Going On: New year, new quarterback, same old Bears. Sure, they throw the ball some more, but that has partially been because Matt Forte has never really been able to get going thus far in ’09. But with Ron Turner still calling the offensive plays (for some reason), the attack still sputters along like a little kid trying to learn to walk. Short pass, short pass, run on third down, punt. Or short pass, run, try and go deep, punt. The play calling has usually been along those lines during the first two weeks. Will Turner open it up some more to allow Cutler to make plays? Bears fans can only hope the pre-season prediction will eventually come true.
Now for my week 3 picks, coming off an 11-5 record last week, pushing my season mark to 24-8. My picks in bold.
Washington vs. Detroit
Green Bay vs. St. Louis
San Francisco vs. Minnesota
Atlanta vs. New England
Tennessee vs. New York Jets
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Jacksonville vs. Houston
New Orleans vs. Buffalo
Bears vs. Seattle
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Denver vs. Oakland
Miami vs. San Diego
Indianapolis vs. Arizona
Carolina vs. Dallas
And my survival pick of the week - New Orleans and Washington are gone - is Baltimore to whoop up the Browns.
What We Thought: That the Patriots would pick where they left off in 2007 when Tom Brady was last healthy and be un-stoppable.
What’s Really Going On: If Buffalo kick returner Leodis McKelvin decides to take a touchback instead of bringing a kick out in Week One against New England, the Patriots are 0-2. They were completely dominated by the Jets, and both their defense and running game seem to be lost. Brady’s numbers have been pretty good, but then again, he’s already thrown 100 passes (only two other QBs have thrown over 80 passes, only one other with more than 90), so big numbers should be expected. With the Falcons this week, Baltimore next and at the surprise Broncos following that, New England could easily be 1-4 by mid-October.
What We Thought: That San Francisco would be decent with Michael Crabtree and horrible without him.
What’s Really Going On: So far for the 49ers it has been no Crabtree, no problem. San Francisco is 2-0 with wins already against perceived NFC West favorites Arizona and Seattle. It’s isn’t that the team couldn’t use the former Texas Tech star, but since he has chosen to take the idiotic route of holding out because he thinks he should be paid like the fifth player chosen in the draft even though he didn’t go until ten, the Niners are moving on without him. QB Shaun Hill has been solid, but the main offensive threat has been running back Frank Gore. A win this weekend at Minnesota would show the rest of the NFC that Samurai Mike Singletary’s team is for real.
What We Thought: That the Colts would sorely miss the presence of Marvin Harrison.
What Really Going On: Why re-sign an aging future Hall-of-Famer when you have Pierre Garcon. Who? The receiver from Mount Union, who is less than a year older but about a half-second slower than me in the 40 (one of those two previous statements are true), has had a big impact on Indy’s offense. Versus Miami last week he caught only one ball, but turned it into a 48-yard touchdown. With Garcon on one side, All Pro Reggie Wayne on the other, Dallas Clark in the slot and some dude named Peyton at quarterback, the Colts don’t seem to be missing a beat despite the loss of Harrison.
What We Though: That the 2008 Falcons and Dolphins were just a flash in the pan.
What’s Really Going On: Miami and their Wildcat was indeed a flash in the pan; add some bread crumbs, olive oil and you got yourself some fried Dolphin. The Falcons actually are as real as it gets. Matt Ryan has continued his rise along the NFL quarterbacking ladder, proving he’s one of the best in the game. Adding Tony Gonzalez sure hasn’t hurt, with the star tight end grabbing 12 passes for 144 yards and two TD’s already in ’09. Atlanta has a really tough stretch coming up in their schedule - at New England, bye, at San Francisco, the Bears on Sunday night, at Dallas, at New Orleans, Washington, at Carolina and then at the NY Giants. That’s six road games in nine weeks, with all the matchups against potentially tough opponents. So the Falcons are for real right now, but check with me again as the season goes on.
What We Thought: That the addition of Jay Cutler would open up the Bears offense.
What’s Really Going On: New year, new quarterback, same old Bears. Sure, they throw the ball some more, but that has partially been because Matt Forte has never really been able to get going thus far in ’09. But with Ron Turner still calling the offensive plays (for some reason), the attack still sputters along like a little kid trying to learn to walk. Short pass, short pass, run on third down, punt. Or short pass, run, try and go deep, punt. The play calling has usually been along those lines during the first two weeks. Will Turner open it up some more to allow Cutler to make plays? Bears fans can only hope the pre-season prediction will eventually come true.
Now for my week 3 picks, coming off an 11-5 record last week, pushing my season mark to 24-8. My picks in bold.
Washington vs. Detroit
Green Bay vs. St. Louis
San Francisco vs. Minnesota
Atlanta vs. New England
Tennessee vs. New York Jets
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Jacksonville vs. Houston
New Orleans vs. Buffalo
Bears vs. Seattle
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Denver vs. Oakland
Miami vs. San Diego
Indianapolis vs. Arizona
Carolina vs. Dallas
And my survival pick of the week - New Orleans and Washington are gone - is Baltimore to whoop up the Browns.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Tough loss in cheese land
Instead of a longer column, here are four expanded thoughts on the Bears-Packers game, one on the upcoming Steelers matchup, followed by Week 2 picks.
1) As much as the Green Bay loss stung - and it felt like a swarm of mosquitoes attacked after that game - the season-ending injury to Brian Urlacher was much more painful. Before the season began, a lot of writers talked about how the middle linebacker was going to have a career year. He was healthy, he was comfortable with Bob Babich as his linebackers coach and he’s surrounded by a pair of guys, Lance Briggs and Pisa Tinoisamoa, who would allow him to roam the middle of the field and make plays. During the first quarter, #54 laid a great hit on Aaron Rodgers, one of those classic Urlacher blows where he just slams into a guy like the train hitting the criminals’ bus in ‘The Fugitive’. But that hit is what probably messed up his wrist, ending his 2009 before it even began. The Bears will be OK without him, since Hunter Hillenmeyer and Nick Roach are serviceable players. But they could have been great with him, and it’s too bad that won’t happen.
2) Offensive play calling was one of the deaths of the 2008 Bears, and it appears to be happening again. Not enough blame was placed on Ron Turner for his horrendous plays in the fourth quarter, which ended up costing the Bears the win. Follow my logic here: After an impressive drive, Bears have 1st-and-Goal from the 5 with 3:48 remaining. Score is 13-12 Packers. What does Turner do? First down he hands the ball to Matt Forte, which makes perfect sense. Gain of one, making it second down on the 4. Note that Forte at this point had now rushed the ball on four consecutive plays. So what’s the second down call? You guessed it, #22 on a toss to the outside, a play that has a history of working roughly 0% of the time. No gain of course, making it third down from the four. Now Turner only has one choice, which is to throw. But Turner decides to call a play-action, which nobody wearing green & gold falls for, and sends only one receiver, Greg Olsen, out on a route. He’s surrounded, ball sails over his head, and now the Bears have to settle for Robbie Gould. A 15-13 lead could have been 20-13 (with a two-point conversion), which of course made a difference when Nate Vasher did his best Richard Pryor impression a minute later. (Get it, he got burned) If Ron Turner is smarter calling plays, the Bears may win that game, even with the late Packer TD.
3) Now onto the main topic of the week, Mr. Jay Cutler. Everybody had a prediction on how his season would unfold, but nobody predicted this. Four picks, including three in the first half, and one on the final drive of the game. Simply put, it was very Rex-like, but with the added disappointment of actual expectations. Some of the picks were the fault of receivers, some were nerves, some were just good defensive plays. And believe me, he’ll bounce back at some point this year, and he better considering the price the team paid for his services. But as Herman Edwards once famously says, ‘You play to win the game.’ As far as I’m concerned, Cutler’s 1:4 TD-to-interception ratio is no big deal compared to his 0-1 record as the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears.
4) It’s been all complaining thus far, so it’s only fair to highlight a few guys who played well Sunday night. The clear #1 is the Prince, Adewale Ogunleye. Showing the speed and power that made him a consistent double-digit sack man earlier this decade, Ogunleye recorded two sacks to go along with five pressures versus the Pack. That kind of pass rush is exactly what the Bears need to succeed this season, because we saw later in the game that they don’t have a secondary that can sit back in coverage if the team chooses to blitz. A second player who shined under the Sunday night lights was wideout Johnny Knox. Despite only making two catches, the emergency #3 receiver - Devin Aromashodu was out with a quad injury - gained 82 yards through the air. That included a 68-yard bomb down the right sideline, where Konx blew by former Heisman winner (and still very fast) Charles Woodson. A go-to deep threat was something the Bears offense lacked in 2008, but if Knox and Devin Hester can continue to make plays on the long ball, it will elevate the offense as a whole.
5) The longer I think about facing Pittsburgh this Sunday, the better I feel. Which is a surprise, considering they are the defending Super Bowl champs and the Bears are already in must-win mode. But the Steelers are on nine-days rest, which is too long in my opinion when a team is rusty to begin with to start the year. It’s the home opener of the Jay Cutler Era, which means the lakefront will be jacked up with 61,000 of Bill Swerski’s Superfans. And did I mention already the Bears are in must-win mode. I’m still picking the Bears to lose - I thought Ben Rothlisberger was one of the three best QB’s in the league before his clutch win during Week 1 - but I see another close one that goes down to the end of the fourth quarter. Key will be getting a good performance out of Matt Forte, which didn’t happen versus the Packers.
Now for my Week 2 picks, following up a 13-3 performance in the opener. My picks in bold.
Carolina at Atlanta
Minnesota at Detroit
Cincinnati at Green Bay
Houston at Tennessee
Oakland at Kansas City
New England at New York Jets
New Orleans at Philadelphia
St. Louis at Washington
Arizona at Jacksonville
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Seattle at San Francisco
Cleveland at Denver
Pittsburgh at Bears
Baltimore at San Diego
New York Giants at Dallas
Indianapolis at Miami
And my survival team of the week, after using up the Saints last week, is...the Washington Redskins.
1) As much as the Green Bay loss stung - and it felt like a swarm of mosquitoes attacked after that game - the season-ending injury to Brian Urlacher was much more painful. Before the season began, a lot of writers talked about how the middle linebacker was going to have a career year. He was healthy, he was comfortable with Bob Babich as his linebackers coach and he’s surrounded by a pair of guys, Lance Briggs and Pisa Tinoisamoa, who would allow him to roam the middle of the field and make plays. During the first quarter, #54 laid a great hit on Aaron Rodgers, one of those classic Urlacher blows where he just slams into a guy like the train hitting the criminals’ bus in ‘The Fugitive’. But that hit is what probably messed up his wrist, ending his 2009 before it even began. The Bears will be OK without him, since Hunter Hillenmeyer and Nick Roach are serviceable players. But they could have been great with him, and it’s too bad that won’t happen.
2) Offensive play calling was one of the deaths of the 2008 Bears, and it appears to be happening again. Not enough blame was placed on Ron Turner for his horrendous plays in the fourth quarter, which ended up costing the Bears the win. Follow my logic here: After an impressive drive, Bears have 1st-and-Goal from the 5 with 3:48 remaining. Score is 13-12 Packers. What does Turner do? First down he hands the ball to Matt Forte, which makes perfect sense. Gain of one, making it second down on the 4. Note that Forte at this point had now rushed the ball on four consecutive plays. So what’s the second down call? You guessed it, #22 on a toss to the outside, a play that has a history of working roughly 0% of the time. No gain of course, making it third down from the four. Now Turner only has one choice, which is to throw. But Turner decides to call a play-action, which nobody wearing green & gold falls for, and sends only one receiver, Greg Olsen, out on a route. He’s surrounded, ball sails over his head, and now the Bears have to settle for Robbie Gould. A 15-13 lead could have been 20-13 (with a two-point conversion), which of course made a difference when Nate Vasher did his best Richard Pryor impression a minute later. (Get it, he got burned) If Ron Turner is smarter calling plays, the Bears may win that game, even with the late Packer TD.
3) Now onto the main topic of the week, Mr. Jay Cutler. Everybody had a prediction on how his season would unfold, but nobody predicted this. Four picks, including three in the first half, and one on the final drive of the game. Simply put, it was very Rex-like, but with the added disappointment of actual expectations. Some of the picks were the fault of receivers, some were nerves, some were just good defensive plays. And believe me, he’ll bounce back at some point this year, and he better considering the price the team paid for his services. But as Herman Edwards once famously says, ‘You play to win the game.’ As far as I’m concerned, Cutler’s 1:4 TD-to-interception ratio is no big deal compared to his 0-1 record as the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears.
4) It’s been all complaining thus far, so it’s only fair to highlight a few guys who played well Sunday night. The clear #1 is the Prince, Adewale Ogunleye. Showing the speed and power that made him a consistent double-digit sack man earlier this decade, Ogunleye recorded two sacks to go along with five pressures versus the Pack. That kind of pass rush is exactly what the Bears need to succeed this season, because we saw later in the game that they don’t have a secondary that can sit back in coverage if the team chooses to blitz. A second player who shined under the Sunday night lights was wideout Johnny Knox. Despite only making two catches, the emergency #3 receiver - Devin Aromashodu was out with a quad injury - gained 82 yards through the air. That included a 68-yard bomb down the right sideline, where Konx blew by former Heisman winner (and still very fast) Charles Woodson. A go-to deep threat was something the Bears offense lacked in 2008, but if Knox and Devin Hester can continue to make plays on the long ball, it will elevate the offense as a whole.
5) The longer I think about facing Pittsburgh this Sunday, the better I feel. Which is a surprise, considering they are the defending Super Bowl champs and the Bears are already in must-win mode. But the Steelers are on nine-days rest, which is too long in my opinion when a team is rusty to begin with to start the year. It’s the home opener of the Jay Cutler Era, which means the lakefront will be jacked up with 61,000 of Bill Swerski’s Superfans. And did I mention already the Bears are in must-win mode. I’m still picking the Bears to lose - I thought Ben Rothlisberger was one of the three best QB’s in the league before his clutch win during Week 1 - but I see another close one that goes down to the end of the fourth quarter. Key will be getting a good performance out of Matt Forte, which didn’t happen versus the Packers.
Now for my Week 2 picks, following up a 13-3 performance in the opener. My picks in bold.
Carolina at Atlanta
Minnesota at Detroit
Cincinnati at Green Bay
Houston at Tennessee
Oakland at Kansas City
New England at New York Jets
New Orleans at Philadelphia
St. Louis at Washington
Arizona at Jacksonville
Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Seattle at San Francisco
Cleveland at Denver
Pittsburgh at Bears
Baltimore at San Diego
New York Giants at Dallas
Indianapolis at Miami
And my survival team of the week, after using up the Saints last week, is...the Washington Redskins.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Scheduled mess
There are two ways to examine the Bears' 2009-10 schedule. It's either the easiest in the league, as the average winning percentage of their opponents (.414) states. Or it is Darren Sproles-like, sneaky good, filled with teams that are capable of knocking the Bears off on any given Sunday. Opinions in the Windy City change as often as the weather does, and that greatly affects how to evaluate the squad. So what is the truth? There's no way to know until the games kick off.
2009 Chicago Bears schedule
On paper (or in this case, on a computer screen), the slate is tough but not impossible. Back-to-back national TV games kick things off, and three of the final four are against NFC North foes. Games against all four conference championship finalists (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Arizona and Philadelphia) are as challenging an advanced algebra degree, while the two versus the Lions and matchups with Browns and Rams are first-grade arithmetic easy. (Ex: Lions + Bears = Oh my, two wins!) Anywhere between seven and 12 wins have been mentioned, depending on what people think of the other two contenders (Minnesota and Green Bay) in the NFC North.
Yet there's one thing to remember when examining the Bears schedule: there is one constant - the Bears. If Jay Cutler plays great and the defense returns to a dominant form, it doesn't matter who is on the opposing sideline. Conversely, if Matt Forte goes down week 1 with an injury and the holes in the pass defense never get plugged, the schedule looks a lot tougher. Back on Tax Day, when the slate was first released, I predicted an 11-5 record. Now, with the season only a few days away, I'll go with the same mark. Losses will take place in weeks 2 (Pittsburgh), 7 (Atlanta), 12 (Philadelphia), 13 (Minnesota) and 15 (Baltimore). The record will be good enough to win the NFC North and be the #2 seed in the NFC come playoff time.
Hope I’m write, probably am wrong, but really who cares. It’s football season!
Now it's time for my weekly picks. Two years ago, I went 165-102, which is good but not great. Then, like the Jaguars, Browns and Cowboys, I took a step back in 2008. A record of 160-107 last season didn't sit well wit me over the summer, so I'm back to do better in '09. Here's who I have in the opening weekend.
My pick in bold
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Miami at Atlanta
Denver at Cincinnati
Minnesota at Cleveland
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Detroit at New Orleans
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Philadelphia at Carolina
Kansas City at Baltimore
NY Jets at Houston
Washington at NY Giants
San Francisco at Arizona
St. Louis at Seattle
Bears at Green Bay
Buffalo at New England
San Diego at Oakland
I've also decided to bring back my survival pool, where I will pick one guaranteed winner each week, with the catch being that you can only pick a team once. This week's pick is...the New Orleans Saints.
2009 Chicago Bears schedule
On paper (or in this case, on a computer screen), the slate is tough but not impossible. Back-to-back national TV games kick things off, and three of the final four are against NFC North foes. Games against all four conference championship finalists (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Arizona and Philadelphia) are as challenging an advanced algebra degree, while the two versus the Lions and matchups with Browns and Rams are first-grade arithmetic easy. (Ex: Lions + Bears = Oh my, two wins!) Anywhere between seven and 12 wins have been mentioned, depending on what people think of the other two contenders (Minnesota and Green Bay) in the NFC North.
Yet there's one thing to remember when examining the Bears schedule: there is one constant - the Bears. If Jay Cutler plays great and the defense returns to a dominant form, it doesn't matter who is on the opposing sideline. Conversely, if Matt Forte goes down week 1 with an injury and the holes in the pass defense never get plugged, the schedule looks a lot tougher. Back on Tax Day, when the slate was first released, I predicted an 11-5 record. Now, with the season only a few days away, I'll go with the same mark. Losses will take place in weeks 2 (Pittsburgh), 7 (Atlanta), 12 (Philadelphia), 13 (Minnesota) and 15 (Baltimore). The record will be good enough to win the NFC North and be the #2 seed in the NFC come playoff time.
Hope I’m write, probably am wrong, but really who cares. It’s football season!
Now it's time for my weekly picks. Two years ago, I went 165-102, which is good but not great. Then, like the Jaguars, Browns and Cowboys, I took a step back in 2008. A record of 160-107 last season didn't sit well wit me over the summer, so I'm back to do better in '09. Here's who I have in the opening weekend.
My pick in bold
Tennessee at Pittsburgh
Miami at Atlanta
Denver at Cincinnati
Minnesota at Cleveland
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Detroit at New Orleans
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Philadelphia at Carolina
Kansas City at Baltimore
NY Jets at Houston
Washington at NY Giants
San Francisco at Arizona
St. Louis at Seattle
Bears at Green Bay
Buffalo at New England
San Diego at Oakland
I've also decided to bring back my survival pool, where I will pick one guaranteed winner each week, with the catch being that you can only pick a team once. This week's pick is...the New Orleans Saints.
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