November 4 will define Bears

Sunday starts a tough four-game stretch for the Bears: home versus defending NFC Champ Arizona, at San Francisco on a Thursday night, home versus the other team in last January’s NFC Championship game, Philadelphia, on a Sunday night, and then a trip up to the Metrodome to face the first place Vikings. Four games, four challenges, but five possible outcomes for the Bears.

If the team runs the table (highly unlikely), they will certainly make the playoffs and may even win the NFC North. A 5-0 November, including last Sunday’s win versus Cleveland, would quiet all the Jay Cutler trade doubters…at least until the first loss in December. And there’s no doubt that the entire coaching staff would return next season, bar an epic collapse during the season’s final weeks.

Going 3-1 during the stretch would be an accomplishment as well. Considering the two thought-to-be tough stretches of the schedule at the start of the year were the first three games (at Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Seattle, which the Bears went 2-1) and this month, it would look good for Cutler and coach Lovie Smith’s resume that they navigated through each of them successfully. Assuming the Bears handle their business in December/January (vs. St. Louis, vs. Green Bay, at Baltimore, vs. Minnesota on Monday night and at Detroit, the team would play in the post-season.

I’d argue the most probable scenario is a 2-2 record, which would leave the Bears exactly where they stand right now - in the middle of the pack in the NFC. Considering of their three losses, two have come on nationally-telivised night games, losses to the 49ers and Eagles seem likely. That would mean though that the Bears beat Minnesota on November 29, which would make more than a couple of people smile for a variety of reasons. Like with the previous route, a 2-2 record would mean the December stretch is given extra importance.

A 1-3 record and the season’s likely over. It seems highly unlikely that the Bears could enter December at 5-6 and make the playoffs. Unless the one win is against the Vikings, combined with more Minnesota losses and an impressive end of season run, it will mark three consecutive playoff-less seasons following the Super Bowl appearance in 2007. So far, the common theme in all the losses for the Bears this season has been turnovers. If that continues, major questions will arise about why the Cutler trade was made in the first place.

Finally, there is 0-4. Lovie Smith, Ron Turner and the rest of the coaching staff is toast. So is much of the defense, which is getting up there in age. GM Jerry Angelo could be updating his resume as well if anybody in the McCaskey family is even paying attention at this point. Major criticism will land at the feet of Cutler, Matt Forte and all the other under-performers in 2009, especially since the Bears don’t have a draft pick in the first two rounds in next April’s draft.

So how’s it going to go? Not to seem predictable, but I’m guessing based on how the season has gone, 2-2 seems most likely. With the exception of the Cincinnati game, the Bears seem to play their opponents well. Against good teams - Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta - they play well and the game goes down to the wire. Against bad teams - Detroit, Cleveland - they don’t play particularly well, but still are able to get the job done. Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all good or really good teams, ones that will require the Bears to play as well as they have all season. I still say the December/January schedule sets up well, with home games against division rivals as well as contents with the pathetic Rams and Lions. Going 2-2 in November may not be preferable, but it doesn’t kill the Bears season.

Now of course are my Week 9 picks, with winners in bold.


Washington at Atlanta

Arizona at Chicago

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Houston at Indianapolis

Miami at New England

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Kansas City at Jacksonville

Carolina at New Orleans

Detroit at Seattle

San Diego at New York Giants

Tennessee at San Francisco

Dallas at Philadelphia

Pittsburgh at Denver

Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 76-40