Friday, January 22, 2010

Where's the drama?

I want to be excited for this Sunday's NFL games. Championship Sunday isn't a normal NFL weekend, but it's as close to normal we'll have for the next eight mounts. So savor it while it's here, right? I wish. Instead, the following six facts have me fearing the worst:
  • Jets 24, Bengals 14
  • Cowboys 34, Eagles 14
  • Ravens 33, Patriots 14
  • Saints 45, Cardinals 14
  • Colts 20, Ravens 3
  • Vikings 34, Cowboys 3
Only two of the eight playoff games this year have been worth watching, which doesn't produce good odds that Sunday's will be must-see TV. There's a better chance Stephen Colbert actually competes in Vancouver this February than seeing two games on Sunday that come down to the final minutes. Do I want this to happen? Of course. Do I think it will happen? Not a chance.

So then the question becomes, Which game will be the blowout? The NFC game features the conference's 1 and 2 seeds, meaning it's expected to be a close game. Then again, the road team in that matchup has struggled outside of their building for the past month. In the AFC, it's a 1 seed with a future Hall-of-Fame QB versus a 5 seed with a rookie under center, which has the makings of a lopsided score. But that game features two physical defenses, ones that will make sure nothing gets out of hand.

In the past, championship weekend has always been a bit anti-climactic. Until last year's game, which was a nine-point Pittsburgh victory, only three AFC championship games had been decided by ten points or less since 1999. Only one of those, the 2007 Colts-Patriots game, came down to the final minutes. The NFC title game has been a little better. Last year's Cardinals-Eagles game was exciting down the stretch, and 2008's Giants-Packers matchup was an OT thriller. But before that, mostly snoozefests. While the Super Bowl has had a lot of all-time classics over the past decade, surprisingly the championship games have not.

Here are my predictions:

Jets at Colts

To beat Indianapolis, a team has to run the ball to keep Peyton Manning off the field, while at the same time containing the Colts high-powered offense. The Jets ran the ball better than anybody all season and have a defense that stopped San Diego dead in their tracks a week ago. I smell an upset. New York also knows they can beat Indy, having done in just one month ago when Jim Caldwell rested his starters. With a big game from Thomas Jones, a smart game from Mark Sanchez and the NY defense somehow baiting Manning into throwing a costly pick, the upset smell is getting stronger. A team that played on Wild Card weekend has made it to the Super Bowl four consecutive years. Make it five. Jets 23, Colts 18

Vikings at Saints

Minnesota's offense looked damn good on Sunday versus the Cowboys. They scored 34 points, rolled up 323 yards and didn't turn the ball over once. All of that was upended by what the Saints did against Arizona. New Orleans had 45 points, 418 points and also were turnover-free. Point is, it's going to take a monster effort from Favre, Peterson and the rest of the Minnesota offense to win at the Superdome on Sunday. With that crowd noise and with the way Drew Brees can pick apart a defense like Billy Madison playing dodgeball against first graders, I find it hard to believe that Brad Childress can come up with a gameplan to stop them. Saints 35, Vikings 17

Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 170-94

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