What's Cutler got to do with the Cubs?

Some lessons are learned the easy way: you hear advice, you acknowledge it, lesson learned. Others aren't so simple. It's the old hand-in-the-fire cliche, that you have to experience the negative to learn the lesson.

A year ago today, the Bears traded Kyle Orton and a pair of first round picks to Denver for Jay Cutler and a third. The entire city of Chicago celebrated, thinking that the Bears had finally landed a top-flight quarterback that could lead them to the Super Bowl. In my 22 years living in this city, here is how I rank the excitement for athletes arrivals: 3) Mark Prior as a rookie, 2001 2) Jay Culer via trade, 2009 1) Michael Jordan's first comeback, 1995. That's high company.

As we found out, Cutler wasn't everything we'd hoped. The QB led the NFL in interceptions, especially in the bone-headed variety. Fans were wishing that Rex Grossman was still under center...midway through the first game of the season. It was not what fans had expected on April 2, 2009.

Hopes went up, actual results came crashing down. Thankfully, I've learned my lesson, and won't be repeating that mistake. So with that, here's my Cubs preview for 2010:

(Note: Not doing a full baseball preview, because honestly I didn't follow much of the offseason for the other 29 MLB teams.)

When I saw the Cubs this spring in Arizona, a few things jumped out at me. One, that a bunch of guys (Soriano, Big Z, Soto) seemed to be in better shape than they were in 2009. Two, that the team seemed to be having more fun than they did last year. And three, they seem to be a faster all-around team than I've seen since 2003.

A slimmed-down Geovany Soto (photo by me)

Obviously all three of those things are positives. So too is that they will depart Arizona fairly healthy. Dumping offseason mistake from last winter, namely Meltdown Bradley and Kevin Gregg, helps a lot. And maybe another few months under the belt of youngsters like Randy Wells, Jeff Samardzija and Sean Marshall will help out.

Then again, this is the Cubs we're talking about. Nothing ever goes as planned, from injuries to performance to overall buzz around the team. Last year was supposed to be the year, but then Aramis Ramirez tore his shoulder, Soriano couldn't walk (both in the sense of taking four balls and in just moving one foot in front of the other) and the team falls apart. This season expectations are lowered (most people have them projected around 80 wins), but the pressure from fans is still present. The Rickets family is in year one, Lou is in his final year, and there's still that other year still hanging over the team like a kippah: 1908.

If the Cubs are going to be a factor this year, they have to start strong. They don't play any of the 2009 NL playoff teams until May 17 (when they begin a stretch of playing 11 games versus all the postseason teams, the Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers AND Cardinals, in a 14-day span) and have a good dose of the league's bottom-feeders over those first seven weeks. Of course staying healthy will be key, and it still remains to be seen if Soto's new shape will help him turn back to his '08 version, if new CF Marlon Byrd is the real deal, if Kouske can start well and keep it up the entire year, if Zambrano can live up to his $15 million/year contract, if the bullpen can hold leads, if Marmol can close consistently, plus a few speed bumps still unknown.

Zambrano warming up (photo by me)

I hate making predictions about any baseball team, because the season is so long and there are countless numbers of things that can change between April 5 and October 30. I hate making predictions about the Cubs, because it's impossible for me to not think with my heart instead of my head. So I won't give any projected win-loss numbers or place in the standings or playoff projections. Just know this: If Soriano, Ramriez and Lee combine for a total of (at least) 415 games played; and if Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster and Wells combine for (at least) 55 wins; and if the bullpen has a cumulative ERA of under 4, things will be good on the North Side.

If not, well at least Jay Cutler will be back under center for the Bears in September.

Four years, four teams

In the past 365 days I've worked about seven different jobs, graduated from college and (in my opinion) improved as a writer more than ever before. Why is this noteworthy? Because today is the fourth anniversary of the Hot Dog Guy and I couldn't be prouder of the blog, though I wish I had more time to actually write. It is here where I am able to vent about sports, complain about my favorite teams, practice my writing and not have to limit myself to a word count, structure the writing to a specific style or be at the mercy of a copy editor.

The point of the blog at first was to not only to be a place to give sports opinions, but also to document my time as a Wrigley Field vendor. That stopped quickly when I realized it was too difficult to fairly describe all the craziness that goes on at the corner of Clark & Addison. But in its place, I hope that the blog has been a place to read entertaining and enlighting thoughts on the Bears, Cubs, Bulls and the rest of sports. I've tried to make it personal, giving my thoughts and opinions on matters, even though I realize most people don't care.

My first ever post (outside of a brief into) broke down the Final 4 in Indy. That 2006 group featured a pair of players - Joakim Noah of Florida and Tyrus Thomas of LSU - who would go on to be discussed at length here on the blog.

Now, four years later, it's time to do it again. Four college basketball teams head to Naptown (Called that by locals because of the third of the city's five syllables, Indi-a-NAP-o-lis. Called that by out-of-towners because the most interesting thing to do there is take a nap) with dreams of cutting down the net. At the bottom of the post I'll offer my preview, but before that, I'd like to review the first two weekend of the tournament while honoring a Chicago institution leaving the airways soon, At the Movies.

Thumbs Up: The dramatics - Determining the best game of this tournament is like determining the most attractive Bond girl; there are tons of choices to make an argument for. Xavier-Kansas State, No. Iowa-Kansas, Michigan St.-Maryland, Tennessee-Ohio St., Murray St.-Vanderbilt, Villanova-Robert Morris, plus all four of the Elite 8 games and some others I can't think of off the top of my head. It's not a surprise, based on the regular season we had, that the tourney was so exciting. Without a dominant team everybody was closer in the pack of 65, making for competition all over the bracket.

Thumbs Down: The favorites - This isn't a bad thing by any means, but it's always a bit disappointing to realize the team's atop the rankings all year where frauds in a way. No doubt teams like Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Ohio State where all very good and deserving of their seed, but they all had major weaknesses that were exposed in the tournament. The Jayhawks couldn't score when Sherron Collins had a poor game. The Wildcats were too young and couldn't hit shots (both from 3 and free). The Orange didn't have a scorer to give the ball to at crunch time. And the Buckeyes had no depth. All of these things were reasons these teams went home early.

Thumbs Up: Gus Johnson & Bill Raftery - This is both an up and a down. Up because Gus and Raft are the two best in the business when it comes to college hoops, the two guys who understand the energy and excitement that is March. Down because CBS has neither of them calling the Final Four. Gus increases his intensity along with the games, reaching a crescendo as the minutes start falling towards zero. Just watch this highlight package from KSU-Xavier. The entire clip is classic Gus, but pay close attention at 1:25 when Jordan Crawford hits his game-tying three from the cancer ribbon, about 35 feet from the basket. "Crawford at 8, Crawford's got to hurry, up, OHHHHHHH, HE TIED IT!!" Raftery amps up the excitement as the game goes along as well, but he describes the game as a fan would, only using much more classic and elegant language, such as "Onions" and "A little kiss off the window." More announcers should follow the lead of these two and add some kick to their commentary.

Thumbs Down: The commercials - OK, so this is a natural complaint when you watch nearly 80 hours (approximation) of basketball over a two-week span. But if I see Luke Wilson talking about maps, some airport guys yelling about bag fees or have to watch another couple talk about how Lowe's saved their garden, I might throw a brick through my television.

Thumbs Up: My picks - I'm in first place in both my pools. I have two of my Final 4 remaining. And nobody has their National Champ left. So it looks good. From the start I loved Duke's road to Indy, especially because I was confident that the two seed in that region (Vilanova) would get bounced early. A lot of people took Baylor, thinking their athleticism would cause the Blue Devils some problems, but I liked the edge in the backcourt for Duke. And out East I got lucky with West Virginia, who I picked at the start because I liked their D, then got worried because of how well Kentucky was playing, then was bailed out because the Wildcats played their worst game of the season.

Thumbs Down: My picks - Having two Final 4 picks correct means I also had two wrong. That's not the failure part. It's the fact that I should have known better than picking Kansas and Syracuse to win their regions. A few years ago, I said I'd never take a Bill Self-coached team. Then they win the title in '08, come back this year with (on paper) the strongest team and I get suckered in again. But that's not it. I also say every year I won't pick the favorite, because they are unlikely to win and it puts me in competition with too many people who don't follow college hoops at all. Yet I ignore all of that and go with the Jayhawks and Orange, the Bill Self coached team and the two favorites to cut down the nets. There's no way I would have chosen Michigan State and Butler, but I should have known better than what I did.

Now it's prediction time, and these two games are (obviously) hard to figure out. There's no fluke in this group, no happy to be there squad. The first game matches the two 5-seeds, Butler and Michigan State. A lot of people are hopping on the Tom Izzo bandwagon, and for good reason. The Spartans play great team basketball, and six Final 4's in 12 years is nothing to slouch about. But I like the Bulldogs, who play equally good defense and have more scorers. It will be a close one, but I'll say Butler 74, Sparty 70. The nightcap is even more intriguing, with the physical Mountaineers taking on the tough but athletic Dukies. Duke's big guys - Thomas, Zubek and the Plumlees - were the difference in the Elite 8 win against Baylor, while it was the outside shooting of WVU that carried them over Kentucky. Each will need repeat performances, but I like Coach K's group, barely. Kyle Syngler won't be held without a field goal again, and the Duke guards are too good when their bigs are playing well. Duke 79, West Virginia 77.

Rock, Chalk Picks

It may not be considered 'the holiday season' to most, but to sports fans like myself, this is truly the most wonderful time of the year. March Madness is the definition of perfection, a splendid combination of competition, drama, action, and gambling. I say the two best days of the year are the two first days of the NCAA Tournament, when 16 games span 12-or-so hours each day. Each year, I reserve the days to do absolutely nothing other than watching basketball. And each year, I thank myself for being so smart.

This year's tournament offers much of the normal confusion that every other year provides. Nobody knows who will be the sleeper teams that sneak into the second weekend or which high seed (high seed means low number means better team, which I find confusing every year) will loose focus and get bounced in round one. But this year has the added wrinkle of the selection committee giving the toughest regions to the nation's two best teams. Makes it tough when four of the countries five best teams (Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio St. and West Virginia) are split into two regions (Midwest and East).

Regardless of the confusion, America has persevered and filled out their brackets. And of course I am among them. So here are my picks for the 2010 NCAA Tournament, which I would recommend you not copy if you'd like to win money come early-April. (You can see my 2009, 2008 and 2007 picks here, though I have no clue why that would interest you.)

MIDWEST

1-Kansas over 16- Lehigh
9- No. Iowa over 8- UNLV
5- Michigan St. over 12- New Mexico St.
4- Maryland over 13- Houston
11- San Diego St. over 6- Tennessee
3- Georgetown over 14- Ohio
7- Oklahoma St. over 10- Georgia Tech
2- Ohio St. over 15- UC Santa Barbra

1- Kansas over 9- No. Iowa
4- Maryland over 5- Michigan St.
3- Georgetown over 11- San Diego St.
2- Ohio St. over 7- Oklahoma St.

1- Kansas over 4- Maryland
3- Georgetown over 2- Ohio St.

1- Kansas over 3- Georgetown

Analysis: This is as tough of a region that a No. 1 overall seed has received in a long, long time. I think the Jayhawks are clearly the best team, but I wouldn't be shocked if they are knocked off by the 2, 3, 4 or 5 seeds. And as recently as two years ago, Bill Self-coached teams couldn't be trusted to win when it really counts. But they cut down the nets in 2008 and this years team, with Collins, Aldrich, Henrey, the Morris twins and a deep bench, won't be halted by a road scattered with land mines.

WEST

1- Syracuse over 16- Vermont
8- Gonzaga over 9- Florida St.
12- UTEP over 5- Butler
4- Vanderbilt over 13- Murray St.
5- Xavier over 11- Minnesota
3- Pittsburgh over 14- Oakland
7- BYU over 10- Florida
2- Kansas St. over 15- North Texas

1- Syracuse over 8- Gonzaga
12- UTEP over 4- Vanderbilt
5- Xavier over 3- Pittsburgh
7- BYU over 2- Kansas St.

1- Syracuse over 12- UTEP
7- BYU over 5- Xavier

1- Syracuse over 7- BYU

Analysis: A lot of upsets in the wild, wild west, though in the end I still like the top seeded Orange. BYU is an exciting team to watch and will have the home-court advantage in Salt Lake City if they make it to the second weekend. UTEP has some great skill, and Xavier always playes well in March. But when it's all decided, Syracuse and their famed 2-3 zone will be too much for the challengers.

EAST

1- Kentucky over 16- East Tennessee St.
9- Wake Forest over 8- Texas
12- Cornell over 5- Temple
4- Wisconsin over 13- Wofford
6- Marquette over 11- Washington
3- New Mexico over 14- Montana
10- Missouri over 7- Clemson
2- West Virginia over 15- Morgan St.

1- Kentucky over 9- Wake Forest
4- Wisconsin over 12- Cornell
6- Marquette over 3- New Mexico
2- West Virginia over 10- Missouri

1- Kentucky over 4- Wisconsin
2- West Virginia over 6- Marquette

2- West Virginia over 1- Kentucky

Analysis: No doubt that Kentucky has the talent. The 'Cats may have four future Lottery picks on their roster and a coach who had made multiple (vacated) Final Four trips. But I don't think they match up well with the Mountaineers, who have comprable talent and are much tougher than UK is. I also think the bracket sets up well for WVU, who could face a team (Marquette) they are familiar with from conference play in the Sweet 16.

SOUTH

1-Duke over 16- Arkansas Pine-Bluff
9- Louisville over 8- California
5- Texas A&M over 12- Utah St.
13- Siena over 4- Purdue
6- Notre Dame over 11- Old Dominion
3- Baylor over 14- Sam Houston St.
7- Richmond over 10- St. Mary's
2- Villanova over 15- Robert Morris

1- Duke over 9- Louisville
5- Texas A&M over 13- Siena
3- Baylor over 6- Notre Dame
2- Villanova over 7- Richmond

1- Duke over 5- Texas A&M
3- Baylor over 2- Villanova

1- Duke over 3- Baylor

Analysis: No, you didn't mistakenly click on Dickie V's bracket; I am picking Duke. Why? They have the second-best efficiency rating on KenPom, which in the past has done a great job of projecting NCAA Tournament winners. And they have talented guards and good size, two things I look for in March. They don't match up well with Villanova, who (I correctly predicted) bounced them from the Dance in 2009. But I see Baylor knocking off the 'Cats, giving Coach K the chance to return to the Final Four.

FINAL FOUR

1- Kansas over 1- Syracuse
1- Duke over 2- West Virginia

1- Kansas over 1- Duke

Analysis: Every year I write 'Don't take the favorite'. And every year, I seem to come up short. So this year, I'm going with the best team. I don't have 100% confidence in the Jayhawks and could easily see at least five other teams (the three other F4 teams, Kentucky and Ohio St.) cutting the nets down in early-April. But Kansas seems to have everything a champion needs, and they are my title pick for 2010.

Sunshine and baseball

I am really bad at this whole blogging thing, and for that I apologize. It's not like I'm especially busy, there really is no excuse for my lack of posts.

Anyways, tomorrow I head out on a vacation. This is noteworthy for multiple reasons. One, it will mark the first time in a year since I'll be leaving the state of Illinois (except for 3 hours in Missouri two weeks ago, which deserves its own post). Two, because I'm going somewhere that's 75 and sunny, two descriptions that can't accompany Evanston, Ill. in February. And three, because for the first time in my life, I am going to see the Cubs in spring training as they prepare for the 2010 season.

Tomorrow morning, my dad and I will board a plane to Phoenix. Tomorrow afternoon, I'll be in the stands of Hohokam Stadium in Mesa, AZ, watching the North Siders take on the Oakland A's in the first game of the year. We'll be there each of the next two days as well, soaking in the sun, watching the team and looking forward to (hopefully) an enjoyable year at the Friendly Confines.

It won't be all fun and games though. There's always a lot of questions surrounding the Cubs, and this year is no different. Here are 10 that I'm hoping to find answers to over the next three days:

1. The number one priority for the Cubs, like with every MLB team, is health. We know Ted Lilly is out for a while, but can guys like Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Ryan Dempster stay in one piece for the next seven months?
2. How does new center fielder Marlon Byrd look? If the answer is rhymes with Shilton Cradley or Beed Rohnson, the team is in trouble.
3. There's been a bunch of buzz about my man Carlos Zambrano, who apparently has lost a lot of weight since the end of 2009. Can he still bring the heat, and more importantly, will the new shape he's in slow down his home run swing? (Seriously, the most important thing for Z is consistency. Always has been, always will be.)
4. Is Carlos Marmol ready to be a full-time closer? And if so, who will step up to be the 8th inning guy? (Did anybody ever check to see if Jim Hendry suffered some sort of brain damage in the hours before he made the trade in the winter of 2008 for Kevin Gregg?)
   
5. Derrek Lee had a great year last season. Is it too much to expect that he can duplicate it when he's going to be 35 in September (and is entering the final year of his contract)?
   
6. Speaking of final years, will Lou Piniella change anything knowing this is likely his last chance as skipper to win a championship?
7. I've heard great things about top prospects Josh Vitters and Starlin Castro, but can the two live up to the hype and make the big league roster? And do the Cubs have any young arms that can give a jolt to the pitching staff?
8. Two third-year players have big pressure on them in 2010. No player frustrates me more than Kouske Fukudome. Has the right fielder figured out a way to propel his awesome April's into a full-year of solid play? And did Geo Soto finally realize he can't play catcher at 275 pounds?
   
9. Who is going to play second base? Jeff Baker is solid, but shouldn't play every day. Same goes for Mike Fontenot. Somebody needs to step up or the cries for Mark DeRosa will keep getting louder.
10. Finally, do they sell Old Style in Mesa? Is there ivy on the outfield walls? Can I take the Red Line to the stadium? Will they fly a W flag following a victory? Can it be April 12 yet?
    

Scenes from the beat

So for the past few weeks - since early-January - I've been covering high school basketball games for the Chicago Sun-Times and their prep sports website, YourSeason.com. You can see some of my stories here, here and here. (E-mail me if you want more.)

In my time on the beat I've seen players headed to Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Cal and Notre Dame, as well as some of the top uncommitted players in the area. I've covered some really close and intense games, and was even able to write about Evanston-New Trier without my allegiances pouring into my story. The experience has been very educational, and I think I've improved my writing a lot, especially filing stories on tight deadlines.

The experience has also been quite hilarious at times. This isn't much of a surprise. These are 16, 17 and 18 year-old kids who have a lot of pressure on them and take the game of basketball very seriously, but at the same time, want to enjoy themselves. So here, for your enjoyment, are just some of the things I've seen on the high school basketball beat:

• It's a custom at basketball games for the cheerleaders to have a little competition of their own. One team's cheerleaders will do a routine, then their opponents will try to match or top that. The act is great for the fans of the respective schools to support their team, getting the entire crowd into a frenzy. At the Evanston-Waukegan game I covered, the custom almost resulted in a fight. Halfway through the fourth quarter, with the Bulldogs holding a three point lead, the sold-out gym was going nuts. One team took a timeout, and one of the ETHS cheerleaders began to do backflips. Flip after flip after flip, and by the time the TO was over, she had gone the entire length of the floor, all 94 feet. When she wound up on the other baseline, directly in front of the Waukegan cheerleaders (and the media table, where I was sitting), the Evanston girl spread her arms out and yelled "What now!" The orange-and-blue clad crowd was going nuts, the PA system was banging some type of hip-hop, and the Waukegan cheerleaders wanted to respond. But the game was about to resume. That didn't stop one girl. She had to be restrained by one of her teammates from either fighting the Evanston cheerer or attempting to do the backflip feat of her own.

• I covered the quarterfinals - all four games - of the Chicago Public League girls tournament. None of the contests were very competitive, but this assignment was noteworthy for two reasons: 1- It was held at Attack Athletics, which is the gym that Pres. Obama balled at on election day last November. It's owned and run by Tim Grover, who I got to meet and talk with a little bit. (Google the name if you don't know why that's really exciting.) 2- This was the song that they used for player introductions for all four games. You couldn't measure how wide my smile was every time this was played.

• At Maine South, I sat in the bleachers because they didn't have a press table. No big deal, that's fairly common in high school gyms. When halftime came, I stood to stretch my legs and must have caught the attention of the two 11-year olds sitting an aisle next to me. They asked if I was writing about the game, and if so, for what newspaper. I told them the Sun-Times and wrote down my name, and they each said they would check the next days paper for it. That's cool. Then they asked me which team I was rooting for. I tried explaining that I didn't care who won, only that it was an interesting game that ended fairly quickly. This didn't satisfy them. I repeated that I didn't have a preference between the schools, especially because I'd attended Evanston, a conference rivals to both squads. Finally one of the kids informed me his older brother was the shooting guard for Maine South. My response was that I hope your bro has a great game and that I can write about him for the paper. This put a smile on their faces and stopped the Q&A. (The guard wound up not playing very well and not earning a mention in the article.)
  

• Other tight songs that I hadn't heard for a good 10 years before I began covering high school hoops: Hit Em High (heard at Lake Forest), Gettin Jiggy With It (heard at Glenbrook North) and Breathe, Stretch, Shake (OK, that's only been like five years, but still funny. Heard at New Trier).

• My #1 best story: It was the boys Public League playoffs, with the No. 3 team in the area, Foreman, versus the high school that produced Kevin Garrnett and Ronnie Fields, Farragut. The fourth quarter had just started, and the game was physical. Whistles about once-a-minute physical. (For those of you who don't know, winning the Public League Title is equally, if not more important, to city schools than winning the state title is. Schools would rather be the best in Chicago than best in all of Illinois.) So a Formean player grabs a rebound, is bumped by a Farragut player, and the Foreman player responds with a shove. Whistle blows, but the kids are still in each other's faces. Benches storm the court, refs and coaches try to break it up, even plenty of fans ran out into the middle of the action. I seriously thought there was going to be a European hooligan-esque brawl right in the middle of this gym on Chicago's Northwest side. Chicago Public School reps are on the microphone, telling people to get off the court or there could be a forfeit. Then out of nowhere, the only kid wearing a basketball uniform that wasn't in the middle of the fight walks right by me. His right arm is in a cast and obviously isn't able to play. This kid is walking at a normal pace, unlike everybody else who sprinted onto the court. And also unlike everybody else, this kid is holding with his left hand a folding chair, likely the very chair he'd been sitting on for the past hour on the bench. I had no clue if he was going to pull a Young Buck on somebody or if he just wanted to sit closer to the action. All I know is this kid looked as calm as can be, walking into the middle of a brawl with one arm in a cast and the other holding a chair. I couldn't help but crack up after seeing that. (Nobody got hurt, nobody got ejected and the game resumed after like three minutes. I never got to find out what the chair kid was going to do, because the fight was broken up by the time he made it to the scene.)
  

Super pick

Since 2001, there have only been two Super Bowls that I would consider 'boring'. The Bucs-Raiders game was a snoozer from the start, mainly because Tampa knew what Oakland was doing on offense and there was nothing competitive for the entire 60 minutes. And the Steelers-Seahawks game was a downer, mainly because the refs took too much control of the action. Other than that, the season's final game have ranged from good (Bears-Colts) to great (Patriots-Panthers) to all-time classic (Steelers-Cardinals).

That has me encouraged. I wrote two weeks ago that conference championship games are not as close as they should be. Super Bowls are the opposite. At one point, football was the afterthought to the commercials and hype. Now everybody knows that the game will be still close in the fourth quarter. Add in two explosive offenses, and this Sunday is everything a championship game is supposed to be.

Now there's no doubt the American public sides with the Saints. People love the underdog, and it's hard to find a better underdog than one that was practically drowned by its own government five years ago. To think about what took place during Hurricane Katrina and what the people of New Orleans had to endure, it truly was the lowest of the lows. So it's only fair to see them reach the highest of the highs. Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Pierre Thomas and the rest of the Saints offense can light up a scoreboard like few other groups in NFL history, and the N.O. defense has shown it's talented enough to force turnovers and make stops when needed.

That being said, I'm taking the Colts and not thinking twice about it. I made the mistake of picking Indy to lose both against the Ravens and Jets...how'd that turn out for me? Even if Dwight Freeney doesn't play, it's going to impossible for the Saints to contain Peyton Manning and Co. And while it's guaranteed that #18 will do something that will make jaws drop lower than the Bears' defensive coordinator standards, I see this game playing out a lot like Super Bowl XLI, when the Colts topped the Bears. The Saints defense, especially Darren Sharper, is going to try to limit the big plays. So watch for a lot of quick passes and draws, with Donald Brown taking the Domminic Rhodes role. It's too bad, because it would be cool to see New Orleans win one. But at least it should be a good game.

Colts 33, Saints 28

Be lucky I didn't try 44 questions

Ten Super Bowl-related questions that I'd like responses to before next Sunday's big game.

1. Is there anybody out there that doesn't bleed purple and gold who was disappointed with how the NFC Championship game ended?
2. Do the Jets win that game if they stop Peyton and the Colts from scoring at the end of the second quarter? And in a related note, has anybody made sure Peyton is human and not some sort of robot?
3. What will the crowd be like in Miami? I'd expect most fans without rooting interests will side with the Saints. But I don't know how many people from New Orleans or Indy will be making the trip to South Florida.
4. Back to the NFC game - How can Favre make that throw? I never played quarterback in any type of organized setting, but even I know that you're never supposed to throw across your body when rolling out. As my friend Brian - a die-hard Saints fan - put it earlier this week, we waited all season, but we knew the old Brett Favre was bound to show up.
5. Has Adrian Peterson ever heard of wrapping up the ball with both hands?
6. Who makes the decisions on the halftime performer for the Super Bowl and why doesn't anybody with some media standing question this person? The Who. Seriously, that was the best you could think of? A British band who was inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in 1990. Why not go with somebody who is popular now, an artist who can resonate with NFL fans of multiple generations?
7. If they ever listened to my last suggestion, wouldn't a set list of these four songs be awesome for next year's big game? 1) You could have been anywhere in the world but you're hear with me - 2) Who you know fresher than Hov, riddle me that - 3) Fresh out the frying pan into the fryer I be the music biz #1 supplier - 4) You feelin like you runnin huh, now you know how we feel
8. Where will Peyton Manning rank amongst the all-time greats if he dominates another big game?
9. When showing highlights of the last Colts Super Bowl - and the last SB in Miami - can CBS just limit it to Devin Hester's brilliant beginning?
10. If the Saints win, would the city of New Orleans be able to handle a Super Bowl parade for the beloved team and Mardi Gras in the span of a week-and-a-half? (Mardi Gras is on Feb. 16)
    

Winning out west

When the Bulls began their annual Disney on Ice road trip with losses to the Warriors and Clippers, nobody blinked an eye. Ever since the Dynasty ended in 1998, the West Coast has been to the Bulls' personal land of the loss. The team went years without winning a game west of Minneapolis, always struggling on the circus trip at the start of the season and this trip right before the All-Star break. (Proof - From 1999-00 through 2008-09, the Bulls went 9-56 on the circus trip) Even in playoff seasons - take last year for example - it was always a United Center-friendly second half push that elevated the Bulls into the East's top eight.

Well it looks like the push is starting early in 2010. The Bulls have rattled off three consecutive road victories following the two California losses, defeating the Suns in Phoenix, the Rockets in Houston and most recently, the Spurs in San Antonio. That's three good wins in four days, a streak that has the team thinking playoffs once again. (They are currently seventh in the East) Derrick Rose is playing the best ball of his career right now and has a good chance to be the first Bull to play on All-Star Sunday since Mike and Scottie 12 years ago. Joakim Noah and Brad Miller have held down the post, Kirk Hinrich has made a successful return to the starting lineup and Luol Deng has shown why the team wouldn't part with him two summers ago for the chance to acquire Kobe Bryant.



Suddenly the Bulls fans no longer have only this summer's free agency period to look forward to; there's actual basketball to divert attention. (As for free agency, I still say Chris Bosh should be priority No. 1, D.Wade 2 and Joe Johnson 3) If Rose keeps playing at this level, if Deng and Hinrich continue to be solid supporting scorers, if Noah can maintain his high energy on defense, if Tyrus Thomas focus' on his play and not his contract and if the front office can pull off one small move (maybe the Aaron Grey trade will be it), I think the Bulls can advance as high as the fifth seed in the conference. Is it likely? No. But stranger things have happened. Like the team winning three consecutive games out west.

Where's the drama?

I want to be excited for this Sunday's NFL games. Championship Sunday isn't a normal NFL weekend, but it's as close to normal we'll have for the next eight mounts. So savor it while it's here, right? I wish. Instead, the following six facts have me fearing the worst:

• Jets 24, Bengals 14
• Cowboys 34, Eagles 14
• Ravens 33, Patriots 14
• Saints 45, Cardinals 14
• Colts 20, Ravens 3
• Vikings 34, Cowboys 3

Only two of the eight playoff games this year have been worth watching, which doesn't produce good odds that Sunday's will be must-see TV. There's a better chance Stephen Colbert actually competes in Vancouver this February than seeing two games on Sunday that come down to the final minutes. Do I want this to happen? Of course. Do I think it will happen? Not a chance.

So then the question becomes, Which game will be the blowout? The NFC game features the conference's 1 and 2 seeds, meaning it's expected to be a close game. Then again, the road team in that matchup has struggled outside of their building for the past month. In the AFC, it's a 1 seed with a future Hall-of-Fame QB versus a 5 seed with a rookie under center, which has the makings of a lopsided score. But that game features two physical defenses, ones that will make sure nothing gets out of hand.

In the past, championship weekend has always been a bit anti-climactic. Until last year's game, which was a nine-point Pittsburgh victory, only three AFC championship games had been decided by ten points or less since 1999. Only one of those, the 2007 Colts-Patriots game, came down to the final minutes. The NFC title game has been a little better. Last year's Cardinals-Eagles game was exciting down the stretch, and 2008's Giants-Packers matchup was an OT thriller. But before that, mostly snoozefests. While the Super Bowl has had a lot of all-time classics over the past decade, surprisingly the championship games have not.

Here are my predictions:

Jets at Colts

To beat Indianapolis, a team has to run the ball to keep Peyton Manning off the field, while at the same time containing the Colts high-powered offense. The Jets ran the ball better than anybody all season and have a defense that stopped San Diego dead in their tracks a week ago. I smell an upset. New York also knows they can beat Indy, having done in just one month ago when Jim Caldwell rested his starters. With a big game from Thomas Jones, a smart game from Mark Sanchez and the NY defense somehow baiting Manning into throwing a costly pick, the upset smell is getting stronger. A team that played on Wild Card weekend has made it to the Super Bowl four consecutive years. Make it five. Jets 23, Colts 18

Vikings at Saints

Minnesota's offense looked damn good on Sunday versus the Cowboys. They scored 34 points, rolled up 323 yards and didn't turn the ball over once. All of that was upended by what the Saints did against Arizona. New Orleans had 45 points, 418 points and also were turnover-free. Point is, it's going to take a monster effort from Favre, Peterson and the rest of the Minnesota offense to win at the Superdome on Sunday. With that crowd noise and with the way Drew Brees can pick apart a defense like Billy Madison playing dodgeball against first graders, I find it hard to believe that Brad Childress can come up with a gameplan to stop them. Saints 35, Vikings 17

Last week: 1-3
Season to date: 170-94

Go hard or go home

Best football weekend of the year, no question. The eight best teams, four great games, with everything on the line. Last weekend produced three snoozers and an instant classic, as well as a 2-2 record for me. This weekend will be better, in both departments. I think I have a good feel for all these games, though we all know anything can happen in the playoffs. Here's my divisional round breakdown, by day.

Saturday

Cardinals at Saints: Remember last week, when I promised that the Green Bay-Arizona game would be the highest scoring of the weekend? It ended up being the most points scored ever in a playoff game. Here's my bold statement for this week: Drew Brees will have 100 or more passing yards than Kurt Warner. Gutsy yes, but I just don't see Arizona doing it two weeks in a row. (Though Mr. Warner does seem to pay his best in the playoffs) Three losses in a row to end the regular season halted New Orleans' momentum, but I see them jumping out early and then holding on for a victory. Saints 42, Cardinals 28

Ravens at Colts: Last time these teams faced off in the playoffs, it was an all field goal battle. That was the old Ravens, with Steve McNair (RIP) at quarterback and no threats to take it to the house. These are the new Ravens, with Ray Rice at running back and recent experience of winning big playoff road games. Indianapolis comes into this game having had the last three weeks off, and I think it costs them. Peyton Manning is amazing and the Colts D isn't too shabby, but I'll take momentum over a team that will be spending the first half trying to recharge their batteries. Ravens 27, Colts 23

Sunday

Cowboys at Vikings: Once again, I will be doing a live chat during the game, so go to NFL Blog Blitz to check it out. (While you're there, read my post on why I hate the Vikings) This is the most intriguing game of the weekend, because there are so many subplots. America's Team vs. America's QB, which is also America's Most Hated Team vs. America's Most Hated QB. Two coaches who looked as if they just awoke from a decade-long comas. Two fan bases who believe their moment for glory is upon them. Two ferocious pass rushes, two dynamic running games, two quarterbacks who NEED this win. I like Dallas for a couple reasons. One, Adrian Peterson hasn't been the real AP for a while now, with seven straight games under 100 yards rushing. That limits what the Vikes can do and increases the chances that DeMarcus Ware will carve up Fave like John Madden's Turducken. Two, because I don't see how the Vikings limit Miles Austin and Jason Witten while also stopping the Cowboys draw play, which has been their best weapon. Felix Jones will break a big one on the Metrodome rug and Tony Romo does enough to not blow it. Cowboys 31, Vikings 27

Jets at Chargers: Could New York be for real? They looked like a squad built for the playoffs last week in Cincinnati, with a fast and physical defense complementing an efficient running game. But that was the Bengals, this is the Chargers. San Diego has a fast and physical defense of their own, plus an efficient running game and a dynamic passing attack. New York can keep it close for a while, and if it gets to the fourth quarter with the score within three points, anything can happen. But I see to much Rivers, Gates, LDT and co. Chargers 28, Jets 17

Last week: 2-2
Season to Date: 169-91

Going or staying

Took a trip to the United Center Monday night for Bulls-Pistons. Fun time, especially since Detroit ended up not making the trip and they sent the DePaul Blue Demons in their place. But watching it from the 300-level made me realize something that's been on my mind for a while: sports on TV and sports live are becoming two completely different experiences.

You're most likely thinking, 'Of course it's a different experience. Who are you, Mark McGwire, finally figuring out that it's no longer the mid-90s?' And yes, it has always been a different experience. But more so than ever, watching the game from your couch and watching the game from the stadium are polar opposites. I'm not sure which is better, and really, it doesn't matter. My question is, are these two unique experiences good for sports?

Growing up, I loved the rare opportunities of going to live sporting events. I attended my first Cubs game when I was four, my first Bears game at age seven and my first Bulls game was at eight. As I grew older, the trips to the stadium increased, peaking when I started working at Wrigley Field in July 2003. Being a part of the crowd allows a fan to really connect with his or her team, to really feel like they are making a difference with their support. Siting in a stadium seat allows one to feel the moment, to experience the buzz when a team is making a rally and the explosion of joy and delight when something really good happens on the field. Seeing a game up-close (or even in bad seats) provides a sense of authenticity, because you are watching the part of the game you want to watch, not the one that the TV cameras have decided to show.

Recent innovations have made the stadium experience better than ever (Everywhere except Wrigley). Larger scoreboards, spacious concourses and special giveaways make fans remember why it is so special to attend games live. Not to mention the rare chances to overhear athletes talking, seeing a zoomed in look at the facial expressions, and the chance to witness a 'I was there when so-and-s happened' game.

But it's not all good views and joyful applause at the stadium. There's the hassle of parking, the un-comforts of sitting in rows of chairs separated by only a few inches and constant distractions from the game itself. The personalized angle a fan sees is occasionally great, but many times it pales in comparison to the multiple views shown on TV. And of course at the game, fans must deal with any obstacle mother nature throws their way, from excessive heat to pounding rain to teeth-chattering cold.

At home, things have changed as well. High-def television allows fans to see clearer than ever before, and packages like Sunday Ticket and NBA Full Court allow fans to see more than ever before. Fantasy sports revolves around tracking players from multiple teams, so going to the game to see just your favorites no longer makes sense. And DVR allows fans to schedule games on their terms, fast forward commercials and take extra looks at an instant replay. Why pay lots of money to sit in the cold and watch your team lose when you can invite your buddies over, follow all the games and not have to wait in line for the bathroom?

Now more than ever, teams need fans to attend games live. Due to the economy's current state, teams are losing money left and right. Making sure fannies are in the seats is the #1 task the teams must deal with, or at least #1B after winning games. But more and more, it's becoming a difficult choice for fans to go or stay.

It's been a long time, I shouldn't of left you

Wow, it's been a while. Sorry about that.

So much stuff has happened in the past month, I feel obligated to discuss it. But where to start? Here are just some of the things that have taken place since I last posted here on the blog, in no chronological or importance order.

Bears beat Favre on Monday Night Football, Cubs trade Bradley to Seattle, Bulls try to fire coach but can't, Gators lose SEC Title, Bears keep Lovie but fire Turner, Colt McCoy almost cost Texas chances of playing for National Championship, Colts don't go for 16-0, Saints lose three straight, Gilbert Arenas packs heat, Ingram wins Heisman, Tiger story gets crazier, Dawson voted into Baseball HOF, Bulls begin to get healthy and play better, Urban Meyer retires, Urban Meyer reconsiders, Urban Meyer returns, NU plays thrilling Outback Bowl but comes up short, I got a full-time job with Sports Illustrated, Chris Johnson tops 2K yards, I graduated college, Chris Henry RIP, the decade ended, 'Bama tops Texas for National Title.

OK, so all but one of those items is true...you're on your own to determine which one. The point is, I missed a lot. But I can make it up to you. How? With some awesome NFL playoff picks.

Jets at Bengals
Saw most of this game last Sunday and, um, wait, what happened? Cincinnati had nothing to play for, the Jets had everything to gain and the game was a snoozer. Don't expect a repeat. If both Indy and Cinci hadn't shut it down early to save themselves for the playoffs, the Jets would be on vacation right now. Instead they take a rookie QB into the Queen City to face a rested Bengals team who is not only playing for their pride and city, but also a fallen teammate. The Thomas Jones vs. Cedric Benson running back matchup intrigues me, but that's basically a draw. What's not even is the rest of the offenses. Even though the New York D is playing great right now, I like the Bengals, and I like 'em big. Bengals 27-7

Eagles at Cowboys
First off a promotional plug - follow this game with me during a live chat on NFL Blog Blitz on Sat. night at 7 central. What will you find if you tune in? One hell of a game. Each of the past four seasons, a team that played on Wild Card weekend has made it to the Super Bowl. My pick this year is whoever wins this game. The Eagles have an explosive offense, a solid secondary and extensive big game experience. Dallas has the ability to pound away with a solid run game as well as throwing to Miles Austin and Jason Witten. All year I've been picking against the Cowboys in big games, but I think they finally deserve a shot. Cowboys 31-28

Ravens at Patriots
Tough game to figure out, especially because this is the only game of the weekend that didn't take place last weekend. Baltimore is solid, but I can't say Joe Flacco is trustworthy on the road. Tom Brady is obviously trustworthy, but without much support on the Patriots offense. I like the Ravens for one reason: Ray Rice. The former Rutgers star can run through and past the average New England defense, at least enough to give Flacco room to throw. It almost seem sacrilegious to pick against Brady, Belichick and the Pats, especially in N.E., but that's exactly what I'm doing. Ravens 24-18

Packers at Cardinals
My most confident prediction of the weekend is this: Green Bay-Arizona will be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Just look at all the talent on that side of the ball for both teams. That being said, I'm not very confident on who to pick. Green Bay has been playing great lately (kills me to say that), including a blowout a week ago in Arizona. The Cardinals haven't been right since defeating the Vikings in early December. But I basically said the same thing a year ago, and then Arizona was within one or two plays from winning the Super Bowl. Can history repeat itself? I'm saying no. Packers 35-30

Regular season record: 167-89

All Q, No A

I haven't blogged for a while, due to school, work, looking for work once I'm done with school, etc. All this time without writing though has put a lot on my mind. So to honor that, here are 10 questions that have been rattling around my skull the last few weeks. Please comment if you have any answers, though I admit that there are a few rhetorical ones. (And not all 10 are sports related)

1. Do the Bears really have to play the final five games of the season? We already know what they are, a team not talented enough to beat good teams with their offense or their defense. Lets just fast forward to the playoffs so that I and the rest of Chicago don't have to continue to suffer.
2. Why does McDonalds stop selling breakfast at 10:30 a.m.? Maybe on weekdays it makes sense, but on Saturdays and Sundays, they should extend it until noon. I have McDonalds breakfast maybe twice a year, and it's because the food is insanely unhealthy and it's impossible for me to wake up, get organized and go to Mickey D's before 10:30 in the morning.
3. Is Carlos Dunlap really that stupid? Getting busted for a DUI at 3 a.m. the week before the biggest college football game of the year. Dunlap may have an insane amount of talent and a high IQ on the field, but he seems to lack some intelligence off it.
4. Can Tebow do it again? I'm biased, but that won't stop me from saying yes. The Gators D, even without Dunlap, will hold down 'Bama enough for Tebow and whichever skill players show up to put up enough points to give Florida their second consecutive SEC Championship. My pick: Florida 27, Alabama 20
5. Does the most famous athlete in the world really have to start off a voicemail to his mistress, one he has texted about 300 times, with the phrase, "Hi, this is Tiger..."? Do that and you deserve to be caught.
6. Is there a funnier show out there than 'Curb Your Enthusiasm'? If so, I'd love to see it. Larry David may go down as the smartest/funniest/most influential person in television during my lifetime.
   
7. LeBron, DWade, Chris Bosh and I all want to know, is it the summer of 2010 yet?
8. Instead of making another album full of crazy sex songs, would it be possible for R. Kelly to just focus on making more chapters for 'Trapped in the Closet'? That would put a smile on my face for weeks.
9. How much more time until the Bears can fire Lovie, Jerry, Ron, Babich, the entire defensive line, most of the offensive line and anybody else associated with this horrible season? Like the President said, it's time for change.
10. Am I picking the Buffalo (already lost), Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Carolina, Houston, San Diego, New York Giants, Seattle, Minnesota and Baltimore to win this weekend? This one I actually have a response to: Yes. (Season to date record: 119-58)
    

Three's Company

Thoughts on my three teams as we approach Turkey Day.

Bears: Despite what the newspapers or bloggers or radio talk show idiots or anybody says, it's still waaaaay too early to grade the Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton trade that took place in April. First off, this trade was about long-term success, not the first 10 games of 2009. Just like you don't evaluate a movie based on its opening scene, you can't judge a trade by such a small sample, especially a trade that was made for the long haul. Second, people need to realize what Cutler and Orton are each working with. Not only do the Broncos have better skill position players than the Bears, but their offensive line is far superior. And while a quarterback is supposed to be like a point guard and make everybody around him better, it is impossible when the QB can't even stand up for longer than a second. Just ask Aaron Rodgers. Yes the trade looks bad now, and it seems that Cutler will never throw a TD pass in the red zone. But be patient; things always turn out well for Bears quarterbacks. (Slamming head into wall)

Bulls: If the Bulls get Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh, it made sense. But I'll say it again for the 100th or so time: Letting Ben Gordon leave hurts the team more than people realize. Not only was he a clutch shooter who wanted the ball at the end of games, but he was a player who teams had to watch and defend the entire 48 minutes. This season Derrick Rose has had less room to drive the lane, Brad Miller can't create plays from the high post and John Salmons can't shoot his fallaway from 18-feet (oh wait, yes he can). Gordon provided an element that the team sorely lacks this year, a reason the Bulls are 28th out 30 in both 3-pointers made a game and 3-point percentage.

Cubs: It's that time of year again. It's getting cold (boo), eggnog is back in stores (yay) and the Cubs are figuring out who they need to sign (groan). With new owner Tom Rickets still feeling things out, it's unlikely the team will make a big-time free agent signing in the mold of Soriano or Fukudome. Instead, I expect a lot of small moves and maybe a trade or two. Dealing Milton Bradley is step one, but here's what I want to see: A real center fielder, a second baseman, a few relief pitchers who can go in the seventh and eighth innings and some speed. One rumor has them looking at Detroit Tigers (and Chicago native) center fielder Curtis Granderson, which would be amazing. But these are the Cubs were talking about, so I fully expect there to be several holes in the lineup and pitching staff when spring training begins in February.

NFL Winners for Week 11: Carolina (already lost), Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, New Orleans, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Arizona, San Diego, Cincinnati, New England, Philadelphia, Tennessee

Gotta be the shoes

I promise, there will be a real post coming later this week, but had to share a trio of videos with you. Watch the first two and then you'll understand the relevance of the third.









Ron Artest is now in the same prestigious group as Austin Powers' nemesis Random Task and an Iraqi journalist. What an idiot.

Gut check game

I had planned on posting a mid-season evaluation of the Bears today, along with my selection of tonight's highly-important game against the 49ers. But annoying distractions like school and work seem to have gotten in the way, so instead, you'll have to settle for this mini-preview today and hopefully something more in-depth tomorrow.

When the NFL schedule was initially released back in April, this game caught a lot of people's attention. Not only because it was a mid-week game, which tends to be noteworthy, but also because of the opponent. San Francisco is coached by Samurai Mike Singletary (he stops 'em cold, part of the defense, big and bold), a Hall-of-Fame player and a legend in Chicago. He's trying to build the Niners the same way as Lovie Smith is trying build the Bears - to be a tough, hard-nosed team. Considering San Fran has lost four straight games and the Bears have been embarrassed two of the past three weeks, it seems to be working great.

Of course some team has to win this game. I'm taking the 49ers for two reasons. One, because they have Frank Gore and the Bears run defense has been dreadful since the bye week. Two, because they are at home and didn't have to fly across the country on a short week. That's the only thing that separates these two teams. Switch the home field and I take the Bears. Sit 'The Inconvenient Truth' and I take the Bears.

So I'll say 27-20 49ers in a game that won't be as ugly as last Sunday was...I promise. The Bears have to show some heart one of these weeks, and I think this is it.

November 4 will define Bears

Sunday starts a tough four-game stretch for the Bears: home versus defending NFC Champ Arizona, at San Francisco on a Thursday night, home versus the other team in last January’s NFC Championship game, Philadelphia, on a Sunday night, and then a trip up to the Metrodome to face the first place Vikings. Four games, four challenges, but five possible outcomes for the Bears.

If the team runs the table (highly unlikely), they will certainly make the playoffs and may even win the NFC North. A 5-0 November, including last Sunday’s win versus Cleveland, would quiet all the Jay Cutler trade doubters…at least until the first loss in December. And there’s no doubt that the entire coaching staff would return next season, bar an epic collapse during the season’s final weeks.

Going 3-1 during the stretch would be an accomplishment as well. Considering the two thought-to-be tough stretches of the schedule at the start of the year were the first three games (at Green Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, at Seattle, which the Bears went 2-1) and this month, it would look good for Cutler and coach Lovie Smith’s resume that they navigated through each of them successfully. Assuming the Bears handle their business in December/January (vs. St. Louis, vs. Green Bay, at Baltimore, vs. Minnesota on Monday night and at Detroit, the team would play in the post-season.

I’d argue the most probable scenario is a 2-2 record, which would leave the Bears exactly where they stand right now - in the middle of the pack in the NFC. Considering of their three losses, two have come on nationally-telivised night games, losses to the 49ers and Eagles seem likely. That would mean though that the Bears beat Minnesota on November 29, which would make more than a couple of people smile for a variety of reasons. Like with the previous route, a 2-2 record would mean the December stretch is given extra importance.

A 1-3 record and the season’s likely over. It seems highly unlikely that the Bears could enter December at 5-6 and make the playoffs. Unless the one win is against the Vikings, combined with more Minnesota losses and an impressive end of season run, it will mark three consecutive playoff-less seasons following the Super Bowl appearance in 2007. So far, the common theme in all the losses for the Bears this season has been turnovers. If that continues, major questions will arise about why the Cutler trade was made in the first place.

Finally, there is 0-4. Lovie Smith, Ron Turner and the rest of the coaching staff is toast. So is much of the defense, which is getting up there in age. GM Jerry Angelo could be updating his resume as well if anybody in the McCaskey family is even paying attention at this point. Major criticism will land at the feet of Cutler, Matt Forte and all the other under-performers in 2009, especially since the Bears don’t have a draft pick in the first two rounds in next April’s draft.

So how’s it going to go? Not to seem predictable, but I’m guessing based on how the season has gone, 2-2 seems most likely. With the exception of the Cincinnati game, the Bears seem to play their opponents well. Against good teams - Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta - they play well and the game goes down to the wire. Against bad teams - Detroit, Cleveland - they don’t play particularly well, but still are able to get the job done. Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all good or really good teams, ones that will require the Bears to play as well as they have all season. I still say the December/January schedule sets up well, with home games against division rivals as well as contents with the pathetic Rams and Lions. Going 2-2 in November may not be preferable, but it doesn’t kill the Bears season.

Now of course are my Week 9 picks, with winners in bold.


Washington at Atlanta

Arizona at Chicago

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Houston at Indianapolis

Miami at New England

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

Kansas City at Jacksonville

Carolina at New Orleans

Detroit at Seattle

San Diego at New York Giants

Tennessee at San Francisco

Dallas at Philadelphia

Pittsburgh at Denver

Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 76-40

Are you ready for some overeactions?

There are only 16 regular season games on each team’s NFL schedule. Only 16. That means unlike baseball, where there are 10-times that many, or basketball, with about five-times as many games, there is no waiting in the NFL. No adjustment period for new acquisitions to get comfortable, no time for a rookie to learn the playbook, no time to complain about injuries. With only 16 games, every Sunday is important.

And that actually is the best thing about the NFL. The limited number of games means that each week, there are matchups with playoff implications. As a fan, you can’t miss anything, because there’s only four months of actual (regular season) football compared to the seven months of football hype. Each game feels like a movie on limited release in theaters - there’s only a little bit of time to see it, so make sure not to skip it.

Having only 16 games is also the worst thing about the NFL. Because each game is an event, fans, coaches and the media take every little thing that happens and magnify it to Terrence Cody size. Overreactions are as normal in professional football as Brad Childress time management mistakes. It’s the reason team’s are either written in as Super Bowl contenders or written off as horrible failures so early in the season, and too often, these harsh predictions are confused with actual fact.

Take the Bears for example. Last week they laid an egg with an embarrassing loss at Cincinnati. Maybe the worst game of the entire Lovie Smith era. No excuse for that. But based on what people have written or said in Chicago this week, you’d think that the Bengals game officially ended the Bears season. One person I spoke with on the train said the Bears were set to lose four of their next five games. Another said the team would eventually get eclipsed by the Lions in the NFC North standings.

Did I miss something? Do games in southern Ohio now count for 16 games instead of one? Do the Bears still have 10 games to go - six of which are at home? Is the team still 3-3 with wins over the defending Super Bowl champs and on the road in Seattle? Yes, the Bears played like a middle school team last Sunday. Jay Cutler and Matt Forte couldn’t get anything going on offense, and the defense made Cedric Benson look like the player the Bears drafted with the fourth pick in the 2004 draft. It was 31-0 before halftime and everybody associated with the team should be embarrassed.

But it’s impossible to say that this game ends the Bears season. There’s just too much time left to play. Remember the 2006 Indianapolis Colts, the team that ended up beating the Bears in Super Bowl XLI? In a week 14 game at Jacksonville, Indy was absolutely shredded, losing 44-17. The Jaguars ran for 375 yards on 42 caries, an average of about nine yards per rush. Three Jacksonville players ran for more than 70 yards and the Colts allowed four rushing TDs. It was clearly a bad loss for Indianapolis, and afterward, analysts and fans alike all said there was no way the Colts could win the title because their run defense was too poor.

Then safety Bob Sanders returned to the lineup after an injury, and in four playoff games that season, the Colts never allowed more than 100 yards on the ground. Run defense - and Rex Grossman - were the reasons the Colts dominated the Bears in the Super Bowl. In week 14 Indianapolis was left for dead, and by week 19, they were the champions of the world.

Now I’m not saying the Bears are going to win the Super Bowl. Maybe the faults they showed in the Bengals game will persist all year long and the team goes from a very promising 3-1 start to a dreadful 6-10 finish. Perhaps Lovie loses his job (Ron Turner has to go as well). But before that happens, the team has 10 more games to play. Yes, there’s only ten left. Then we have to wait all the way until next September for more football. So lets try and enjoy it.


Here are my Week 8 picks, with winners in bold.

Houston at Buffalo

Cleveland at Chicago

Seattle at Dallas

St. Louis at Detroit

San Francisco at Indianapolis

Miami at New York Jets

New York Giants at Philadelphia

Denver at Baltimore

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Oakland at San Diego

Minnesota at Green Bay

Carolina at Arizona

Atlanta at New Orleans

Last Week: 7-6
Season to Date: 70-33

A very Tweet NBA Preview

Twitter is the new craze these days, with millions of people describing their every thought, feeling, joke, outrage and up-to-the-second detail of their life, 140 characters at a time. While I’m not a user, mainly because I don’t really have the energy to update my life on a consistent basis, I do enjoy reading the accounts of a few people. It’s interesting to see how much - or how little - information one can share in that amount of space.

With that in mind, I wanted to see how well I could do communicating via Tweet. So here is my 2009-10 NBA Preview, with each team preview, awards pick and reasoning coming in the form of a 140-charachter rant.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1) Cleveland: Shaq clogs the lane too much for my liking, but LBJ will be a monster in his contract year, even better than 08-09s 28/8/7.

2) Orlando: Losing Hedu hurts, but Vince and Brandon Bass added to D12, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson make ‘09s East champs one powerful squad.

3) Boston: The return of KG, the addition of Rasheed and the emergence of Rondo make Boston an interesting team. But will all the pieces of the puzzle fit?

4) Atlanta: Young and exciting team is in a make or break year with Joe Johnson about to be a free agent. Adding Jamal Crawford really helps them.

5) Chicago: Losing BG will be costly at the end of games, but expect the jump to come from healthy Deng and improved DRose, JoNoah, Salmons.

6) Toronto: For selfish reasons, hope the Raps suck and Bosh wants to head to the Chi. But I like Hedu and love DeRozen, meaning the playoffs.

7) Washington: Love Gilbert, love Caron, love Jamison, but who knows if they can stay healthy or what affect Flip Saunders will have.

8) Detroit: By the end of year, I promise Piston fans will love BG’s shooting and hate his lack of defense/ball handling. Breakout player: Will Bynum.

9) Charlotte: Larry Brown teams always do well in year 2. Expecting big things out of one of my favorite recent college players, DJ Augustin.

10) Philadelphia: Still don’t get why they gave Elton Brand $82M if they want to run. Big question @ PG after letting Andre Miller go.

11) Miami: Dear DWade, please come to the Bulls. Please come to the Bulls. Please come to the Bulls. Please come to the Bulls.

12) Indiana: No clue what Bird is doing. Either knock the pieces down and get a top-5 pick or make a move for an elite player.

13) New York: I understand what they’re doing by clearing all their cap space, but they are really screwed if LeBron doesn’t show up in 2010.

14) New Jersey: DHarris, Courtney Lee and Lopez are all solid, and T-Will was a smart pick, but this team is going to lose a lot of games.

15) Milwaukee: Feel bad for Michael Redd. Not only does he have to spend his winters in Wisc. but this team he’s on is garbage.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) LA Lakers: I’m guessing by 1-1-2010, Phil will regret signing Artest. He’s selfish, an ego-maniac and doesn’t fit the triangle. Still, they have Kobe.

2) San Antonio: The best off-season in the NBA, which is saying something. Jefferson, McDyess and Blair all should be major help to the Big 3.

3) Denver: After a small taste of success in 09, big year for ‘Mello in 2010. Big as in top 3 MVP voting. Having Billups all season helps.

4) Dallas: Dirk + JKidd + The Matrix + Drew Gooden’s beard = Team I like.

5) Utah: If there’s one rule in the NBA, it’s don’t get on Michael Jordan’s bad side. Rule 2? Never under-estimate Jerry Sloan.

6) New Orleans: Picked NO to win it all last year. Not making that mistake again. Still, CP3 is too good to let them fall far.

7) Portland: Bunch of nice pieces, but maybe too many guys who think they need the rock to be successful. Big question once again is Oden.

8) Phoenix: If Amare stays healthy, if Nash can find his groove again and if they get a breakout year from somebody, the Suns can be dangerous again.

9) Oklahoma City: Really talented roster, but still a year away. Everybody’s got a crush on Durant - justifiably- but I love Russell Westbrook as much.

10) Golden State: It’s a shame the Steph Curry had to be drafted into this insane asylum. He’s still going to be fun to watch.

11) Houston: Yao-Out. TMac-Out. Artest-Gone. So it’s going to be tough. But this is a tough team who will be better than expected.

12) LA Clippers: They’d be higher if Blake Griffin was healthy. But he isn’t, and they’re the Clippers, so it’s back to the basement.

13) Memphis: I feel horrible for Rudy Gay. He’s the best player on the team, but with Mayo, Randolph and AI, he’ll never see the ball.

14) Minnesota: Would be more entertaining if Rubio had come over, but there’s some nice pieces on this team. Still need a scorer.

15) Sacramento: Tyreeke Evans is going to be a star. Can’t say many other nice things about this roster.


East Finals) Cavs over Magic: The addition of Shaq helps guard Howard, and LeBron will be more motivated than ever.

West Finals) Spurs over Lakers: I just like this matchup for SA. Duncan, McD, Blair and Bonner take care of LAs bigs, and Parker, Manu, Jeff and Mason do enough outside.

NBA Finals) Cavs over Spurs in 6: LeBron finally wins his ring, stays in Cleveland, mass drowning avoided in Lake Erie.

MVP) LeBron James: Kobe and ‘Mello will provide little competition for the King.

ROY) Jonny Flynn: Blake Griffin is hurt, Rubio’s in Spain and Curry's in hell, so it’s up to Flynn and Tyreeke Evans. I like the ex-Orange.

1st Team All-NBA) Wade, Kobe, ‘Mello, LBJ23 and Howard

2nd Team All-NBA) CP3, Pierce, Bosh, Dirk and Duncan

Close ones define Bears

Bears-Bengals this Sunday. Also known as the Benson Bowl. Should be known as the Heart Attack Bowl.

The Bears have played five games, which have been decided by 6, 3, 6, 24 and 7 points. Take away the Lions game, and the Bears average result has been less than a six points.

The Bengals have played six games, which have been decided by 5, 7, 3, 3, 3 and 11 points. Take away last week’s game versus the Texans, and the Bengals are averaging final scores that are just over four points.

So you know that this Sunday’s game is going to come down to the end. It’s going to be up to either Jay Cutler and the offense or Lance Briggs and the defense to come up with the big play if the Bears are going to win. Last week’s meltdown in Atlanta was devastating for a number of reasons, but the main one was the Bears horrible execution in the fourth quarter. That can’t happen again if the Bears are going to win in Cincinnati.

As stressful as these games are, Bears fans should be used to it. In 2008, the Bears had 10 games decided by a touchdown or less. Their point differential that season was +25, which was 14 points fewer than the Packers, who won three fewer games than the Bears did. This year, through the first five games, they're on that same pace, at +20, while Green Bay again is at +39.

Close games are usually decided by three keys: coaching, turnovers and penalties. Though I've criticized him in the past, I think Lovie Smith is doing a good job this year at managing the defense. Considering there is nobody on the 53-man roster that I would valid NFL safety and the linebacking corps is more beat up that the Bluesmobile at the end of Jake and Elwood's adventure, it's difficult for me to hate on Smith's performance as the team's new defensive coordinator. My hope is that new defensive end Gaines Adams provides the consistent pass rush the team has lacked the last few weeks.

At -1 differential, it would seem that turnovers have been a minor deal, not a HUGE one. Wrong. While eight takeaways compared to nine giveaways isn't horrible, it has been the location of these turnovers. Too often the fumbles or picks have come in the red zone, such as last week's multiple fumbles by Matt Forte inside the five and Cutler's pick when the Bears were inside field goal range. Both losses, to Green Bay week 1 and Atlanta last Sunday, can be directly tied to giving the ball away when it mattered most.

And then the penalties. Against Green Bay, it was the risk of having 12 men on the field that forced a botched punt, leading to Packer points. Against Atlanta, the Bears did give Atlanta a first down because of 12 men on the field, and also moved a 4th-and-1 back to a 4th-and-6 on the final drive thanks to Orlando Pace's false start. Overall, the team only has 31 penalties for 266 yards, which both rank in the bottom third of the league. But like the turnovers, its been when and where they take place, not how many of them there are.

So expect another nail biter in Southern Ohio this Sunday. The Bengals don't blow people out, instead opting for physical games that are decided in the final minutes. The Bears don't blow people out, instead opting for games that are decided by turnovers and penalties. Which will prevail? See who I like in my Week 7 picks, winners in bold.

Green Bay at Cleveland

San Diego at Kansas City

Indianapolis at St. Louis

Minnesota at Pittsburgh

New England at Tampa Bay (in London)

San Francisco at Houston

New York Jets at Oakland

Buffalo at Carolina

Chicago at Cincinnati

Atlanta at Dallas

New Orleans at Miami

Arizona at New York Giants

Philadelphia at Washington

Last Week: 8-6
Season to Date: 63-27